Ramblings: Eichel IR; Kane Injured; Power-Play Rust; Overrated and Underrated Goalies (Jan 15)

Brennan Des

2024-01-15

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With January 15th being a holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day) in the States, we'll be treated to a bunch of afternoon hockey on Monday. Get your lineups set on time! The earliest puck-drop is set to take place at 12pm EST, between San Jose and Buffalo. It's worth noting that a snowstorm affected the Sharks' travel plan, and they didn't get into Buffalo until around 8 PM. Don't be surprised to see a sluggish start from San Jose tomorrow given the circumstances.

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On Sunday, we learned that Vegas placed Jack Eichel on Injured Reserve. Such a transaction requires a player to miss a week of action. That clock was already ticking in Eichel's case, as he missed Saturday's game against the Flames with this same injury. He won't be available for Monday's game against Nashville or Thursday's game against the Rangers, but he'll be eligible to play on Saturday against Pittsburgh. His status for that game will depend on whether his lower-body injury has healed by then. The Golden Knights have struggled immensely as of late and will be in tough without their leading scorer. Vegas has won just three of its last 10 games, averaging a measly two goals per contest. Only the San Jose Sharks (1.91 goals/game) have scored fewer goals per game in that span.

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During Sunday's practice, Bryan Rust skated on Pittsburgh's top power-play while Rickard Rakell took reps on the second unit. This would be a discouraging development for Rakell, who's been a great fantasy asset since returning from injury. He returned on December 18th and has posted 10 points in 12 games since then, averaging 19 and a half minutes per contest. He's been a key piece of the Penguins' top power-play unit over the past two weeks, enjoying a 66% share of Pittsburgh's time with the man advantage. During this two-week span, he has three power-play points in eight games. Despite his strong individual production, Pittsburgh's power-play has converted on just 15.6% of its chances during this stretch. It's unfair to pin the blame on Rakell here, but he's the easiest player to bump off the top group as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel and Erik Karlsson are too talented and well-compensated to be demoted at this point. Although he's still skating beside Crosby and Guentzel at even strength, falling off the top power-play unit limits Rakell's offensive ceiling.

Rust hasn't seen much power-play opportunity this year or last year, but from October 2019 to April 2022 he saw a 63% share of Pittsburgh's power-play time and racked up 49 PPPs over 171 games. For reference, during that span, Guentzel saw a 70% share of PP time and tallied just one more power-play point than Rust – despite playing the same number of games. Rust is familiar with this core and has enjoyed success with them in the past, so it'll be interesting to see if he can breathe life into a power play that has underwhelmed all year.

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Kaapo Kakko returned to the lineup in Sunday's 3-2 win over Washington. He'd missed the team's last 21 games due to a lower-body injury, which had kept him sidelined since November 27th. Kakko reclaimed a familiar role beside Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider on the Rangers' top line and saw 16 minutes of action.

T.J. Oshie scored Washington's only goal on Sunday, giving him four points (three goals) in his last five outings. He's finally showing signs of life after posting just two points in his first 19 appearances. The 37-year-old forward has been hindered by injuries so far this season. Despite his age, a top-six/top power-play role gives him the potential to be a useful fantasy asset when healthy – especially in leagues that track hits.

Max Pacioretty tallied an assist on Sunday, giving him three points in his last four appearances. We're starting to see Pacioretty take on a more prominent role after skating more sheltered minutes early on. In his first three games, he averaged 13 minutes of ice time. In his last three games, he's averaged 17 minutes. He's seen prominent power-play time in Washington's last two games, but that may be because Alex Ovechkin was absent for those contests. It'll be interesting to see if Pacioretty can stick with the top unit once Ovi returns. Keep in mind, the Capitals play a lot of games during most leagues' fantasy playoffs. If you can't work Oshie and Pacioretty into your lineup now, at least keep them on your radar for March and April.

Although he suffered the loss on Sunday, Charlie Lindgren put together another impressive performance, stopping 29 of the 31 shots he faced. He had the rare task of starting back-to-back nights as he just led the Capitals to a 3-2 victory over the Rangers on Saturday. I don't think the magnitude of Lindgren's accomplishments this season have been discussed enough. Among goalies that have made at least 10 appearances, he ranks second in save percentage, posting a .929 through 17 games. His 2.24 GAA places him fifth among the same group. In contrast, Washington's other goalie Darcy Kuemper owns a .891 save percentage and 3.27 GAA through 22 appearances. Given the margin by which he's outperformed Kuemper thus far, I imagine Lindgren should see more action in the second half. Goalies tend to take more time to develop than skaters, so it's not outlandish to suggest that Lindgren is breaking out at 30 years of age. A delayed breakout makes all the more sense when you consider he played just 28 NHL games between the 15-16 and 21-22 seasons. His largest workload came last year when he started 31 games for the Capitals. If all goes well, he should eclipse that this year. Concerns about (1) his lack of experience and (2) the quality of his team are valid, but considering he's available in ~60% of Yahoo/Fantrax leagues, you'd be hard-pressed to find better options just sitting on the waiver wire. 

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On the topic of underrated goalies, it's criminal that Samuel Ersson hasn't received more love this year, but maybe that's fitting given all the robberies he's committed. Although he got off to a rough start early on, allowing five goals in his first appearance and seven in his second, he hasn't surrendered more than three goals in a game since. In fact, since November 1st, he leads all netminders (min. 10 GP) with a 1.90 GAA. His .927 save percentage ranks third – behind only Connor Hellebuyck and the aforementioned Lindgren. Ersson's 11-4-2 record in that span is icing on the cake. Although Carter Hart started this season as the Flyers' undisputed number one, we're starting to see a time share develop in Philadelphia. Like Lindgren, Ersson is still available in most fantasy leagues.

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On Sunday, Mitch Marner became the fastest player to reach 600 points with the Leafs, doing so in 548 games. It's an impressive record, but it's almost certain to be short lived. Auston Matthews is 10 points shy of the 600-mark despite playing just 521 games. 

Ilya Samsonov made his first start in two weeks, surrendering three goals on 23 shots from the Red Wings. He'd been placed on waivers December 31st – sent to the AHL in hopes he could rediscover his game after an awful start to the campaign. It was more of a mental reset than anything as he didn't see any game action with the Marlies. Although Toronto entered the third with a 2-1 lead, they left the game with a 4-2 loss. Allowing two goals on six shots from Detroit in the third period – snatching defeat from the jaws of victory – probably won't help his confidence.

Although Martin Jones has solid numbers on the season, I'm not convinced he can thrive as Toronto's starter for the rest of the year. Looking at the 13 games he's played (ignoring his 9-minute relief appearance on December 7th), I'd classify six of them as 'bad' games (save percentage below .905, with a GAA above 3.00). That leaves him with seven good games. The thing is, four of those good games were against bottom-tier teams, as he beat Anaheim, Columbus, and San Jose (twice). That leaves him with three truly impressive games on the year – a shutout against Pittsburgh, a shutout against LA, and a strong performance against the Hurricanes in which he allowed two goals. Maybe I'm being unfair, but I'm not ready to trust a goalie on the basis of three impressive performances. That distrust is magnified because we've seen him post bad numbers over a large sample these past five seasons. Between the 2018-19 and 2022-23 campaigns, Jones posted an .895 save percentage through 220 appearances. There were 85 goalies who played at least 50 games during that span. Jones ranks 83rd in save percentage. Sure, Toronto is a better team than the others he's played for recently, but even here there are warning signs that he's benefitted from facing weaker opponents. I could end up looking like a grade-A doofus, but I personally think Joseph Woll returns from injury and scoops up the starting role down the stretch. Based on that belief, if you can trade Jones for a pretty penny right now, I think you'd be wise to do so.

Pontus Holmberg scored the opening goal for Toronto on Sunday. The 24-year-old forward has been skating on Toronto's top line lately, sharing the ice with Auston Matthews and William Nylander at even strength. It's a small sample but he's complemented them well so far. As I write this, he's rostered in 4% of Fantrax leagues and 0% of Yahoo Leagues. With the Leafs playing four games this week (Monday Jan 15th – Sunday Jan 21st), Holmberg could provide sneaky value as a streamer.

Patrick Kane left Sunday's game with a lower-body injury. Fortunately, early indications suggest this is unrelated to his offseason hip surgery. Kane's comeback from that surgery has been impressive. He has 16 points in 19 games since making his season debut in early December. Kane's absence was filled by committee on Sunday, but Daniel Sprong seemed to see the longest stretch in his place beside J.T. Compher and Alex DeBrincat. Sprong boasts a 53-point pace this season despite skating less than 13 minutes a night – in a predominantly bottom-six role. If Kane ends up missing time, Sprong could provide sneaky value in an expanded role.

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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11 WSH vs COL
Nov 21 - 19:11 CBJ vs T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11 OTT vs VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11 DET vs NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11 BOS vs UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11 N.J vs CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11 STL vs S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11 CHI vs FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11 CGY vs NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11 EDM vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
DECLAN CHISHOLM MIN
JAKE WALMAN S.J
KIEFER SHERWOOD VAN

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency STL Players
29.8 ROBERT THOMAS JORDAN KYROU PAVEL BUCHNEVICH
23.6 BRAYDEN SCHENN BRANDON SAAD JAKE NEIGHBOURS
16.6 MATHIEU JOSEPH DYLAN HOLLOWAY ZACK BOLDUC

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