Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. I wanted to sprint through a few players who I think that we’re getting to that point in the season where regardless of previous expectations, we just have to assume there won’t be any bounce-back from them this year.

One of the main culprits has been Timo Meier, but it sounds like he has been dealing with an injury. Once his explosive skating is back to its usual level, then we can judge. In the meantime, I’ll leave him in the buy-low pile.

Alex Ovechkin will have a few excellent games to get back on track and score at least the 20-goal plateau (if not 25 or 30). His hit and shot rates are down, but if you want the details on exactly what kind of decline he’s going through, there are a lot of in-depth articles out there to find.

Who I am more worried about is John Carlson. He's pacing for his worst season in seven years, and the team around him isn’t helping. The soon-to-be 34–year-old is shooting less this season than he has the entire past decade. The underlying numbers do point towards some positive regression, but there’s only so much upside that he has at this point.

Andrei Svechnikov with his injuries, Vladimir Tarasenko with his inconsistency and a new coach, and especially Andrei Kuzmenko and his current all-around situation are all players I’m avoiding for the rest of the season. Tyler Bertuzzi, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Tony DeAngelo are others that I have sold on in fantasy leagues this year as I don’t believe their fantasy value will catch up to the name value. Aside from them, most fantasy-relevant players that went in the top-200 in your drafts should have some kind of bounce back if they’re struggling mightily.

Brandon Montour will get his feet back under him, Rickard Rakell is still able to keep up with the Penguins’ stars, Matty Beniers had two points last game while looking dominant, and should bust his Sophomore slump soon. Jeff Skinner, P.L. Dubois, and Jordan Kyrou, all decent buy-lows, while Igor Shesterkin, Tage Thompson, and Jason Robertson are guys you should be doing anything to get your hands on. (dec20)

2. Goaltending in fantasy hockey is fickle; hence, the popularity of Zero G and other methods of fading goalies. I won’t profess to being a hockey training expert, but it seems like performance is more psychologically-based at the goaltending position than at any other.

Ilya Samsonov‘s interview after Thursday’s debacle (five goals allowed in less than two periods) demonstrates that he has flat-out lost confidence in himself. Samsonov is still rostered in the majority of Yahoo and Fantrax leagues after he seemed to be a promising option before the season, but there’s no way you should be starting him right how. If an AHL stint similar to Jack Campbell is in Samsonov’s future, then dropping him outright is the right move, since this might be a lost season.

Martin Jones is hardly the savior in net for the Leafs, but he is still rostered in fewer than half of Yahoo and Fantrax leagues. He’s worth at least a spot start if you need one the last day before the holiday break. (dec23)

3. After a slow start, Elias Lindholm is starting to find his game. Lindholm has made his way onto the hot list with six points in his last six games. With offense a concern in Calgary (ahem, Jonathan Huberdeau), Lindholm averages 21 minutes per game and has skated over 20 minutes per game in each of his last seven games. I drafted Lindholm in one league and picked him up off the waiver wire in another as a scoring depth option. If he’s still available in your league (63% Yahoo at time of writing), then he might be your waiver wire’s most reliable scoring option. (dec23)

4. I haven’t spent much time looking at the NHL EDGE stats this season, but one interesting number there caught my attention recently. In case you’re wondering what NHL EDGE is, it measures numbers such as shot speed, skating speed, and skating distance through puck and player tracking. The interesting number was courtesy of Valeri Nichushkin, who on Thursday recorded the top skating speed of any player this season at 23.96 mph. The video quality isn’t great, but Nichushkin’s burst shows that he seems to fit right in on the high-pace Avalanche top line with Nathan MacKinnon.

Nichushkin has been particularly hot recently with 11 points in his last six games, and he has crossed the point-per-game threshold (32 PTS in 31 GP). I’ll admit that I wasn’t keen on drafting Nichushkin this season after the mysterious event that occurred in a hotel room during the playoffs. But for those who looked past that situation in drafting him, he’s paid off in a major way. (dec23)

5. In Arizona, higher-upside players like Logan Cooley and Barrett Hayton have had their struggles this season (with Hayton now sidelined until February), so Alexander Kerfoot could continue to get a run on the top line with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. He’s very much available in fantasy leagues (6% Yahoo/14% Fantrax). (dec23)

6. Patrick Kane had his best game as a Red Wing on Friday, scoring twice and adding an assist in the first period, then scoring the shootout winner. Kane also finished with five shots on goal in just over 20 minutes of ice time.

After registering just two points in his first six games with his new team, Kane now has eight points in his last four games. Now at a point-per-game pace and averaging over three shots per game, Kane looks like he is doing fine. As I’ve mentioned before, don’t expect peak Kane this season, since he is now 35 and coming off hip surgery. He can still be a valued fantasy contributor, though. The new Wings top line features a reunion of former Blackhawks Kane and Alex DeBrincat along with Dylan Larkin. (dec23)

7. Merry Christmas to fantasy teams from Gabriel Vilardi, who will check out for the holiday break as one of the league’s hottest players. Vilardi scored another goal on Friday, giving him goals in five consecutive games as well as 12 points and a plus-12 over his last five games. Vilardi also took four shots, ensuring that he has had at least three shots in each of his last seven games. More and more fantasy teams are taking notice, as Vilardi is now rostered in over half of Yahoo leagues. The worst thing that could happen now is that a break until Wednesday will cool him off. (dec23)

The far-too-early trade analysis shows Winnipeg as the big winner of the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade. I say that because trades take years to play out before a winner should be determined. (dec22)

8. Nikolaj Ehlers is playing his best hockey of the season with 10 points over his last five games. He pitched in an assist with a plus-2 and four shots on Friday. And oh look… he’s finally receiving over 50% of his team’s power play minutes! He still has only two power-play points all season and none since November 4. Kyle Connor‘s absence doesn’t seem to be hurting the Jets, who now sit at the top of the Central Division. (dec23)

9. I might have to find a way to keep Juraj Slafkovsky on my roster a bit longer, as he has multiple points in back-to-back games and he is on the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. I think he’s still a way from his big breakout, since he’s only 19, has played fewer than 100 games, and is a big-bodied player. But there are much worse options among the 5%-and-under crowd on the Yahoo waiver wire. The Habs are off until next Thursday, so he’s not an option either for Saturday or for the busy day back from the break (Wednesday the 27^th). (dec23)

10. Cayden Primeau earned his second consecutive quality start and win on Friday, although he had not previously played since December 9. His emergence could mean that Jake Allen is traded, which makes sense because I’m hearing Allen’s name a lot in rumors. However, the perception might be that Allen is not an upgrade for teams that would be in the market for a goalie. The Habs are in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed per game, but teams considered as possible playoff clubs like Toronto, Tampa Bay, and New Jersey have allowed more goals per game. Allen has seven quality starts this season compared to two really bad starts. Is the idea of taking a chance on Allen really that crazy? (dec23)

11. The goal drought is over. Alex Ovechkin scored the game-winning goal in overtime on a power play to give the Capitals a 3-2 decision over the Blue Jackets. Ovechkin entered Thursday’s game without a goal in his previous 14 games. Over that span he had registered six assists with a minus-8, but he had still averaged nearly four shots per game.

Does the recent slump mean that Father Time has finally caught up to Ovechkin? As you might expect, his advanced stats (at time of writing) are lower than expected, in particular his 5.2 SH% and his 5.5 5-on-5 SH%. I’d expect Ovie to finish significantly higher than his current 16-goal pace, although his recent mortal stretch should prove that reaching the all-time goal record is far from a sure thing. He’s now 38, so losing power on his shot combined with a fading support cast could all factor into a downward trend. (dec22)

12.  Ivan Miroshnichenko (a name that was much easier to copy and paste than type) played in his first three NHL games this week. He has averaged less than 10 minutes per game and does not have a point, but he is also only 19 years old and could be a while from making a major impact. Miroshnichenko has 15 points in 27 games in his first AHL season. For more, see his Dobber Prospects profile. (dec22)

13. Yegor Chinakhov has six goals and 10 points over his last seven games. He was not shooting much earlier in the season, but over the past eight games, he has averaged three shots per game. With injuries to Patrik Laine and Boone Jenner, the all-Russian line of Chinakhov, Kirill Marchenko, and Dmitri Voronkov is helping fill the void for Columbus. Focusing on Chinakhov: Entering Saturday action, his advanced stats clearly showed possible regression, including a 20.5 SH% and 13.2 5-on-5 SH%. (dec22)

14. I decided to bench Timo Meier on Thursday, since he had gone nine games without a point since returning from a lower-body injury at the beginning of the month. Sure enough, Meier scored a goal on his only shot of the game later that night. I’m still not encouraged, as Meier has seen his ice time dwindle, while his shot total has dipped to less than three shots per game.

I’m reluctant to drop players that I use a high pick on, so I’ll continue to be patient and won’t drop him (single-season league). That might be a different story if this were the fantasy playoffs and I didn’t have time to wait on a slumping star. Meier is signed for $8.8 million per season until the end of 2030-31, so the Devils had better find a way to make it work. (dec22)

15. It might be time to get on board with Nick Paul again. Entering Saturday's action, Paul had a goal and two assists in back-to-back games. Paul was a popular add early in the season when he was added to the Lightning’s top power play. However, he was dropped in many leagues after he went through a nine-game stretch without a point in late November/early December. The power-play deployment is still there, and the production has returned. Paul’s six power-play goals and nine power-play points are already a career high. (dec22)

16. Not long ago, I wrote a Ramblings covering the players I was wrong about in 2023-24. Those names include Mikhail Sergachev, Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Miro Heiskanen, Jordan Kyrou, and Bowen Byram. There are still 50 games left (give or take) so maybe a couple of those guys have big second halves, but it's not looking great right now.

In the spirit of the holidays, I want to gloat a bit, so let's take a positive angle and review some of my successes from this season. Figuring out what went wrong with the players that underperformed is important to learning lessons that can be applied moving forward. On the flipside, keying in on what went right for the players that have performed to, or exceeded, lofty expectations is also important because it helps identify more of those players this year, or down the road. So, let's look at some of my fantasy successes thus far in 2023-24.

Quinton Byfield: With eight goals in 28 games, Byfield already has as many goals this season as he did in the first 99 games of his career. He has 22 points in his last 23 appearances as he's earned a bigger role, including consistent top power play minutes. One thing that was stressed in the offseason was that Byfield was turning into a high-end playmaker, and that's something he's shown full marks for in 2023-24 by managing an excellent scoring chance assist rate (as tracked by AllThreeZones) which is simply the rate at which he assists on teammate scoring chances at 5-on-5 (off the top of my head, he was easily a first-line rate the last I looked at the data). He is even up to two shots per game, which is a big improvement over last year, and has led to a 28% rise in shot attempts per minute. He is learning to use his physicality to his advantage offensively and he, the Kings, and fantasy managers are reaping the rewards. (dec21)

17. Alexis Lafrenière: Ever get something right but for the wrong reasons? My argument for Lafrenière's hopeful improvements under coach Peter Laviolette was that Laf is a guy who thrived in-and-around the net, and not necessarily playing pitch-and-catch in the offensive zone, so an aggressive forechecking scheme from Laviolette would play to the winger's strengths. That hasn't really happened as Laf and Artemi Panarin both have played fast off the transition. Regardless, Laf's goals, points, and shots per game are all career-highs as he and Panarin have excelled together whether with Vincent Trocheck or Filip Chytil as their center. The 2020 first overall pick won't take another big step in the fantasy game until he earns regular top PP minutes for New York, and there's no telling when that will be, but there have been improvements to his game and it portends very good things to come. (dec21)

[Follow the link for more…]

18. Ottawa fired head coach DJ Smith on Monday and named coaching advisor Jacques Martin as interim coach. Ottawa was in the midst of a 3-8 skid at a time when they needed to make up ground in the playoff race. It seemed inevitable.

Whatever problems the team had, their offense had suffered this year and fantasy owners need to hope they can turn it around under Martin. I have my doubts, so we’ll just have to wait and see. Martin hasn’t had a head coaching gig in the NHL in over a decade, so whether his tactics jive with the modern era remains to be seen. (dec19)

19. Last week’s Ramblings saw me do a couple lighter posts by handing out early-season awards for both forwards and defensemen. Today, we’ll move to the goalies.

Like other fantasy players, I am a believer in late-round goalie drafting. While some top goalies have been very good this year – Connor Hellebuyck and Linus Ullmark, to varying degrees – great performances from Connor Ingram, Charlie Lindgren, Adin Hill, and Cam Talbot are showing why that’s a viable strategy. To the Igor Shesterkin fantasy owners: there are a whole 53 more games to go!

Anyway, let’s get to the meaningless awards. As with the skaters, draft position will be factored into the value the following netminders have provided.

The Henrik Lundqvist Award

Of all the things that made Lundqvist so great was his consistency; he managed at least a .920 save percentage for seven straight seasons and was .910 or better for 13 straight years. Having reliable goaltending year after year is something that NHL general managers fantasize about, and that certainly extends to fantasy owners. There are elite goalies, but even elite goalies have bad years sometimes. There is still over half this regular season to go, but the pick here is certainly showing signs of that same kind of consistency again.

And the winner is… Connor Hellebuyck.

After a bad first week of the season that saw Hellebuyck allow 13 goals in three starts, posting an .843 save percentage, he has allowed just 40 goals in 19 starts since, posting a .928 save percentage. On the year, he has a .917 save percentage and staying at this level would give him seven straight seasons of .910 or better, and eight of nine in his career. Unless Andrei Vasilievskiy goes supernova in the second half, Hellebuyck may be the only goalie to appear in at least 30 games and post a save percentage of .910 or better in each of the last seven seasons. We will see where things stand in April, but Hellebuyck is showing why he’s been one of the top goalies in the league since Lundqvist’s prime years.(dec19)

[Follow the link for more…]

20. It’s been roughly six weeks since the Hurricanes announced that Frederik Andersen was sidelined indefinitely due to a blood clotting issue. On Sunday, during an interview with Carolina radio host Adam Gold, Hurricanes’ GM Don Waddell revealed that Andersen has been medically cleared to start skating again. It seems they’re hoping he’ll return to action in a month or so. If you’re higher up in your league standings and can afford to stash Andersen on your roster for the next little while, it might be a good idea to pick him up right now. Although Andersen’s numbers on the year aren’t great, and there are obvious injury concerns, he’s in a great situation behind a strong Hurricanes’ defense. (dec18)

21. Join the DobberHockey Forums today and you could enter the World Junior Championship pool that some of our awesome members are running for the 16^th year. You can find the specific post for it linked here. It’s some of the best hockey of the year. Enjoy, and Happy Holidays to all in advance.

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Have a good week, folks!
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