Ramblings: Fiala Flying; Kaprizov Climbing; Gustavsson in the Bin; Hot Hyman (Mar 4)
Brennan Des
2024-03-04
The Rangers announced an extension for Jonathan Quick on Sunday, signing the 38-year-old netminder to a cap hit of $1.275 million next season. Quick has been great for New York this year, boasting a 13-5-2 record, 2.45 GAA and .916 SV%. His strong play gave the team some breathing room while star goalie Igor Shesterkin struggled. Fortunately, it seems the storm has been weathered, as Shesterkin holds a 4-0-1 record in his last five starts, alongside a sparkling 1.38 GAA and .963 SV%.
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21-year-old Kent Johnson is set to have shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum this week. He'll be sidelined for the rest of the season. Johnson finishes the year with a 31-point pace and an average ice time of 13 and a half minutes. Drafted fifth overall in 2021, he still has plenty of potential waiting to be unlocked.
In more Blue Jackets' injury news, netminder Elvis Merzlikins is officially day-to-day with an upper-body injury. It's likely he misses Monday's game against the Golden Knights. Hopefully this doesn't disrupt his momentum, as he'd finally strung a few good games together. Merzlikins has allowed just two goals in each of his last three starts. The last time he had three quality starts in a row was back in late November.
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Charlie Lindgren had a disappointing showing against Arizona, surrendering four goals on 27 shots. These poor performances have become a little more common lately. After posting an impressive 2.22 GAA and .927 SV% over his first 18 games of the campaign, he holds a shocking 3.83 GAA and .873 SV% in his last 12 starts. The Capitals have a relatively difficult schedule from here on out, so hopefully you don't have all your eggs in Charlie's Bucket. That might land you up a chocolate river without a paddle – the Augustus Gloop special.
Dylan Strome posted an assist against the Coyotes and now has 11 points in his last seven appearances. This isn't just a flash in the pan as Strome has 37 points in 40 games since the beginning of December. His production during this period ranks top-35 in the league, ahead of big-name centers like Brayden Point and Bo Horvat.
Matias Maccelli registered an assist on Sunday, extending his point streak to six games. As you probably know, Arizona's leading scorer, Clayton Keller, has been sidelined with an injury for the past four games. In Keller's absence, Maccelli leads the team with six points, posting an average ice time of 19:45. That's a sizeable increase from the 16:28 he averaged before Keller went down. Part of this production is explained by a new role on Arizona's top power-play unit. In these four games without Keller, Maccelli enjoyed a 71% share of power-play time and posted three points with the man advantage. He was stuck in a smaller PP role previously. Seeing 38% of Arizona's power-play time, he managed just six PPPs in his previous 57 games. Although Maccelli has had a strong season overall, I worry that this recent hot streak will end once Keller returns to the lineup.
20-year-old Dylan Guenther had his first career three-point game on Sunday, tallying a goal and two assists against the Capitals. Guenther continues to prove why he was a top-10 pick in 2021. He's scoring at a 58-point pace this year – a significant step up from the 37-point pace he posted as a rookie last season. This extra offense has been fuelled by increased opportunity. His ice time is up nearly three minutes since last year, and his power-play role has jumped from 36% to 64%.
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Normally known for his defensive prowess, Phillip Danault flipped the script on Sunday, recording just the second hat trick of his 600+ game career. While Danault's three-point game is likely just a blip, linemate Kevin Fiala's three-pointer could be evidence of ascension. With back-to-back three-point games, Fiala now has 12 points in his last seven outings. Elite play down the stretch is something we've seen frequently from Fiala in recent years, so sit back and let the King of Spring do his thing. Trevor Moore, the third piece of LA's 'second' line, also had a productive Sunday with two points. After opening the year with 19 points in his first 19 games, Moore has just 23 in his last 41 – but five in his last four. Hopefully, Fiala's rise also leads to more from Trevor.
Cam Talbot allowed just one goal on Sunday and has now limited the opposition to one goal in four of his last five outings. Talbot has started LA's last three contests, so it seems he's reclaimed control of the King's crease. I imagine we'll see a 1A/1B split between him and David Rittich from here on out. Rittich has played well enough to see more action than a traditional backup, and it also makes sense to limit Talbot's action so that the 36-year-old is fresh for the playoffs. I've mentioned before how the Kings have a favourable schedule from here on out, so rostering both goalies in your fantasy league is not a bad idea.
Timo Meier scored New Jersey's lone goal against the Kings, giving him three goals and three assists in his last five games. He's been skating on New Jersey's top line beside the talented tandem of Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt. Although a lack of power-play opportunity limits Meier's overall production, he could close out the season on a high note if stays beside Hischier and Bratt. With New Jersey's playoff hopes shrinking, there's a chance the Devils trade pending free agent Tyler Toffoli ahead of this Friday's trade deadline. A Toffoli trade would free up a spot on New Jersey's top power-play unit – likely to be filled by Meier.
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Kirill Kaprizov's hat trick heroics led Minnesota to a 4-3 win over San Jose on Sunday. After opening the year with eight goals in his first 29 games, Kaprizov has 21 his last 26. Since December 19th, Auston Matthews is the only player with more goals per game (min. 15 GP).
Another day, another brutal start for Filip Gustavsson. He's been the league's worst starting goalie since mid-December – and that's based on both traditional GAA/SV% metrics and the more informative GSAx (goals saved above expected) metric from Evolving Hockey. He's allowed three or more goals in 16 of his last 19 games (84%). I had previously endorsed Gustavsson because he plays behind a competent defensive team that has one of the league's most favourable remaining schedules. Unfortunately, Gustavsson has been playing poorly for a long time now, and it's hard to see why that would change any time soon. A matchup against the lowly Sharks would've been the perfect opportunity to build confidence and kickstart a hot streak, but instead he surrendered three goals on 15 shots. We know he can succeed in this league based on last year's performance, but some growing pains are to be expected as he's just 25 years old. I expect he'll bounce back at some point in the future, but I think we're running out of runway for that bounceback to happen this season.
There were a couple of key absences from Sunday's clash between San Jose and Minnesota, but as I write this, there's no reason to believe Mats Zuccarello or William Eklund will be out long term.
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Down 2-1 to the Sabres, coach Rick Bowness promoted Vladislav Namestnikov to Winnipeg's top line beside Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. The move paid dividends as that new line sparked two goals, one to tie the game and one on an empty net. Namestnikov had just one point in 14 games prior to Sunday, so I wouldn't exactly rush to add him in all leagues. However, he could provide sneaky value in deeper formats if these line combinations stick for Tuesday's clash with the Kraken.
Sunday was Josh Morrissey's sixth multi-point game in his last seven appearances. He has 16 points in his last eight outings, which puts him in a tie with Connor McDavid for the league lead during this stretch.
Sean Monahan scored his eighth goal with Winnipeg in just his 12th game as a Jet. He has a lofty 28% shooting percentage during this stretch, so I wouldn't bet on this level of lamp-lighting for the rest of the season.
Thrown into the unenviable position of starting games on back-to-back nights, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen gave the Sabres a chance to win on Sunday, stopping 30 of the 33 shots he faced for a .909 SV%. He's posted a save percentage of .909 or greater in nine of his last 10 starts, displaying a consistently high floor that most around the league haven't been able to match.
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With an illness keeping John Gibson out of Sunday's clash with the Canucks, Lukas Dostal stopped 29 of 31 shots in a close 2-1 loss. It was another strong performance from Dostal, who was fresh off a 52-save win against the Devils on Friday. He could be an option if you're desperate for starts, but I'd hesitate to endorse him given the current state of Anaheim's roster. Speaking of which, the Ducks were also without Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson on Sunday. Unfortunately, it sounds like McTavish could miss some time…
As a result of the team's injuries, Max Jones has been skating in Anaheim's top six. He tallied an assist on Sunday and has four points in his last four games.
Sunday marked Elias Lindholm's sixth-straight game without a point. He has just six points in 14 games since joining the Canucks – with two of those points coming in his debut with the team. Vancouver is averaging 2.71 goals per game since the Lindholm trade, which ranks 28th in the league. Prior to the trade, they sat atop the league with 3.80 goals per game. The Canucks benefitted from a fair bit of luck earlier in the year, in the form of a high team shooting percentage. Although some of these recent offensive struggles are likely a product of regression, Lindholm's integration hasn't been as seamless as one might've hoped.
Nils Hoglander scored his 19th goal in his 61st game of the season. It's an incredibly impressive feat considering he's averaging less than 12 minutes of action on the year – although he has seen more action in recent games. Only Zach Hyman and Auston Matthews have more goals per 60 minutes than Hoglander this season. It'll be interesting to see how the 23-year-old forward adapts to more opportunity as he continues to develop.
It was a relatively quiet night for Vancouver's star forwards, but less so for the team's blueliners. After posting an assist each on Sunday, both Quinn Hughes (1st) and Filip Hronek (10th) rank top-10 in scoring among defensemen.
After struggling in his past few starts, backup Casey DeSmith finally had a strong outing, stopping 17 of the 18 shots Anaheim threw his way.
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Sunday's iteration of the Sidney Crosby vs. Connor McDavid battle lacked the compete we've seen previously as the Oilers waltzed their way to a 6-1 victory over Pittsburgh. Edmonton's top line led the way as Leon Draisaitl tallied three points, while McDavid and Zach Hyman each had two.
No one's scored more than Hyman over the past two weeks as he leads the league with 10 goals in his last eight games. Hyman has 42 goals on the season – Auston Matthews (53) is the only player in the league with more.
After starting the year with 35 points in his first 31 outings (1.13 points per game), Draisaitl now has 43 in his last 28 (1.54 p/g). He's heating up just in time for the fantasy playoffs.
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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!
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Nice. I made some bold moves recently to acquire the hot players you mentioned. Traded Zibanejad for Hyman and traded Petterson for Kaprizov. I already owned Fiala. So I’m enjoying the ride for our playoffs now.
Awesome to hear! Hope those smart swaps lead you to the promised land this season :)
Thanks!