Lining Up: New Line Mates for Lindholm, Kuzmenko, Monahan, and Pearson

Peter Ryell

2024-02-06

Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up! This week we will take a look at the recent trades that have happened around the league and how the players might line up with their new rosters.

Let's dive in.

Elias Lindholm

Starting with the biggest fish, Elias Lindholm stands to see a massive shift in his line mates from the move. According to multiple sources, Lindholm is lining up alongside fellow Swede Elias Pettersson at even strength and has assumed Pius Suter's spot on the top power play unit. Lindholm has frequently played with Yegor Sharangovich, Johnathan Huberdeau or Andrew Mangiapane at even strength this season and he has consequently been on pace for his lowest point total since his time in Carolina. He has a very low personal shooting percentage of only 6.9% as well as a low points per 60 rating and PDO, so aside from an improvement in line mates, he is also due for some positive regression to come his way.

Furthermore, just changing power play units should provide to be a boost to his production. Calgary currently has the 4th worst power play conversion rate in the league whereas Vancouver is 9th. Vancouver almost has almost double the number of power play goals on the season with 40 to Calgary's 21. That is a big jump and simply being involved in a more potent offence should pay immediate dividends to Lindholm's production and value moving forward.

In the short term, Vancouver has four games still to come this week as teams start to get back into a normal schedule following the All-Star break. When looking at the playoff schedule, Vancouver also plays a high percentage of games on off-nights, with eight of their eleven games between March 25th and April 14th being on lighter days.

Andrei Kuzmenko

Looking at the other side of the deal, Andrei Kuzmenko is heading to Calgary and should also be in for a welcome change of scenery. Where Elias Lindholm is moving from a team that has been performing poorly offensively to one that is 2nd in Goals For per Game, Kuzmenko is doing the reverse. At first glance, that may indicate some cause for concern, but Kuzmenko may benefit simply from being utilized more often even if the team scores less. He has been the victim of multiple healthy scratches so far this season and has averaged 14:21 of TOI in spite of seeing nearly three and a half minutes of PPTOI. Meaning that his usage at even strength has been abysmal in Vancouver. Additionally, the obscene 26.8% shooting percentage he held last season has regressed to a more sustainable 12.7% and the predicted result has seen his production suffer.

However, early indications show that Kuzmenko will take Lindholm's place, playing on a line with Huberdeau and Sharangovich at even strength and join them on the first power play unit. Where Lindholm was averaging 20:45 of TOI on the season, Kuzmenko should see a big increase in ice time. That alone should help his production but do not expect him to return to last season's 74-point pace. Calgary also has three games remaining this week so he could at least be worth streaming in short term. Cautious optimism is the prudent course here.

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Sean Monahan

The other trade to happen during the All-Star break was Sean Monahan moving to Winnipeg and much like his counterparts above, he is immediately slotting into a good spot. He has been practicing on the first power play unit with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor and is lining up with Nikolaj Ehlers and Cole Perfetti on the second line at even strength. Unlike the disparity between the Vancouver and Calgary offense, Montreal and Winnipeg are actually more similar in production. On the season, they have a 4% difference in power play conversion and a 12-goal difference overall. Montreal sits in the bottom five teams in Goals For this season, but Winnipeg is decidedly middle of the pack with Connor and Scheifele both missing time. Given Monahan's recent hot streak of 11 points in seven games, it is fair to wonder whether or not there will be a "don't fix what's broken" sentiment in this move. Especially considering he has averaged 18:27 minutes of TOI with Montreal, that ice time is likely to come down, there is legitimate concern a lateral move will mute some of his production since he will likely not have the same role.

As noted last week though, five of his last seven points came with the man advantage. A dip in even strength ice time might not hurt as much if he can maintain more than a 60% share of power play time with top unit. Especially given that Scheifele is set to return, Winnipeg may see their team power play metrics rise with a healthy forward group.  

With Monahan leaving, there is now a vacancy on a top power play unit that has been producing lately. As noted by Brennan Des last week, since the beginning of December, Montreal is 11th with a power play conversion rate of 23.4%. Early indications show that Tanner Pearson will get the first crack on that unit, but it is also possible that Alex Newhook receives an opportunity as he is set to return as early as Saturday from his injury. Newhook was on a 46-point pace prior to the injury but that was with less than a 40% share of the power play time. Pearson on the other hand has seen even less usage with the man advantage and is subsequently on a 22-point pace for the season. Keep an eye out for the line combinations upon Newhook's return. At just 2% rostered in Yahoo leagues he could be a decent streaming option if he gets on that top unit as Montreal plays five games in eight days starting this weekend with a back-to-back Saturday and Sunday.

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