Ramblings: Samsonov Struggles, Red Wing Kane Red Hot, Slafkovsky Scores Again (Dec 23)

Ian Gooding

2023-12-23

Goaltending in fantasy hockey is fickle; hence, the popularity of Zero G and other methods of fading goalies. I won't profess to being a hockey training expert, but it seems like performance is more psychologically-based at the goaltending position than at any other. Ilya Samsonov's interview after Thursday's debacle (five goals allowed in less than two periods) demonstrates that he has flat-out lost confidence in himself. Samsonov is still rostered in the majority of Yahoo and Fantrax leagues after he seemed to be a promising option before the season, but there's no way you should be starting him right how. If an AHL stint similar to Jack Campbell is in Samsonov's future, then dropping him outright is the right move, since this might be a lost season.

The Leafs haven't announced a starting goalie for tonight (Saturday) as of the time I'm writing this, but it seems nearly certain that Martin Jones will receive the nod against Columbus. I nearly called this an easy matchup, but then I remembered that the Blue Jackets pasted the Sabres for nine goals on Tuesday, so there's no such thing as that. Jones is hardly the savior in net for the Leafs, but he is still rostered in fewer than half of Yahoo and Fantrax leagues. He's worth at least a spot start if you need one the last day before the holiday break.

After a slow start, Elias Lindholm is starting to find his game. With a goal and two assists on Thursday, Lindholm has made his way onto the hot list with six points in his last five games. With offense a concern in Calgary (ahem, Jonathan Huberdeau), Lindholm averages 21 minutes per game and has skated over 20 minutes per game in each of his last six games. I drafted Lindholm in one league and picked him up off the waiver wire in another as a scoring depth option. If he's still available in your league (63% Yahoo), then he might be your waiver wire's most reliable scoring option.

I haven't spent much time looking at the NHL EDGE stats this season, but one interesting number there caught my attention recently. In case you're wondering what NHL EDGE is, it measures numbers such as shot speed, skating speed, and skating distance through puck and player tracking. The interesting number was courtesy of Valeri Nichushkin, who on Thursday recorded the top skating speed of any player this season at 23.96 mph. The video quality isn't great, but Nichushkin's burst shows that he seems to fit right in on the high-pace Avalanche top line with Nathan MacKinnon.

Nichushkin has been particularly hot recently with 11 points in his last six games, and he has crossed the point-per-game threshold (32 PTS in 31 GP). I'll admit that I wasn't keen on drafting Nichushkin this season after the mysterious event that occurred in a hotel room during the playoffs. But for those who looked past that situation in drafting him, he's paid off in a major way.

Alexander Kerfoot was hot, then cold, and now he's hot again. With three points on Thursday, Kerfoot now has five points in his last three games. Before that, he followed up a stretch of nine points in four games with no points in five games. The recent hot streak in and of itself wouldn't be enough to grab my attention, but he has averaged at least 20 minutes in each of the last five games while primarily playing on the top line with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. Higher-upside players like Logan Cooley and Barrett Hayton have had their struggles this season (with Hayton now sidelined until February), so Kerfoot could continue to get a run here. He's very much available in fantasy leagues (6% Yahoo/14% Fantrax).

The Detroit/Philadelphia game was crazy, to say the least. The Red Wings jumped out to a 5-1 lead after the first period, but Philadelphia scored two goals within a minute of each other early in the second period. Philly then scored three more to pull ahead 6-5, but Detroit scored to tie the game less than a minute after the Flyers' go-ahead goal. Eventually the Red Wings would win in a shootout, which Wings fans wouldn't have thought was necessary after the first period.

Patrick Kane had his best game as a Red Wing, scoring twice and adding an assist in the first period, then scoring the shootout winner. Kane also finished with five shots on goal in just over 20 minutes of icetime. After registering just two points in his first six games with his new team, Kane now has seven points in his last three games. Now at a point-per-game pace and averaging over three shots per game, Kane looks like he is doing fine. As I've mentioned before, don't expect peak Kane this season, since he is now 35 and coming off hip surgery. He can still be a valued fantasy contributor, though.

The new Wings top line features a reunion of former Blackhawks Kane and Alex DeBrincat along with Dylan Larkin. DeBrincat finished with three assists, while Larkin scored a goal and added an assist.

The Flyers' scoring was fairly evenly spread out, with no player recording more than two points. However, Ryan Poehling and Nicolas Deslauriers were the only Philly forwards not to register a point.

Carter Hart made his first start since December 9 after battling an illness. Even after the disastrous first period for the Flyers, Hart stayed in net for the entire game. Same with James Reimer, who is the only healthy goalie of the three-headed monster that started the season. Reimer has not earned a quality start in any of his last seven appearances, so he appears to be a risky option even if he'll pick up the bulk of the starts for the Wings in the near future.

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Merry Christmas to fantasy teams from Gabriel Vilardi, who will check out for the holiday break as one of the league's hottest players. Vilardi scored another goal on Friday, giving him goals in five consecutive games as well as 12 points and a plus-12 over his last five games. Vilardi also took four shots, ensuring that he has had at least three shots in each of his last seven games. More and more fantasy teams are taking notice, as Vilardi is now rostered in over half of Yahoo leagues. The worst thing that could happen now is that a break until Wednesday will cool him off.

Nino Niederreiter led the Jets with two goals and an assist in their 5-1 win over Boston. Both of Niederreiter's goals were on the power play, and they were his first power-play points since November 4.

Nikolaj Ehlers is playing his best hockey of the season with 10 points over his last five games. He pitched in an assist with a plus-2 and four shots on Friday. And oh look… he's finally receiving over 50% of his team's power play minutes! He still has only two power-play points all season and none since November 4.

Kyle Connor's absence doesn't seem to be hurting the Jets, who now sit at the top of the Central Division.

Knowing that I can't stream on Sunday because it is Christmas Eve, I had to make Friday my streaming day. It was a bit of a last-minute decision, so I had to settle on options from the Montreal/Chicago game. One add was Nick Foligno, who did not register a point on Friday. The other was Juraj Slafkovsky, who scored a goal and added an assist in a 5-2 win for the Canadiens.

I might have to find a way to keep Slafkovsky on my roster a bit longer, as he has multiple points in back-to-back games and he is on the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. I think he's still a way from his big breakout, since he's only 19, has played fewer than 100 games, and is a big-bodied player. But there are much worse options among the 5%-and-under crowd on the Yahoo waiver wire. The Habs are off until next Thursday, so he's not an option either for Saturday or for the busy day back from the break (Wednesday the 27th).

Cayden Primeau earned his second consecutive quality start and win on Friday, although he had not previously played since December 9. His emergence could mean that Jake Allen is traded, which makes sense because I'm hearing Allen's name a lot in rumors. However, the perception might be that Allen is not an upgrade for teams that would be in the market for a goalie. The Habs are in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed per game, but teams considered possible playoff clubs like Toronto, Tampa Bay, and New Jersey have allowed more goals per game. Allen has seven quality starts this season compared to two really bad starts. Is the idea of taking a chance on Allen really that crazy?

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
DYLAN HOLLOWAY STL
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ
LUKE HUGHES N.J
MATT CORONATO CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JET GREAVES CBJ
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
JOHN GIBSON ANA

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency DET Players
20.5 JOE VELENO MARCO KASPER JONATAN BERGGREN
16.4 DYLAN LARKIN PATRICK KANE ALEX DEBRINCAT
11.6 LUCAS RAYMOND MICHAEL RASMUSSEN J.T. COMPHER

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