Ramblings: Novak Extended; Eichel Returns; Ruff Fired; Improved Values for Guenther, Roslovic, Kylington, and More – March 5

Michael Clifford

2024-03-05

The NHL Trade Deadline is at the end of the week and for any new readers over the last 12 months, we will have trade breakdowns all day long on Friday, March 8th. For the instant fantasy analysis and impact needed when these trades do happen, be sure to check back here because those articles will be posted within hours of the trades themselves being announced.

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Jack Eichel was back in the lineup on Monday night for Vegas, skating on the top line with Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault. William Karlsson was centering the second line with Chandler Stephenson and Michael Amadio.

Vegas didn't give him a very warm welcome back, though, as the team lost in Columbus 6-3. Alex Nylander had a hat trick – seriously – while Yegor Chinakhov, Justin Danforth, and Erik Gudbranson scored the others. That makes six points in five games for Nylander and he has more goals in the last week than Evgeni Malkin has in calendar 2024. Thought I'd throw that in there for the Penguins fans.

Stephenson had a goal and an assist while William Karlsson and Mason Morelli scored the others.

Daniil Tarasov stopped 37 of 40 shots for the win.

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A positive update on Flyers forward Travis Konecny:

Konecny had missed five games heading into Monday night and didn't play that one, either. Philadelphia has a couple of days off before heading to Florida so it might be the last game he misses, but we'll provide updates as we get them.

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Toronto's new defenceman Ilya Lyubushkin took a hard hit on Saturday night and left the game. He was back at morning skate on Monday, though, and played Monday night. It seems he's no worse for the wear.

Boston beat Toronto on Monday night 4-1. David Pastrnak had a trio of primary helpers (one PP) to go with seven shots in the contest while Pavel Zacha ended up not only dressing, but scoring twice (one PP). Jake DeBrusk also had a multi-point game with a goal and an assist, adding four hits. That is DeBrusk's second multi-point game in the last seven, but he also has just those four points in his last 16 games.

John Tavares scored the lone Toronto goal, registering four total shots and eight (!) hits.

Jeremy Swayman stopped 32 of 33 shots in the win.

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Not the best news on Dylan Larkin, but certainly not the worst, either:

If he is out two weeks, it would mean seven games missed. JT Compher is about to get a lot more responsibility. It is a wonder if Joe Veleno doesn't get a lot more run; he was getting top-6 minutes earlier in the season.

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Nashville signed forward Tommy Novak to an extension:

Novak has been very productive on a per-minute basis for over a year now, but he just doesn't get enough ice time or peripherals to be very productive in fantasy leagues. Until those minutes creep up, he won't be more than a deep league option, but there is a lot more production upside.

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New Jersey fired coach Lindy Ruff. After reaching the second round last season, the Devils appear headed to a missed playoff appearance, and that cost Ruff his job. Travis Green is taking over in the interim.

What changes the Devils make remains to be seen. Ruff had his issues but a lot of this falls on goaltending that is heading for a bottom-3 save percentage for the third time in four years. Injuries have not helped matters, but this team has not had a reliable, league average goalie in years.

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Jordan Binnington stopped 40 of 41 shots in St. Louis's 2-1 shootout win in Philadelphia on Monday night. He is up to a .912 save percentage with 22 wins on the season in what has been a very good rebound year from him.

Scott Laughton and Kevin Hayes scored goals for their respective teams. That goal for Hayes was just his second in the last 31 games, and first in 20 games. He picked a pretty funny place to break that goalless drought.

Travis Sanheim had an assist, three shots, and three blocks in a solid multi-cat night.

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A pair of goals from Sam Reinhart (one on the PP) helped Florida to a 4-2 win in New York on Monday night. Reinhart now has 44 goals on the season and after going seven games without a tally, he now has five in three games.

Ryan Lomberg and Anton Lundell (EN) scored the others for the Panthers. Gustav Forsling had a pair of helpers and two blocks in the win. He is now up to 30 points in 61 games and is pacing for another 40-point season with minimal power play production. He will be 28 next season so his contract this summer will be interesting to see.

Chris Kreider and Will Cuylle scored the goals for the Rangers, both of them coming on the power play. Jacob Trouba assisted on Cuylle's goal, had two shots, four blocks, two PIMs, and three hits in a great multi-cat night.

It should probably be mentioned, but Aleksander Barkov's assist on Reinhart's first goal was on the of the best assists we'll see all season:

Uh, yeah.

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Alex Wennberg was held out of the lineup for trade-related reasons, but Seattle still took a 4-2 win over Calgary. Goals from Yanni Gourde, Jared McCann (SH), Oliver Bjorkstrand, and Adam Larsson got the Kraken the two points. Speaking of two points, McCann also had an assist so he has 26 points in his last 20 games with seven multi-point efforts in the mix.

Andrei Kuzmenko scored both goals for Calgary in the loss, posting seven shots as he was moved to Nazem Kadri's line in place of the injured Connor Zary.

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With the deadline approaching, fantasy leagues have their own trade deadlines coming soon. It is worth looking at some younger players that have seen improvements of late and may make good trade targets in various fantasy formats. We will be using a lot of the Frozen Tools for this with additional data from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey. Cap information is from Cap Friendly.

Dylan Guenther

At the top of the list is Dylan Guenther, who has been very impressive in his second season. He is up to eight goals and nine assists in 24 games with eight of those points being on the power play. His 55 shots and 17 hits aren't tremendous peripheral production, but aren't harmful, either.

Importantly for Guenther is the jump in ice time he is seeing. His last 10 games have him at 16:19 per contest compared to the 15:13 he earned up to that point. A few of his highest TOI games in that recent span were with Clayton Keller in the lineup, too, so it wasn't just related to injuries in the lineup. To go with that ice time is a jump in shot attempts as he sits at 21.1 attempts/60 minutes since the All-Star break, a number that was under 15.0/60 before that.  

From next Monday through April 14th, Arizona has 16 games, which isn't a lot but is around the middle of the league, and seven of those games are on light days. In fact, once they get past their games next week – in Minnesota, in Detroit, at home to New Jersey – over half their games in the next four weeks are on lighter days, with the light games skewing towards the end of the schedule. Coyotes skaters will be important as the season winds down, Guenther among them.

Jack Roslovic

A lot depends on what happens with Jack Roslovic this week. His name has been put on the TSN Trade Deadline board, which makes sense because he's a pending unrestricted free agent. It matters because right now, he's skating on the top line with Johnny Gaudreau and Boone Jenner, and he has 10 points with 32 shots on goal in nine games since being moved to that line (heading into Monday night's game against Vegas). The trio has been legitimately good offensively, too, with 3.6 expected goals/60 at 5-on-5, creating over 35 shots/60, in nearly 200 minutes together. The shooting percentages are a bit high, but that level of creation lends itself high production rates.

Roslovic was not on either power play over the weekend, which is curious, but that shows the upside moving forward. If he gets traded at the Deadline to a playoff team, it's unlikely he skates 18-19 minutes a night as he has been, but a downturn in ice time may be offset by skating on his future team's power play. The uptick in shot volume recently is not normal for him however his 7.4 shots/60 minutes this season is a career-high, so maybe he can still chip in a few shots if he gets traded.

Alex Newhook

Third of the three forwards on the list is Alex Newhook and it's because of his team's schedule. With 16 games in the period we're looking at, they have as many as Arizona discussed earlier, but only one of Montreal's 16 games is on a light day (and it's the second of a back-to-back in New York to face the Rangers and there are actually eight other games that Sunday, April 7th). It is not a great stretch to have Montreal Canadiens skaters on the fantasy roster.

Of course, the reason he's here is his power play role. He has taken over for Sean Monahan since the trade, and that has meant over four minutes of PP ice time per game for Newhook in his last 11 games. His 73.8% of the team's PPTOI is a monster jump over the 38.2% he received in the 23 games prior. There have been just two power play points for him in those recent 11 games, but we can't ask for much more than just the opportunity.

Beyond that, it seems as if he's formed a solid second-line duo with Joshua Roy. It is a small sample, of course, but the shots/expected goal creation numbers at 5-on-5 are very good:

He even has seven hits, six blocks, and 22 shots in the 11 games since his return. The schedule isn't in his favour, but the deployment is.

Oliver Kylington

There was always going to be opportunity for Kylington down the stretch if Calgary traded both Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev. One of them has already been traded and the other seems to be on his way out the door (though that can always change). In Kylington's first game without Tanev in the lineup, he skated 20:31 which was a season-high by over four minutes.

Since his return 13 games ago, Kylington is averaging 6.5 blocks per 60 minutes at all strengths, which means he could be around two blocks per game if he can keep earning 20 minutes-or-more per night. He also has at least two shots on goal in six straight games and may get some secondary power play time if (when) Hanifin is traded.

From Monday, March 18th through Sunday, April 14th, only five of Calgary's 13 games are against playoff teams and two of those five games are against Los Angeles. It isn't a heavy schedule, but it is an easy schedule, and that matters, too.

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