Ramblings: Winter Classic; Noesen’s New Line; Top Performers of 2023 Including Kempe, Mittelstadt, Foegele, Dunn, and More – January 2

Michael Clifford

2024-01-02

The Professional Women's Hockey League launched their inaugural season yesterday. Through all the ups and downs of the professional women's hockey leagues over the last five-ish years, all the top players now have one league to play in. I will not profess to know the details of the behind-the-scenes machinations to get this done, so all I will say is that this has a real chance of being a big success in their respective locales (just look at how women's soccer and basketball has grown over the last decade). For anyone with a team in their area, get out and support them if you're able. Nothing but the best of success to all those involved as they get this league off the ground.

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There was no TJ Oshie yet again at Washington practice on Monday (the team said he's day-to-day so nothing serious, it seems). Not that Oshie's done much in the fantasy game this season, but Max Pacioretty's return does seem imminent and that would be one less obstacle to top power play minutes. How they plan to fit in Pacioretty with Alex Ovechkin should be fun to see, but it may not be long until Patches is a top PP regular.

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Interesting line combinations at Carolina's practice on Monday with Jesper Fast out of the lineup:

Stefan Noesen has been one of the most productive Carolina forwards this season on a per-minute basis, and he hits a lot for his ice time levels. The Jesperi Kotkaniemi line has been the third line by ice time lately, so maybe not a big jump incoming for Noesen, but with the Rangers, Capitals, and Blues on the schedule this week, it's not a bad time for him to get new line mates.

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In homage to Seattle's Pike Place Market, the Kraken made some great fashion choices entering the Winter Classic yesterday:

This is the type of thing I wish we saw more of in the NHL. It's a small gesture but it just continues to tie the team into the local market (pun not intended but welcomed).

Seattle shut out Vegas 3-0 in the Winter Classic thanks to a 35-save shutout from Joey Daccord. That is his second shutout of the season and he might have a hold on the starting role for a while now.

Eeli Tolvanen, in the one-year anniversary since his Kraken debut following his waiver claim, had a goal and an assist in the win.

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A note from Columbus:

Zach Werenski out, it's fair to wonder if they're prepping Jiricek to take over from Ivan Provorov. We shall see.

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The last calendar year in the NHL has seen a lot of intriguing fantasy performances. One reason why I like looking at a calendar year is because it includes two halves of two seasons (or thereabouts) and helps catch players who started ascending at the end of the 2022-23 season and kept up something close to that level to start the 2023-24 season. With just the Winter Classic game on the docket for New Year's Day, let's look at some notable fantasy performances from calendar 2023, outside of the elite players, with data from Natural Stat Trick.

Adrian Kempe

Specifying which single player is the most underrated in the league is often an exercise personal bias, but one of the names that should be in the conversation is Kempe. Last year saw him tied with Brayden Point for fifth in goals scored per minute at all strengths, just edging out Nathan MacKinnon. Putting Los Angeles's top winger in the same breath as players like that highlights just how productive he's been. Of course, as a winger on a team that is deep up front means not a lot of ice time, so he scored 0.11 fewer goals per game than MacKinnon despite a higher per-minute rate, and that matters for fantasy results. Regardless, Kempe doesn't turn 28 years old until September so he may have another couple years like he's had lately: a high-end multi-cat fantasy performer when considering his very good shot and hit rates.

Filip Forsberg

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The start Forsberg has had to the 2023-24 season has brought him more to the forefront than Kempe, but when looking through Kempe's stats I noticed that he, Brady Tkachuk, John Tavares (!) and Forsberg were the only players in calendar 2023 (min. 750 minutes played) to average 1.35 goals, 1.35 assists, 10.0 shots, and 4.0 hits per 60 minutes. For a player skating 19 minutes a night over 82 games, those numbers would work out to roughly 35 goals, 35 assists, 260 shots, and 105 hits per season. We will see if Forsberg can keep this rolling for the rest of this season, but it's been cool to see him really ascend to his full potential over the last few years.

Casey Mittelstadt

Leading the league in primary assists per 60 minutes in calendar 2023 was one of the most notable breakout players in Mittelstadt. I have often mentioned I wasn't sure he'd still be in the league by this point of his career and not only is he still here, but he's developed into an elite playmaker. He has been getting top power play minutes of late for Buffalo, which is a big piece of the fantasy puzzle, but he still isn't shooting or hitting much. He will have much more value in points-only formats than multi-cat leagues, but he leads Buffalo's forwards in ice time over the last two months, so he may be turning into the team's top centre, and that's very notable.

Warren Foegele

Perhaps it's appropriate he capped off his 2023 calendar year with a five-point game, but Foegele is a player that some fantasy players have undoubtedly taken note of over the last few months. He is 1 of 41 forwards in the sample to average at least 10 shots per 60 minutes at all strengths, and his goals/assists/hits per 60 minutes ranks similarly to a great multi-cat fantasy performer:

Of course, Foegele's problem is that he typically doesn't get a lot of ice time (only recently starting to earn around 15 minutes a night) and will be kept off Edmonton's top power play unit unless there are a couple injuries. It makes it hard to rely on him in non-deep multi-cat formats, and his per-game hit rate has declined from last season. All the same, Foegele has found another gear and I'm sure there are some happy fantasy managers in those deep formats.

Wyatt Johnston

One thing I like to do is look at differences between overall per-minute production and power play production. It can help find players who've been good point producers, but not necessarily on the power play, so that if the PPPs ever start to flow there could be a big jump in fantasy value. Over the last 4-5 years, guys like Jesper Bratt and Frank Vatrano come to mind. One name that stood out on my list of good per-60 point producers that aren't getting much in the way of PP production was Johnston – he was 80th percentile for lowest gap between overall per-minute production and PP production.

Dallas is loaded up front right now, but roster turnover is coming. Joe Pavelski is in the last year of his contract and Jamie Benn has one year left. They constitute half the forwards on Dallas's top PP unit, and Benn's game may finally be falling off for good anyway. It might not be long until Johnston is skating with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz on the man advantage, and his production will take off if/when that happens.  

Vince Dunn

The top four blue liners by points per minute in calendar 2023 make sense: Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, and Evan Bouchard. Fifth on that list, though, is Dunn, and he's second among all blue liners by total points (75) in that span. Being able to stay healthy has been a big reason for the raw totals over players like Makar and Hamilton, but being able to stay healthy is also a big part of the fantasy game.

Despite Seattle struggling to score in 2023-24, Dunn has been very productive. Like Mittelstadt earlier, a lack of shots/hits/blocks make him much less valuable in multi-cat formats, but the upside he showed glimpses of in St. Louis has really shone in Seattle. If that team's scoring can rebound in any meaningful way, Dunn could be great down the stretch.

Sean Durzi

There were 12 regular defensemen to be in the first standard deviation above average of per-minute production (basically the rate of a number-1 blue liner) while also reaching marks of 5.0 shots and 3.0 blocks per 60 minutes. Most names are the high-end multi-cat producers we think of like Dahlin, Roman Josi, Noah Dobson, and Josh Morrissey. However, Durzi's name snuck on there, and I think that's important to note given his contract status.  

According to CapFriendly, Arizona's entire blue line is either RFA or UFA after this season, with Durzi in the former category. Cap space is not an issue moving forward, though just general spending might be. Either way, he's one more year from being an unrestricted free agent, so he might get a hefty contract this offseason. With Arizona's scoring depth really coming around, the last step for Durzi to really ascend in fantasy is even more ice than the 22-23 minutes he's been getting this season. A complete lack of hits will hurt his multi-cat value a bit, but everything else is passable and I'm wondering if he doesn't have a Dunn-like breakout coming in the next year or two.

Connor Ingram

Calendar 2023 saw 34 goalies play at least 2000 minutes. The top two by save percentage in that goalie sample were the Boston tandem of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark. Tied for third place? A picture tells the story better than I ever could:

Evolving Hockey's Goals Saved Above Expected/60 metric has Ingram between Juuse Saros and Igor Shesterkin since the start of the 2022-23 season, a span of 47 starts for Arizona's goalie. Not a huge sample yet, but if he can keep playing like this for the rest of the season, we're going to have to have A Conversation about how good he really is.

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