Ramblings: 20 Thoughts from 2023 (Jan 1)

Brennan Des

2024-01-01

In both life and fantasy hockey, perspectives shape information. The way you look at something influences what you take away from it, and how you feel about it.

Usually, when we analyze a player's production, we look at performance in a season – from October to April. However, shifting our lens gives us new perspective and allows us to observe new patterns, ones that weren't as evident from the more common season-based statline.

As we enter a new year, the perfect opportunity arises to look back at 2023, analyzing player performance from a less conventional calendar-year window. Without further ado, here are 20 fantasy hockey observations from 2023 (January 1st – December 30th).

Unfortunately, stats from December 31st are not included below because my loved ones thought celebrating New Year's Eve was more important than fantasy hockey. With that kind of attitude, it's no wonder my mom hasn't won a single fantasy hockey championship…

Joseph Wall

Among goalies who have made at least 10 appearances this year, Joseph Woll ranks 5th in save percentage, boasting a .921 through 22 games. On December 9th, the Leafs announced that Woll would be sidelined week-to-week due to a high ankle sprain. There's a decent bit of variability in recovery timelines for such an injury, but somewhere in the four-to-eight-week range seems likely. I haven't seen any news of Woll skating recently, so I imagine it'll be roughly another month before we see him back in action. Some fantasy managers who are currently stashing Woll on Injured Reserve might lose patience and drop him over the next little while, so you may be able to pick up a solid goalie for free.

Samson-off to the Marlies

On Sunday, the Leafs placed goaltender Ilya Samsonov on waivers. If he clears, Samsonov will probably get an opportunity to rediscover his game with the Marlies – Toronto's AHL affiliate. In 2023, Samsonov sports a .900 save percentage and 2.89 GAA. However, there's a shocking contrast between his numbers from last season (January-April) and this season (October-December). After posting a .918 save percentage and 2.39 GAA last season, he holds an .862 save percentage and 3.94 GAA this season. It seems 22-year-old Dennis Hildeby – who's been one of the AHL's top netminders this year – will take Samsonov's spot on the roster. Martin Jones looks like Toronto's starter for the foreseeable future, but I'm hesitant to endorse him unless wins are the only category that matters to you.

Worth His Weight in Grams

Right behind Woll in save percentage rankings for 2023 is Connor Ingram, who sports a .921 through 39 appearances this year. Ingram's strong play this season has garnered a fair bit of attention, but I certainly didn't know that his strong play dates back to the latter portion of last season. Seeing him play well for 22 games this season is nice, but with such a small sample, there's understandably fear that this run is a flash in the pan. A 39-game stretch of strong play is much more reassuring and would give me the confidence to roster Ingram for the rest of the year.

Dunn Lurking in the Shadows

Vince Dunn has 75 points in 84 games this year. Maybe I've been living under a rock, but I honestly had no idea he'd had been scoring at such an elite level. I don't think he's perceived in the same way that many of the league's big-name defensemen are, but it's time we start treating him with the same respect. Quinn Hughes is the only defenseman with more points than Dunn in 2023.

Swaying to Jeremy

It wasn't by a wide margin, but despite Linus Ullmark's heroics last season, Jeremy Swayman has been Boston's best goalie in 2023. Swayman boasts a .931 save percentage and 2.09 GAA through 40 appearances, while Ullmark holds a .928 and 2.28 through 42. I think we continue seeing a time share in Boston as long as both are under contract with the Bruins. Considering Swayman is five years younger, I imagine the team would be more willing to commit to him long term. Ullmark is an unrestricted free agent after next season, while Swayman is a restricted free agent after this campaign.   

Top Stats for Mittelstadt

Casey Mittelstadt is primed to finish 2023 as Buffalo's leading scorer, racking up 71 points through 85 appearances. The 25-year-old forward center has established himself as an important piece of Buffalo's top six, showing why he was drafted eighth overall in 2017. He's currently rostered in just 24% of Yahoo leagues.

The Math is in for Matheson

Montreal's top blueliner sits 15th in scoring among defenseman in 2023, posting 54 points through 73 appearances. 22 of those points were tallied with the man advantage, giving him more power-play points than guys like Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Hedman, and Morgan Rielly this year. He also chips in a strong number of shots per game, with a decent number of blocks as well.

Luke Hughes Looking Huge

In 2023, rookie Luke Hughes has seen a 64.4% share of New Jersey's power-play time when he's in the lineup. That's a percentage that ranks 17th among NHL blueliners – ahead of Drew Doughty (62.3%), Morgan Rielly (59.3%), Dougie Hamilton (58.3%), and Charlie McAvoy (56.6%). With fellow Devil Hamilton expected to be out until the playoffs, Hughes should see a high volume of opportunity down the stretch. He has five points in his last three games and is still available in 27% of Yahoo leagues.  

Husso that Coming?

During the 2021-22 campaign, Husso posted an impressive .919 save percentage and sparkling 25-7-6 record with the Blues. When he was traded to the Red Wings in July of 2022, many were hoping to see him carry that strong play to Detroit. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case as Husso has been one of the worst starting goalies in 2023, posting a 3.38 GAA and .889 save percentage through 50 games. Husso's struggles have opened the door for Alex Lyon to make a push for the starting role in Detroit. If you're currently rostering Husso, I recommend looking for other options.  

New Year New Normals

In 2023, among the 51 goalies that played at least 10 games, the mean save percentage was .909, and the mean goals against average was 2.76. In the past, such numbers might have been considered subpar. However, with scoring on the rise, it seems we need to get used to this new normal when assessing the performance of netminders.

High Altitude; High-Caliber; High Volume

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Colorado's stars have seen a high volume of opportunity in 2023. Among league forwards, Nathan MacKinnon (22:36) and Mikko Rantanen (22:09) rank first and second in average ice time. Both players also rank in the top-5 when looking at proportion of team power-play time they've seen.

Bad PK – Not Subban

In 2023, Montreal sits at the bottom of the league with a penalty kill success rate of 71.4%. No other team sports a rate below 75%. The Canadiens have dealt with a lot of injuries this year, so it's hard to be too critical here, especially considering they're in the middle of a rebuild. From a fantasy perspective, this information could benefit you when deciding who to bench on any given night. If you need power-play production, the skater facing Montreal might be of more help than the one facing Philadelphia.

He Will Shoot

William Nylander's outstanding season has been well documented, but his evolution into a high-volume shooter remains understated. In 2023, only seven forwards in the league have more shots than Nylander, whos' averaged 3.89 per game. He ranks ahead of many notorious shooters, including Alex Ovechkin and Jack Eichel.

He's Always Good Verhaegoal

With 42 goals in 81 games, Carter Verhaeghe sits in the top-10 for league goal-scoring this year. David Pastrnak, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews are the only players with more even-strength goals than Verhaeghe in 2023.

Vacillating on Vasilevskiy

Not too long ago, Andrei Vasilevskiy was the undisputed top-dog in fantasy formats, the only netminder you'd feel comfortable using a first-round pick on. Looking back at this past year, it's evident he hasn't been providing first-round value. In 2023, he sports a 2.86 GAA and .908 save percentage through 49 appearances. Among goalies who have played at least 10 games this past calendar year, he sits outside the top-25 in both GAA and save percentage. I'm confident he has the talent to bounce back, but considering he just returned from back surgery, and the team in front of him isn't as good as it once was, I'm not sure when that bounce back will happen.

Tampa Tumbling

Piggybacking on the last note about the Lightning not being the juggernaut they once were, I was shocked to see Tampa (.536) ranks 18th in league standings based on points percentage this year. Their performance has been more similar to the Flyers (.531) and Kraken (.571), than is has to other highly regarded teams like the Rangers (.713) and Avalanche (.693). We're talking about a sample of 80+ games too, so this is more than just a short slump. In the past, you may have felt the need to bench your players against Tampa Bay. I don't think this team should incite that same fear in your heart, at least for the foreseeable future.

New-Gen Nugent-Hopkins

With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl taking up most of the oxygen in Edmonton, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' development into an elite fantasy hockey asset hasn't been appreciated adequately. RNH ranks 15th in scoring this past calendar year, racking up 92 points over 77 games. Only five players in the league have more power-play points than RNH in 2023.

Can't Capitalize

A high-volume of opportunity with the man advantage has become a hallmark of Alex Ovechkin's deployment. It was no different this year as he led the league with a 96.4% share of Washington's power-play time. Second-place Matthew Tkachuk was far behind with an 80.2% share. The difference, however, between this year and years past, is that big opportunity hasn't resulted in big production. After posting 34 power-play points (0.41/game) in 2022, he managed just 18 (0.26/game) in 2023. After posting a 21.4% success rate with the man advantage in 2022, Washington converted on just 16.4% of their chances in 2023. Power-play struggles contribute to an anemic offense that ranks 30th in goals for per game.

Top of the Hill

Although he didn't see enough action to rack up wins like his competitors, Adin Hill posted the best numbers of netminders in 2023. He registered a.932 save percentage and 2.07 GAA through 29 games, boasting a record of 18-6-2.

Once Buff, Now Lowering

In 2022, Buffalo had one of the league's best power plays, placing fourth overall with a success rate of 25.4%. In 2023, they sat 29th in the league, with a 16.3% success rate. It's strange that they've fallen off so drastically despite having the same high-quality personnel. Conscious of their struggles, the team has tinkered with their units recently, promoting Owen Power to the top unit and dropping Rasmus Dahlin to the second group. As a result of this switch, Power could be a strong short-term add.

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Thanks for reading and Happy New Year! Hope 2024 is your best one yet! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!

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