Ramblings: Oilers Win 16th In A Row, Matthews Gets to 40, Boeser Gets to 30, Samsonov No Longer Struggling? (Jan 28)
Ian Gooding
2024-01-28
Hope you enjoyed this busy day/night of action. The next time at least 20 teams play will be (flips calendar) February 10, which is two weeks away.
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With Carter Hart's very indefinite leave of absence, Samuel Ersson is now the starter in Philly. He has earned it with some solid play during the first half, but he's had a rough go of it lately. Ersson now has four consecutive losses and three consecutive really bad starts. He was pulled after one period on Saturday after allowing four goals on 14 shots to the Bruins.
If Ersson isn't up to the task, the Flyers' playoff hopes won't be in great shape. Cal Petersen has been recalled to be Ersson's backup, and he finished the 6-2 loss for the Flyers. Petersen has struggled mightily during the past few seasons, and he hasn't shone in the AHL either this season (15 GP, 3.26 GAA, .890 SV%).
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Wyatt Johnston seems to be making the most of his opportunity on the Stars' top line with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. Johnston scored a goal on four shots in the Stars' 5-4 overtime win over Washington. Over his last seven games, Johnston has three multipoint games, giving him eight points over those last seven games. He's hovered around being 20-25% rostered in Yahoo for much of the season, and I'd considered dropping him at one point in my single-season league. Thankfully I've been patient, as he has plenty of upside if he stays on this line.
Even with Miro Heiskanen returning to the lineup two games ago, Thomas Harley hasn't slowed down. Harley has three consecutive multipoint games, including a pair of goals on Saturday. Harley also has nine shots and is a plus-5 in the two games since Heiskanen's return. Harley has also been paired with Heiskanen at even strength, which should boost his icetime. Harley was averaging just 17 minutes per game in the first quarter, but that number has been in the 21-22-minute range since.
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Jacob Trouba has been suspended two games for elbowing Vegas’ Pavel Dorofeyev during Friday’s game. Trouba had to sit out Saturday's game against Ottawa and will also miss the February 5 game against Colorado. Dorofeyev was out of the lineup for Saturday's game against Detroit.
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Corey Perry made his Oilers debut on Saturday. He was held without a point and took two shots while playing just under 13 minutes, mainly on a line with Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway and on the second power-play unit. The big guns were more noticeable than that for the Oilers, as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combined for seven points in the 4-1 win over Nashville.
Edmonton's win streak has now reached 16 games – one game below the NHL record. No matter where they finish in the Western Conference standings, the Oilers have to be considered among the teams that could advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Their recent run basically restores them as a popular preseason pick to win it all after their nightmarish start. The fact that Stuart Skinner is playing so well checks the box for their greatest perceived weakness, which is goaltending. A lot can change before the playoffs and even during the playoffs, but this is a team that has turned a new coach bump into a rocket to the moon.
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Shakir Mukhamadullin played in his first career NHL game, taking three shots while logging nearly 20 minutes of icetime and even leading the Sharks with 28 shifts. He was also on the ice for 41.7% of the Sharks' available power-play minutes. Mukhamadullin has demonstrated strong production in the AHL, scoring 26 points in 39 games this season. He has the potential to QB the Sharks' power play someday, but his upside should be considered very limited this season given the lack of scoring depth on the Sharks. Keeper leaguers could consider locking him up, as he is rostered in only 15% of Fantrax leagues.
Jack Quinn was injured during the third period of the Sharks/Sabres game. This is concerning because the injury is on the same leg that he injured his Achilles on, returning to action last month. Although it is not believed to be an Achilles injury, coach Don Granato said the injury is more than just day-to-day.
Dylan Cozens led the Sabres in their 5-2 win over San Jose. Cozens has heated up recently with seven points over his last four games. After a dip in production in the first half compared to last season, Cozens has the potential for a stronger second half. He might find much of that growth in the form of assists, as his secondary assist rate is only 15.8% this season compared to 43.2% last season.
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It appears to be safe to start Ilya Samsonov again. With three consecutive wins and quality starts, Samsonov seems to be over his case of the yips. Samsonov has given up only three goals over his past three games, including two on Saturday (one with just 12 seconds left after the Leafs were sitting on a 4-1 lead). The short-term demotion to the AHL seemed to help if nothing else to get him refocused because he didn't play any games. Rostering goalies can be a rollercoaster ride, so an effective strategy often seems to be to ride the hot hand but sit the cold goalie.
With Samsonov's recent play, the Leafs also seem a lot less likely to shop for a goalie at the deadline. However, if Samsonov goes into the tank again, let the second-guessing begin. Martin Jones had allowed at least three goals in each of his last five games. It will be very interesting to see how the Leafs split the goaltending once Joseph Woll is ready to return. Woll may begin practicing after the All-Star break, although a return doesn't seem imminent.
With a goal on Saturday, Auston Matthews is the first player to reach 40 goals this season. Matthews also has goals in three consecutive games and 10 points in his last six games.
Let's do some Ryan Reaves content. Reaves scored just his second goal (and point) of the season and first since November 24. That might not be fair to say, since Reaves missed over a month with a lower-body injury. Reaves wasn't being rostered in fantasy leagues for his scoring but because of the hits totals he could rack up. Good for at least 200 hits per season for close to a decade, Reaves may still reach 100 hits this season, but his ability to contribute anything is limited since his icetime is all the way down to 7 minutes and change per game. Moreover, Reaves was supposed to be a healthy scratch for this game before Calle Jarnkrok was injured in practice Friday, and he is in danger of being healthy scratched again.
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In the Lightning's 6-3 win over New Jersey, Brandon Hagel and Brayden Point each scored a pair of goals, while Victor Hedman registered three assists. Hagel is on the hot list right now with five points in his last three games and 13 points in his last 11 games. So is Point with seven points in his last four games and three consecutive multipoint games. With the three-point game, Hedman has joined Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Noah Dobson as the only defensemen scoring at over a point-per-game pace (50 PTS in 48 GP).
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Another game, another goal for Sam Reinhart. He now has goals in four consecutive games and 19 goals over his past 17 games. Reinhart now has 37 goals, trailing only Matthews. I wrote more about Reinhart yesterday.
I'm guessing Brandon Montour is a top-searched player on Frozen Tools because many are wondering when he'll start to put up points again. Montour registered an assist on Saturday, which was just his second point in his last six games. With just two goals and 11 points in 33 games, Montour is still well off last season's scoring pace. Montour is still taking 2.5 SOG/GP, so eventually a few will have to go in. The power-play time is still there as well. But the more I think about it, the more I think that the 73-point season last season might be an outlier. I'm saying that even though I was very impressed with Montour's overall performance in last season's playoffs.
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Sidney Crosby is still magical. He's now on a seven-game point streak with nine points over that span.
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With two goals on Saturday, Dylan Larkin now has goals in three consecutive games and 15 points over his last 11 games.
After being held without a point in his last seven games, Moritz Seider now has points in back-to-back games, including two assists. Seider broke a 19-game goal drought by hitting the twine on Thursday against Philadelphia.
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With a hat trick on Saturday, Brock Boeser has reached the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career – in just his 49th game of the season. His previous career high of 29 was set in his first full season (2017-18). At the time, it seemed like Boeser would reach 30 multiple times and soon. However, injuries and a reduced role at one point got in the way. No player seems to have improved stat-wise with the Canucks' sudden ascent to the top of the standings as much as Boeser. In case you thought his scoring has been unsustainable this season, he had been held without a goal in his previous six games.
On the heels of a hat trick on Wednesday, Pius Suter assisted on two of Boeser's goals. That gives him six points over his last three games. More importantly, he's been installed on the Boeser – J.T. Miller line and the Canucks' first-unit power play. Suter has also taken 11 shots over those three games. The Canucks would rather spread scoring around over two lines than stack Elias Pettersson with Boeser and Miller to form the "Lotto Line," so expect Suter to get an extended look here. He's worth a pickup when the Canucks return to action in over a week's time.
I was about to write about how Elvis Merzlikins looked impressive against the Canucks, perhaps changing the narrative on his late December/early January benching. But then the Canucks scored three times in the third period to erase a three-goal deficit and then scored again in overtime to win. Elvis now has two consecutive really bad starts while allowing at least three goals in each of the four games since returning from his brief exile. I don't think his hold on the starting job is safe, which could create even more drama in Columbus.
Kirill Marchenko leads the Blue Jackets in goals (15), even though he scored just his second goal in his last 15 games on Saturday. That's the kind of season it's been for the Blue Jackets.
Even though Adam Fantilli is cold (2 PTS in last 5 GP) and was held off the scoresheet on Saturday, his speed and drive to the net was certainly noticeable. At 19 years of age, Fantilli has a very bright future ahead. The rookie is just 22 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues, so I'd view him as a potential Sunday/Tuesday streamer.
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On the Blackhawks' four-game road trip through western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, they have scored a grand total of two goals. Both goals were against Seattle, so they've been shut out in all of Vancouver, Edmonton, and then Calgary on Saturday night. Going back a bit further, they've been shut out in four of their last six games. We kind of figured this is what would happen with all the injuries, but the Chicago team that is being rolled out at the moment has absolutely no finishing touch. Stream any goalie against them, even if it's an unknown ECHL callup or EBUG.
That being said, Jacob Markstrom had to face 32 shots as the Flames edged the Blackhawks 1-0. Markstrom has had an effective bounce-back campaign. No goalie with as many games as Markstrom (29 GP) has as few really bad starts (2 RBS) as Markstrom.
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