Ramblings: Monahan to Winnipeg, Coaching Change in LA, McDavid Wins Skills, Lindholm/Kuzmenko Trade (Feb 3)
Ian Gooding
2024-02-03
Hope you are enjoying your break from your fantasy team(s). But maybe you're not, and that's why you're here.
It wasn't exactly a light news day, or week for that matter, so that's what the focus will be on today.
The Jets followed Western Conference rival Vancouver in adding to their scoring, acquiring Sean Monahan from the Canadiens for a 2024 first-round pick and conditional 2027 third-round pick. Monahan is obviously not the same player he was earlier in his career with Calgary, but he is still a very useful middle-6 piece for a Winnipeg squad gearing up for a playoff run. Mike wrote the Fantasy Take for you.
Expanding on Mike's observation that Monahan is on pace for 26 power-play points, Monahan's 16 PPP places him in the top 50 in the league in that category. The only player with as few total points as Monahan (35 PTS) within that top 50 is now-former teammate Mike Matheson, who has registered 19 of his 34 points with the man advantage. Those are the kinds of players to watch if they lose their PP1 spot, as any demotion could result in a major hit to their overall scoring.
One key question in Winnipeg seems to be whether Monahan will bump Alex Iafallo out of the top power play. You never know what coaches will decide, but I would bet on that happening. As Mike explained, Iafallo is being used in the bumper spot like Monahan was in Montreal, so it's not a positional issue similar to why Nikolaj Ehlers hasn't been used on the top power play for much of his career (I've been told by a source close to the team that Ehlers wants to play in the same spot as Mark Scheifele). Compared to Monahan, Iafallo has just 5 PPP all season, and he last registered a power-play point on December 16. In fact, Iafallo snapped a 10-game point drought in his last game, so I wouldn't be overly bullish on him for fantasy purposes anyway.
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The slumping LA Kings made a coaching change, replacing Todd McLellan with assistant coach Jim Hiller. In-season coaching changes can spark a team in the short-term – just ask Edmonton.
Perhaps McLellan was at least partially done in by riding Cam Talbot too often early in the season to the point where his numbers took a steep decline (0-7-3, 3.86 GAA, .881 SV% since the Christmas break). David Rittich has even started the last two games for the Kings, winning the last one while making 39 saves in a 4-2 win. It will be interesting to see whether Hiller decides to continue with the "less cold" hand in Rittich or if he's confident that the rest will do Talbot some good. We won't find out for a while, as Hiller will have to wait another week to make his Kings head coaching debut, which is next Saturday against the red-hot Oilers.
Whenever these coaching changes happen, attention should turn to struggling players. That means one player to watch will be Pierre-Luc Dubois, who qualifies as a major bust in his first season with the Kings. Following back-to-back 60-point seasons, Dubois is on pace to finish with 35 points. Perhaps a new coach will bring new ideas in terms of the right place for Dubois in this lineup. At the moment, he's a third-line center with an $8.5 million cap hit, which is far from efficient for a team that has its sights set on the playoffs.
For more on the coaching change, Mike has the Fantasy Take.
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After 12 players battled it out to be the Skills event champion, Connor McDavid took home the title and the $1 million prize money. The competition didn't have the costumes and overall goofiness of previous seasons, and the idea of having an overall champion and not just one-off event winners seemed to work. I'd be willing to bring it back in this simplified format, although I'm sure folks would get bored of it within a few years and long for the pizzazz of previous seasons. I think the skills format worked this season because it focused on exactly that – the skills of the NHL’s top players.
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The NHL has announced a four-nation tournament (Canada, United States, Sweden, Finland) for 2025 instead of the All-Star Game. This provides a welcome break from watching the season come to a pause for a game that many hockey fans tune out. However, the new tournament won't allow superstars from non-participating countries to compete in any way. Team World, anyone? What will the Russia situation be a year from now?
The NHL has also announced a return of NHL players to the 2026 and 2030 Winter Olympics. This should finally fill the void of the lack of best-on-best international tournaments these last several years. Think about this: In 2026, McDavid will be 29 and Sidney Crosby will be 38. True international play can't come soon enough.
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Elias Lindholm hasn't been able to make the most of his contract year, as he has seen his points per game decline for the second consecutive season. Going from Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau (the Calgary version) to Andrew Mangiapane and Yegor Sharangovich as his most frequent even-strength linemates will do that. Lindholm will have a chance to reverse course on that trend, as I would bet the over on him scoring at his current 54-point pace for the remainder of the season.
Here's one example of what the lines could look like for the Canucks, assuming the Canucks slot Lindholm into Kuzmenko's old spot. According to Canucks president Jim Rutherford, coach Rick Tocchet is expected to use Lindholm on a line with Elias Pettersson.
Something else to note is that Lindholm's advanced stats show a potential for a turnaround. Among forwards with at least 110 shots on goal, Lindholm has the second-lowest shooting percentage (6.9%), which is significantly lower than his 12% career average. In fact, Lindholm’s goal on Saturday (his last game with the Flames) was his first in 16 games. Lindholm's 987 PDO should improve just by being on the Canucks, a team that has completely flipped the PDO model on its head this season.
Lindholm's power-play production should also improve with a move to Van City. The Flames are a bottom-5 team in terms of power-play efficiency (13.8%), while the Canucks sport a top-10 power play (25.0%). I like anyone's fantasy value if they share a power play with Pettersson, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, and Quinn Hughes. Expect Lindholm to improve on his current 9 PPP playing on that first power play. This probably spells the end of Pius Suter's run on the top power play, although as showing above he could remain in the top 6 for evens.
Lindholm is most likely a rental for the Canucks. That being said, I wonder if Lindholm is a contingency plan for the Canucks if Pettersson remains noncommittal about his future in Vancouver once the Canucks' season finishes. It's not a perfect scenario given timing, as July 1 approaches very quickly and Pettersson may (probably will) need more time than that to firm up a contract. I believe Pettersson will ultimately sign with the Canucks, who have done everything possible in half a season to prove they can be a winner.
As for Kuzmenko, this represents a fresh start. I'd be surprised if the Flames don't use him in a top-6 role and on the first power play right away, as that is where he has thrived in the past. Ryan Huska might take it easier on Kuzmenko for his defensive play than Rick Tocchet did, which means that Kuzmenko won't have to overthink things and just play. The Flames seem to have juggled their lines all season aside from keeping Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman together, so it's anyone's guess exactly where Kuzmenko will fit in. He's not scoring 38 goals this season, but getting to 20 goals is still within reach.
Of course, you can read the full Fantasy Take of the Canucks/Flames trade here.
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Funny how the canucks always get mentioned as having an unsustainable PDO (105), but nobody ever mentions Boston rocking a 104 last year, and a 103 this year.