Lining Up: Arizona’s Goaltenders; Mangiapane’s Decline; Mittelstadt’s Potential Surge

Peter Ryell

2024-01-02

Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up and a Happy New Year to you and yours! This week and over the next couple of weeks, we will review the most noteworthy line combinations from each team over the last calendar year and see if there is any information we can use moving forward.

Let's dive in.

Anaheim

Despite examining line combinations over the last calendar year, the best combination from Anaheim has been the trio of Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano and Mason McTavish. They have more than double the number of goals as the next best line combination and have been locked in together this season, playing nearly 300 minutes of time on ice at even strength. As a result, McTavish and Vatrano in particular are having career seasons. Vatrano has nearly three and a half shots and two hits per game on top of a 59-point pace. He is also seeing career highs in overall time on ice and power play time on ice. After a scorching start to the season, he has slowed down significantly in the second quarter but for leagues that count peripheral categories, he has been an excellent own this season and should continue to hold value moving forward as this line combination seems to be working well for Anaheim.

Arizona

Perhaps one of the more significant changes in deployment from the last calendar year to this season in Arizona has been the rise of Connor Ingram. Ingram began last season as the backup to Karel Vejmelka, playing 27 games to his 50 over the 2022-2023 season. However, when viewing their numbers from just January 1st to the end of the season, the gap closed with Ingram playing 17 games and Vejmelka playing 24. In other words, Ingram played nearly double the number of games in the second half of last season as he did in the first. He also had much better numbers, 4 W, 2.90 GAA, 0.922 SV% and 64.7 QS% compared to Vejmelka with 7 W, 3.68 GAA, 0.892 SV% and a 41.7 QS%.

This season started with both goalies splitting games, through the first quarter Vejmelka started 11 games while Ingram started 12. Since then, Ingram has gained a stranglehold on the position and played double the number of games as Vejmelka with similar differences in numbers to last season. It has been an interesting transition and if you have been lucky enough to grab Ingram from waivers or even draft him, you should be counting your blessings.

Boston

There was a lot of discussion over how Boston would transition from the retirement of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Last season, David Pastrnak primarily played with either David Krejci and Pavel Zacha or Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Meanwhile Marchand played with Bergeron for around two thirds of his time at even strength. While many prognostications had Zacha assuming the heavy usage alongside the remaining superstars, it has lately been Charlie Coyle who is playing with Marchand and this has led Coyle to a career 61-point pace so far, in addition to his current hot streak of five points in his last three games. Zacha meanwhile is on a near identical point pace to last season but is seeing almost two and half minutes more per night and has double his usage on the power play. Going into the New Year, it will be interesting to see if Coyle can further supplant Zacha perhaps on the top unit as he has recently been the better performer.

Buffalo

The biggest change from the calendar year to this season has been Casey Mittelstadt joining the top power play unit in Buffalo. After seeing only a 39% share of the power play time, he is so far up to 56% through his first 38 games. His PPIPP is low at 27.3% but over his career he has averaged a 57.7% participation rate and so we should expect that number to increase, meaning more power play points are coming so long as he can maintain his role there. In spite of the low power play participation rate, Mittelstadt is still having a career season with a 67-point pace (not including his 68-point pace from his first six games as a rookie). Now that he has the role with the man advantage, if he can just start cashing in closer to his career rate, Mittelstadt will become even more valuable.

Carolina

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After seeing plenty of time in the calendar year with Jack Drury and a combination of other forwards, Stefan Noesen was briefly promoted to a line with Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho. The early results were great for him as he notched 11 points in 16 games during the second quarter this season which has brought him up to a 49-point pace. Not bad for a spell on the top line. Moving forward into this year it will be interesting to see whether or not he can get back there and have more significant time with Aho, it would certainly turn Noesen into a solid depth option in deep leagues.

Columbus

Even though Johnny Gaudreau has finally been adding to the scoresheet lately with 10 points in his last eight games, after a full calendar year of being in Columbus it is fair to wonder whether anyone in the lineup has benefitted from playing alongside Gaudreau. The player who has lined up with Gaudreau the most both this season and last is Boone Jenner. In spite of his injury woes, Jenner is still his best and most common linemate in both years. Even with that role however, Jenner has not paced for a point total higher than the year prior to Gaudreau arriving in Columbus. It is fair to ask whether or not Gaudreau is actually hurting Jenner based on how well he performed in the 2021-2022 season. Regardless, Jenner is owned in a little more than half of Yahoo leagues and when he returns, should slot right back in beside Gaudreau. If this current streak is any indication that Gaudreau might be returning to the 76-point pace he had last season, it may be worth stashing Jenner in the hopes that he can increase his production.

Calgary

After being a part of Calgary's best line over the last calendar year with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, Andrew Mangiapane has played mostly with Elias Lindholm but has been a frustrating own so far this season. On pace for 47 points, his minimal power play usage in the first quarter of 1:41 has fallen in the second quarter so far with less than a minute, specifically in the seven games since December 14th he has seen a total of five seconds. Since that time the top power play unit seems to consist of Nazem Kadri, Elias Lindholm, Yegor Sharangovich and Connor Zary. Whatever is going on in Calgary, someone needs to give Mangiapane some power play time, his PPIPP of 25% is a far cry from two seasons ago and should likely be higher if he can ever get back to one of the units.

Chicago

Given that last season saw the remaining fantasy relevant players leave Chicago and this season brought about the age of Connor Bedard, certainly everyone's biggest question should be who has been playing with Bedard the most so far this season? The answer if owners are not aware already seems to be Nick Foligno and Philipp Kurashev. While Foligno is seeing five and a half minutes more ice time this season than last, including a boost in power play usage, he is only on pace for three more points than what he finished with in Boston. For what it's worth, the bump in ice time means he has nearly two shots and two hits per game which is decent from a forward when counting those categories although owners might have expected more with a spot alongside Bedard.

Kurashev meanwhile has spent even more time with Bedard, nearly three-quarters at even strength and has been with him on the power play. So far for Kurashev, he is on a 62-point pace which is very promising considering Bedard is on a 75-point pace. If he can hold onto this role for the season and into next season he will be a sneaky good option moving forward, especially considering he is only 3% rostered in Yahoo leagues at the moment.

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Starting Goalies

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  Players Team
OLEN ZELLWEGER ANA
JASON ROBERTSON DAL
JAKE WALMAN S.J
UVIS BALINSKIS FLA
MARTIN NECAS CAR

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  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
JACOB FOWLER MTL
CONNOR INGRAM UTA
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
CALVIN PICKARD EDM

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ANA Players
23.5 TREVOR ZEGRAS ALEX KILLORN LEO CARLSSON
23.1 FRANK VATRANO TROY TERRY RYAN STROME
18.4 ISAC LUNDESTROM BRETT LEASON CUTTER GAUTHIER

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