Happy New Year!

This week, we are going to look at players in the Western Conference who are seeing top-six (forwards) or top-four (defenders) minutes, evaluating who might see that opportunity end sooner rather than later.

The flip side to these players having their ice time reduced is that someone will need to replace them.

Cam Fowler – D – Anaheim

Fowler is averaging a career-high 25:02 per night. He has averaged over 23 minutes per night in seven of his 13 prior years in the NHL. At 32 years of age and with three years remaining at $6.5 million AAV, he has Pavel Mintyukov, Jamie Drysdale, Olen Zellweger, Tristan Luneau, Noah Warren and Jackson LaCombe all coming up and inevitably taking ice time away. Fowler has somehow managed to average 57.4 percent of the time on the Ducks power play without ever being a prolific quarterback. With Mintyukov, Zellweger and Drysdale in the mix, his time there is coming to an end sooner than later.

Alex Killorn – W – Anaheim

Killorn was signed for four years at $6.25 million AAV. For that reason, as well as the lack of prospects or young wingers pushing for his job, Killorn will more than likely continue to average around 18:07 per game. Based on production. with just four goals and nine assists in 25 games, he might not be worthy of it, but the Ducks will need to justify this contract and give him every chance for success in the first two years.

Matt Dumba – D – Arizona

I think Dumba wouldn't be averaging 20:04 per night on more than five or six teams in the NHL. Unfortunately for the Coyotes, they have very little choice in the short-term, or from their prospects pool longer term. This is an area in which Arizona might need to go the free agency or trade route. There is a good chance that Dumba will be traded to a contender nearer the deadline if the Coyotes drop out of the race as expected.

Nick Schmaltz – W – Arizona

Schmaltz has averaged 20:01 per game so far and has 23 points in 35 games, with 11 of those points coming on the power play. While his even-strength production has dried up a little in 2023-2024, he has been on the good side of Corsi (51.2) and expected goals (52.7), so his overall play has been fine. I would just hope to have more production than 12 ES points in 35 games from a first-line winger getting over 20 minutes per game. Fortunately for Schmaltz, Jason Zucker is probably the only short-term solution that could take minutes away from him.

Alex Kerfoot – C – Arizona

Kerfoot had never averaged more than 15:13 per game, which he did in 2021-2022 while with Toronto. So far, he has averaged 17:29 per game. Since Barrett Hayton has been hurt, Kerfoot has played over 20 minutes in eight of his past 13 games. Hayton isn't expected to be back in the lineup until February, and rookie Logan Cooley isn't quite ready for a top role, so expect Kerfoot to continue along until Hayton or Cooley replace him.

Nick Foligno – W – Chicago

I don't think many people had Nick Foligno on their cards to play with Connor Bedard this season and have him average 17:54 per game. Foligno has 17 points in 35 games (0.49), which is his highest production since he had 51 points in 79 games (0.65) while with Columbus in 2016-2017. Foligno is an impending UFA and could be dealt before the trade deadline. Currently, he seems to be a good fit with Bedard and Phillip Kurashev on the first line.

Ryan Suter – D – Dallas

Suter has been paired with Miro Heiskanen 78.1 percent of the time at even strength this year, while averaging 20:00 per game. The pairing has been outscored 26 to 17 at ES and outshot 250 to 239, but does have a CF% of 52.5. When Thomas Harley has been paired with Heiskanen, they have outscored the opponent nine to five, outshot them 61 to 41 and have a CF% of 64.2. It seems inevitable that Suter be replaced by Harley sooner than later.

Kyle Burroughs – D – San Jose

Much like Matt Dumba above, Burroughs wouldn't be averaging 19:27 per night on many teams in the NHL. There was a five or six-game stretch at the beginning of the year when he was quarterbacking the first unit of the power play for the Sharks. Burroughs is doing as well as he can in the situation he is in, but in reality, he is a fifth or sixth NHL defenseman at best. Calen Addison, Henry Thrun, Shakir Mukhamadullin and perhaps Ty Emberson are candidates for more ice time as the season progresses or into next year.

Fabbian Zetterlund – W – San Jose

Zetterlund has played 58 games for San Jose and has 10 goals and eight assists, averaging 18:01 per game this season. I think the Sharks will see what they have in the 24-year-old Zetterlund for the rest of the year and go from there, but they don't have many young wingers in their prospect pool other than Daniil Gushchin, who could be an option at some point this year, or Filip Bystedt, Will Smith or Thomas Bordeleau going forward. The return of Logan Couture could also move Zetterlund down the lineup.

Alex Wennberg – C – Seattle

Wennberg has interchanged with Matty Beniers and Yanni Gourde on the top three lines at center. He has averaged 18:40 per game and even though he is on the second unit of the power play and top unit of the penalty kill, he has slid into the top two lines more than the other two. The issue is that the Kraken are 28th in the NHL in goals at 2.65/g. Beniers has five goals and 18 points, Wennberg has five goals and 15 points and Gourde has four goals and 13 points. The strength of the Kraken in 2022-2023 was that they were 4th in the league at 3.52/g and had their offense well spread out over the top two lines. With Shane Wright on the cusp in the next year or two and Wennberg an impending UFA, he could be on another team before the trade deadline.

Nick Leddy – D – St. Louis

Leddy has averaged over 20 minutes per game since 2014-2015 and has averaged 21:59 so far this year. He used to have an offensive component to his game as he was capable of 10 goals and 40 points for a six or seven-year stretch when he was with the NY Islanders. His offense is pretty much down to 20-25 points, and he has been thrust into a shutdown role with Colton Parayko in 2023-2024. Leddy is signed until the end of 2026 at $4 million AAV and unless the Blues sign or trade for an upgrade it doesn't look like they have an internal replacement for him in the short-term.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.