Today on Frozen Tools Forensics we are going to embark on another little mini-series. Last week we looked at IPP, and we will be continuing to review some other 'underlying' numbers in the next few weeks as well. This week though, I wanted to turn to another data point where we don't typically spend a lot of time: age.

Big picture age is a pretty impactful number for a player's career trajectory and projections. Generally younger players improve year to year, peaking in their mid-20s and then decline in their 30s. It isn't something that I usually spend a lot of time on midseason as we have other more predictive stats. It is sometimes worth pausing for a moment to recognize where a player might be in their trajectory. So for today we are going to highlight some young players. And not just young players, but specifically those who have been doing well over the last month. We will be digging into their player profiles to see if what we have been seeing recently is a flash in the pan, or a harbinger of things to come.

As far as process goes, I pulled the Big Board report for all skaters on February 15 for the last 30 days. The report is great because it offers a very solid cross section of stats including scoring, time on ice, age, and contract status info. I pulled it for 30 days using the custom reporting feature which is perfect for these sorts of questions. Once I had the data, I exported it so I can reorganize some of the columns to make it easier to sort, and present in this article.

The table specifically includes skater information (name, position, age, and team), basic scoring information (goals, assists, points, points per game, and shots), as well as basic deployment information (percent of the team's total power-play time, and total time on ice). The table is then sorted by points per game over the sample.

First up we have Brock Faber. Back in January a Frozen Tools article recommended that you stop reading and immediately go and pick up Faber. I hope you listened. At the time Faber was getting great deployment, had strong peripherals, but the points hadn't materialized yet. His 12 points in 10 games has certainly changed that narrative. Faber is in strong contention for rookie of the year and I have absolutely nothing bad to say about him. 1.2 points per game going forward? Probably not, but there is every reason to believe he will continue getting massive minutes across the board and he seems to have an offensive side that hasn't been present on the Minnesota blue line for a long time. He is a rookie so we can take some of this with a grain of salt (see Moritz Seider as maybe a slightly cautionary tale), but things are looking very good for Faber.

Juraj Slafkovsky is in something of a similar boat here. He has been great over the last month, which just highlights the opportunity he is getting. In technically his second season, he is finally getting a real opportunity to produce. He has been lining up on the top line and top power-play for some time, but things have really started clicking over the past few weeks. Point per game might be a little rich at the moment (his shooting percentage over this time period is quite high) but this does sort of feel like an 'arrived' moment. If we back up to December 13, which is where we first see a big spike in ice time, he has put up 20 points in 25 games (about a 65-point pace). His shooting percentage over that time is still a bit high, so if we regress that a little bit, we maybe deserved something in the 60-point range. Overall, I see a number one overall pick on a top power play and top line currently earning at least 60-point pace, who has been trending up over the last several weeks. It is hard not to be optimistic here.

Quinton Byfield is somehow only 21. He got six games in 2020-21, but we will call this his third official season. Similarly to Slafkovsky he has finally gotten out of the bottom six into some top-line deployment. The other big change is that he is getting time on the wing when that didn't seem like it was the original plan. Overall, this means Byfield is getting his highest average ice time to date, the most power-play time, and the highest shot rates. All of this adds up to a 65-point pace to date. There are a lot of good things here, but still a few question marks. Even though technically he has been on the top line and spent time on the top power play, his ice time numbers aren't great. It has been slightly better over the last 30 days, but on the season, he is down below 16 minutes a night in total, and less than two and a half minutes total on the power play. Those aren't really top line numbers. Again, slightly better of the last 30 days, but generally he has been at or below two shots per game on average with an elevated shooting percentage. Low shot rates and a high shooting percentage are not really an equation for future success. He is currently at 147 games played so could be crossing that 200-game breakout threshold next season. 60-65 points seems pretty reasonable to expect going forward, but if he can boost that ice time to be a true top line player (both of his linemates see noticeably more time on ice) next season might be even better.

Lucas Raymond is in his third season and has been solidly in the 60ish point pace camp each season. There really isn't too much that is remarkable about his current pace or season. Thus far he is essentially in line to do it again. He has recently been lining up with Dylan Larkin and Alex Debrincat, which is a nice place to be in Detroit, but he has also spent time away from Larkin during the course of the season. With Patrick Kane healthy again that is the main concern. As long as Raymond can hang on to time with Larkin at even strength and the power play, I expect Raymond to keep on keeping on.

Finally, we have Wyatt Johnston. He is really the only downer on this list. For the most part that doesn't really have anything to do with him, but the fact that he has now been shuffled off of the top line with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. For a few weeks he had the benefit of taking Joe Pavelski's usual spot at even strength. He did pretty well with it, essentially getting multi-point outings every other game. Recently though he has cooled off and it has correlated with him being moved back to the third line. That was still the case as of their game on February 13. As long as he is in the bottom six, he isn't worth rostering in most fantasy formats, though this little burst certainly does give some optimism for what he might be able to do in the future with top deployment.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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