Ramblings: Updates on Andersen and Fantilli; Rest of Season for Voronkov, Roy, Newhook, Perunovich, and Zellweger

Michael Clifford

2024-02-01

Carolina provided an update Frederik Andersen and they said he suffered pulmonary embolisms that occurred back in November. He has been taking medication to help with the issue and working with doctors to try and get him back on the ice without further problems. That he's back skating at all is a great sign, and let's hope there is no recurrence for him.

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Columbus announced that Adam Fantilli will be out eight weeks with a laceration to his calf sustained in Sunday's game against Seattle. That would put him on track to return at the end of March, so it doesn't end his season, but it will only give him a few weeks of game action.

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Vancouver did what they did last year and got a big trade deadline name off the board early, only this time it was acquiring instead of trading off:

This seems to be a pretty good haul on the Calgary side for a pending UFA in Elias Lindholm. There will a full breakdown of this trade on the site in the morning. Alex’s take on the trade can be read here.

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For the third time in four games, Ottawa went to overtime and for the second game in a row, they took the extra point. Shane Pinto's second goal since returning was the overtime winner, redirecting a pass from Thomas Chabot through Alex Lyon. Lyon ended up allowing three goals on just 25 shots while Joonas Korpisalo allowed two on 25 shots for the win.

Pinto finished the game with one goal, one assist, four shots, a block, and a hit in a fantastic multi-cat night. Chabot had that assist, a shot, and three blocks while Brady Tkachuk scored once on four shots, adding a couple penalty minutes for good measure.

Dylan Larkin and Daniel Sprong both scored for Detroit. That goal pushed Larkin's point streak to 12 games, a span that includes 10 goals and 15 points. Moritz Seider had three shots, a block, and three hits in a good multi-cat effort.

Jake Sanderson left the game late in the first period and did not return. The team is calling it a lower-body injury, and updates may be scarce during the All-Star break.

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Alex Turcotte scored his first career NHL goal and added an assist on Trevor Lewis's third period goal to help lift Los Angeles to a 4-2 win. It was a victory the Kings desperately needed heading into the All-Star break as their slide was approaching two months and had taken them from among the league's best records to a wild card spot. Turcotte added a hit in his 10 minutes of ice time on the fourth line.

Carl Grundstrom and Kevin Fiala added the other goals. David Rittich stopped 39 of 41 shots faced for his fifth win in nine starts.

Filip Forsberg and Philip Tomasino had tallies for Nashville in their loss. Forsberg had six shots and two hits along the way and is now over 200 shots (203) for the season and has 84 hits total. It has been a marvelous multi-cat season for him.

Roman Josi had an assist, three shots, and four blocks in a solid multi-cat night.

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Anaheim went into the break on a high note as they took a 3-2 overtime win from San Jose. Frank Vatrano scored the OT winner, landing four total shots and a pair of hits. That gives him 22 goals in 50 games this season, or as many as he had in 81 games last year. Add his three-plus shots and 1.5 hits per game and he's had a great multi-cat season in Anaheim.

Troy Terry had a goal and an assist along the way, pushing his point streak to six games (four goals, six assists). That makes 10 goals and 12 assists for Terry over his last 20 games. He had a very slow start to his season but has come alive since December started.

Shakir Mukhamadullin registered his first career point, assisting on Anthony Duclair's first-period power play goal. Mukhamadullin finished the game with two shots, six blocks, two PIMs, and a pair of hits in nearly 22 minutes of ice time.

John Gibson stopped 26 of 28 shots for his 10th win of the season. He goes into the break with a .912 save percentage over his last five starts, posting two wins in that time.

Alex Barabanov left the game in the second period and did not return. Coach David Quinn didn't think the injury would be a serious one, though.

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On Tuesday, a few offseason breakout predictions that have not come to fruition were discussed. Today, let's look at some potential breakouts that are in the cards over the next 10 weeks. As always, data from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools, unless otherwise indicated.

For more breakout predictions, as well as second-half projections, advanced stats, prospects in the offing, and a whole lot more, be sure to grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Hockey Midseason Fantasy Guide!

Two things we are looking for when trying to identify a potential breakout player:

  1. The opportunity for meaningful offensive minutes, and preferably both top-6 and top power play minutes.
  2. Signs of life in a lesser role whether through shot rates, playmaking numbers, unluckiness, or likely some combinations of the three.

These won't necessarily be players succeeding for the first time but could include names that have had success in prior seasons but have had an unsuccessful first half.

Dmitri Voronkov

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Dating back to December 11th, or Columbus's last 20 games, Voronkov has a 5-on-5 individual expected goals/60 rate of 1.36. That mark is top-5 among all forwards with at least 200 minutes in that span, just ahead of names like Zach Hyman and Trevor Moore. His 82-game pace is for just over 20 goals, and his 42 hits and 35 penalty minutes in 44 games bring some banger value as well. This is a 23-year-old who had more goals (32) than assists (30) over his most recent three seasons in the KHL, so that he has more assists (13) than goals (12) to this point of his rookie season is a good sign.

Relying on any Columbus skater for consistent production is kind of a fool's errand; we have to admit that much. The power play and even strength line combinations change frequently, and Voronkov has yet to reach 18 minutes in a single game this season. He is not at the top of their pecking order, but he's shown good chemistry with both Kirill Marchenko and Kent Johnson, and he can offer enough peripherals in 14-15 minutes of ice time for relevance in banger leagues. If Voronkov's 5-on-5 shooting percentage climbs – just 8.2% in this span – the goals will follow. If he can ever start earing 17 minutes a night regularly? That's when the juice becomes worth the squeeze.

Nicolas Roy

Vegas activated William Karlsson from the long-term injured reserve with the team heading into the All-Star break. It appears Jack Eichel should return by the end of February at the latest, so the team should have its full complement of centres heading down the stretch of the regular season.

For the fantasy managers that grabbed Roy when he was moved to the second line with Jonathan Marchessault, kudos to you. The question is whether he can keep the streak going as the team gets healthy. In order to do that, he needs to keep that second-line role with Marchessault, which will be tough to do when the team is healthy. On his side is the fact that he and Marchessault, as the visuals from HockeyViz show us, have been very good offensively (red on offence is good, blue on defence is good):

The other part of it is that the Chandler Stephenson/Mark Stone duo, which was struggling earlier in the season, is still not performing as the team would hope. The goals against have gotten better of late, but their last 10 games have seen the duo receive .951 goaltending at 5-on-5. If that's what it takes to keep the goals against down, it might be time for the team to find a new duo. Roy's fantasy value is contingent entirely on top-6 minutes, and that is far from guaranteed, or even likely, but we'll know soon enough when they assemble their lineup with Karlsson for their first game back.

Alex Newhook

On the topic of injury returns, Newhook was injured November 30th and was expected to miss 10-12 weeks with a high-ankle sprain. By the time the Canadiens play their second post-All-Star game, it will have been 10 weeks for Newhook. When, exactly, he returns is uncertain, but after the NHL's break, it should be sooner rather than later.

Kirby Dach is out for the season for Montreal, and it seems exceedingly likely that Sean Monahan will be traded by the March 8th trade deadline. Assuming Newhook returns mid-February, it'll give him a couple of weeks to get up to speed after so much time off. With Dach out, and Monahan likely to be on the move, Newhook could very well be Montreal's second-line centre for their final 20 games. There would also be an open spot on the top power play unit, and Newhook would be at the top of the list for those minutes.

Tracking data from AllThreeZones has Newhook around the league average for regular forwards this season by rate of assists on teammate scoring chances at 5-on-5. It might sound like faint praise, but the only Canadiens players higher (with at least 100 tracked minutes) are the members of the old top line plus Monahan. His shot rate had started to tick up in the 10 games before the injury – about a 35% increase per 60 at 5-on-5 compared to the first month of the season – so there were good signs here. It will likely take a few weeks for him to secure the roles necessary for fantasy relevance but keep an eye on the waiver wire when (if?) he does.

Scott Perunovich

Being in and out of the lineup to start the season, Perunovich had just two points (both assists) in 17 games heading into the Christmas break. In his 14 games since that break, he has 10 points (again, all assists). Half of those assists have come on the power play as he's finally received the top power play role fantasy hockey fanatics have been clamouring for dating back years. Injuries have certainly not helped Perunovich's cases in recent seasons, and we are awaiting results on a recent MRI for a lower-body injury. That the team hasn't ruled him out for a few weeks is good news for now, but this situation is uncertain until we get updates after the All-Star break.

Aside from Perunovich's current injury status, it is understandable to be reticent about banking on the St. Louis power play having success, given their lack of it going back to last season. Things have changed dramatically with Jake Neighbours on the top unit, though, as they've gone from 4.3 goals/60 without him to 12.2 goals/60 with him. Shooting nearly 27% is the reason why, but even 15% shooting would mean a 60% increase in goals/60 when compared to the pre-Neighbours era.

This is about what fantasy managers are looking for. Even with a recent ice time rise that includes those top PP minutes and an injured Justin Faulk, Perunovich was still averaging just 15 minutes a night. With a lack of peripherals, it's (mostly) about power play production, but the defender should have that opportunity when (if?) he returns, and that's worthwhile as a depth spot on most fantasy rosters.

Olen Zellweger

This is an easy one, and for a prospect that has a lot of hype, it's likely Zellweger was nabbed off the waiver wire in most non-shallow fantasy leagues. Regardless, it provides an opportunity to talk about his upside.

Expectations are high for the 20-year-old blue liner. He was second in points by defencemen (first by points per game) in his final WHL season and led the WHL in points (and points per game) the year before. Pat Quinn at Dobber Prospects wrote about him as a top defence prospect to own in long-term keeper leagues and I agree with that. The model at Hockey Prospecting views him as a player that is very, very likely to be a star in the league, too:

In his three NHL games (before Wednesday night), Zellweger has three shots, three hits, five blocks, and a power play assist. He ran what should be the team's top PP unit in all three contests, though there have been times when the other power play has gotten more ice time. C'est la vie.

Every fantasy manager has 'their' guys. They are players that person is higher on than most, even if that player is an exceptional talent anyway. Zellweger is one of those players for me. Whenever I've had a chance to watch him, the things he does with the puck are often impressive, if not jaw-dropping. His agility helps with his escapability so even if he's not a tremendous straight-line skater (which is a strength anyway), the shiftiness helps him make high-end plays in both zones. There will be mistakes, of course, and those will take time to correct, but the upside is sky-high with Zellweger. Consistent fantasy production will almost certainly be lacking if he's skating 15 minutes a game, but this is a guy that should be on fantasy rosters in any league that isn't shallow due to the power play role alone. It is time to get excited.

For some quick hits, here are a few players I'm keeping an eye on.

Anthony Cirelli – Skating on the second line with Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul recently, Cirelli went into the break with eight points in six games, averaging nearly 19 minutes a night. Hagel and Cirelli have been dominant together without Steven Stamkos on their line (3.0 goals/60, 62.6% expected goal share in 257 minutes) and with Tampa Bay fighting for a playoff spot, they are leaning more on Cirelli and his line mates. 

Adam Boqvist – A recent injury was unfortunate, but Boqvist had been averaging 22 minutes a night in the six games since getting back to the lineup. This is a player who often demonstrated high-end offensive skill but was so poor defensively that coaches hesitated to use him. His defense still isn't strong, but opportunity matters. Just check to see where, and how often, he's being used when Columbus returns from their break.

Logan Cooley – Being on pace for a 43-point season is nothing to sneeze at as a rookie, especially on a team that has struggled to score at 5-on-5 for large swaths of the season outside of Michael Carcone's absurd stretch. He had points in four straight games heading into the break and had shown good chemistry with Dylan Guenther in a depth role: 60.4% expected goal share, and 54.1% shot attempt share, at 5-on-5 in 102 minutes together.

One Comment

  1. dippiscott 2024-02-02 at 09:32

    Zellweger was sent down to the AHL to get some ice time during the all-star break, but is expected to be back up with the Ducks by next weekend…

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