Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

—

1. As underwhelming as recent trade deadlines have been, it seemed like this year’s version had a bit more action, with many playoff-bound teams loading up. For a recap of all the trades, as well as links to the fantasy takes on the more impactful trades, go to our Trade Deadline Tracker. Mike Clifford and Alex MacLean performed most of the heavy lifting, so shout out to those two in particular for all their work. (mar9)

2. Wednesday was also a busy day on the trade front as all of Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Wennberg, Casey Mittelstadt, Bowen Byram, and Noah Hanifin found new homes. To see what Alex had to say about those deals, just click through here.

In yesterday’s Ramblings, I touched on the Tarasenko trade and what it means for Florida. I wanted to give thoughts on the Byram-Mittelstadt trade because they are two interesting players.  

There had been rumours that Mittelstadt was on the trade block but it seemed as one of those “believe it when we see it”-type of rumours. It came to fruition, and both players get fresh starts in new franchises. As I’ve often stated, Mittelstadt is a player I thought did not have the next gear to be an impact NHLer. He has very much turned his fortunes around the last couple of seasons with high-level playmaking; he is 1 of 15 regular forwards averaging north of 1.0 primary assists/60 at 5-on-5 over the last two campaigns, and he has a higher overall assists/60 at 5-on-5 than names like Matthew Tkachuk, Kevin Fiala, and Robert Thomas. He has helped elevate the scoring of the players not on Buffalo’s top line and that, along with passable defense, is what made him appealing to Colorado as they push for another Stanley Cup. (mar8)

[Follow the link for the full analysis…]

3. Quickly on Tarasenko, there isn’t a lot to add to what Alex had to say but I view it a bit differently. None of Florida’s bottom-6 forwards are averaging more than 15:30 per game in calendar 2024, so there won’t be a TOI bump, and he won’t move ahead of Sam Reinhart or Matthew Tkachuk on the depth chart without an injury. Maybe they try him on the left side (or on the right with Tkachuk on the left), but Tarasenko is a defensive liability and having him in such a prominent role on a Cup contender would be a bit of cause for concern. He goes to a much better team, but it’s not necessarily a better fantasy situation for him. And, as pointed out in the replies to one of Dobber’s tweets, Ottawa had more games in hand, so Tarasenko loses those for fantasy managers. (mar7)

4. If there were ever a player in need of a fresh start, it’s Evgeny Kuznetsov. Wait and see on his usage and production before adding him, though. Kuznetsov could be anything from a second-line center to a press box regular for the Hurricanes, but he should receive prime deployment at some point. The question is whether Kuznetsov still has something left, as he has gone from a point-per-game pace two seasons ago to a 32-point full-season pace (minus games missed) this season. Add him to your watch list and see what happens, but this seems to be a worthwhile gamble for the Canes, who are only paying half of his $7.8 million cap hit. (mar9)

5. One big ripple (a wave?) from the Tyler Toffoli trade to Winnipeg is the potential for Timo Meier‘s value to shoot through the roof. If you’ve remained patient with Meier for the entire season, you’re finally being rewarded. Meier recorded a hat trick on Thursday, and another goal on Saturday, which gives him goals in five consecutive games. When he’s on his game, Meier is a multicategory beast. Meier has been on the second power play for much of the season for the Devils, but he likely moves up to the top power play with Toffoli gone. Yep, it’s Timo Time again – just in time for your fantasy playoffs. (mar9)

6. Tomas Hertl to Vegas… wow. It seemed like Vegas was going to slide one more move in, but I don’t think any of the insiders suspected it was Hertl until the Bobfather jumped into the ring in the final minutes and delivered the knockout blow. 

The Golden Knights are that team in your fantasy league that exploits the loopholes that force offseason rule changes. Now we wait and see whether the NHL takes action so that LTIR isn’t so easy to exploit. Vegas is hardly the only team to take advantage of this, but it’s gotten to the point where we expect them to. As long as Mark Stone is on the roster (under contract for three more years after this one), it’s a possibility. They have more than their share of prominent Band-Aid Boys for potential LTIR usage, which also include Hertl, Jack Eichel, Anthony Mantha, and Shea Theodore.

One stat that I’ll pretty much guarantee improves for Hertl now that he is no longer on the Sharks is his plus-minus. Entering Saturday, Hertl was a minus-26, while no Knights player was lower than a minus-9. Hertl didn’t even have the worst plus-minus on the Sharks. Young William Eklund was minus-34. What a way to spend your first full season in the NHL. (mar9)

7. Kent Johnson‘s season is over, as he will need six months of recovery following surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. By that estimate, Johnson should be ready in time for training camp, although this is something to monitor in case recovery takes longer than expected. The 21-year-old Johnson took a bit of a step back this season, finishing with 16 points in 42 games while being sent to the AHL for 10 games. He is still only 21 years of age, so he still has tremendous upside. He could be a player to buy low on, especially if Columbus eventually figures things out. (mar9)

8. Logan Couture told reporters that he won’t be able to return this season due to a groin injury, although he hopes to return next season. Couture was held to just six games this season, recording just one assist. Soon to be 35 years of age, Couture has three more seasons left at a cap hit of $8 million on a barren Sharks roster that just traded longtime teammate Hertl. That’s a bleak situation to be in if his goal is to win a Stanley Cup before his career ends. (mar9)

9. Gustav Forsling signed an eight-year extension with a cap hit of $5.75M. He has 31 points in 62 games this season for Florida, pacing for over 40 points/82-games for the third season in a row. He won’t ascend in the fantasy game without top PP time, and that’s not coming anytime soon, so fantasy managers will have a decision to make next season about whether this price bump is worth his production. (mar8)

10. Nashville signed forward Tommy Novak to an extension: Three more years, 3.5M$ AAV. Novak has been very productive on a per-minute basis for over a year now, but he just doesn’t get enough ice time or peripherals to be very productive in fantasy leagues. Until those minutes creep up, he won’t be more than a deep league option, but there is a lot more production upside. (mar5)

11. New Jersey fired coach Lindy Ruff. After reaching the second round last season, the Devils appear headed to a missed playoff appearance, and that cost Ruff his job. Travis Green is taking over in the interim.

What changes the Devils make remains to be seen. Ruff had his issues but a lot of this falls on goaltending that is heading for a bottom-3 save percentage for the third time in four years. Injuries have not helped matters, but this team has not had a reliable, league average goalie in years. (mar5)

12. Fantasy leagues have their own trade deadlines coming soon. It is worth looking at some younger players that have seen improvements of late and may make good trade targets in various fantasy formats. We will be using a lot of the Frozen Tools for this with additional data from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey. Cap information is from Cap Friendly. At time of writing:

Dylan Guenther

At the top of the list is Guenther, who has been very impressive in his second season. He is up to eight goals and nine assists in 24 games with eight of those points being on the power play. His 55 shots and 17 hits aren’t tremendous peripheral production, but aren’t harmful, either.

Importantly for Guenther is the jump in ice time he is seeing. His last 10 games have him at 16:19 per contest compared to the 15:13 he earned up to that point. A few of his highest TOI games in that recent span were with Clayton Keller in the lineup, too, so it wasn’t just related to injuries in the lineup. To go with that ice time is a jump in shot attempts as he sits at 21.1 attempts/60 minutes since the All-Star break, a number that was under 15.0/60 before that.  

From next Monday through April 14^th, Arizona has 16 games, which isn’t a lot but is around the middle of the league, and seven of those games are on light days. In fact, once they get past their games next week – in Minnesota, in Detroit, at home to New Jersey – over half their games in the next four weeks are on lighter days, with the light games skewing towards the end of the schedule. Coyotes skaters will be important as the season winds down, Guenther among them. (mar5)

[Follow the link for more…]

13. Moritz Seider was recently traded in one of my cap leagues, and part of the reason was how scary his upcoming contract is. Owen Power is someone that Buffalo hopes turns into Seider in the next year or two, and he has already signed a $8.35 million AAV contract. That probably sets the minimum bar for Seider, assuming he is looking long-term. The high-water mark could be Power’s Buffalo teammate in Rasmus Dahlin, who signed an eight-year deal with an $11 million AAV.

From the management side, Steve Yzerman’s history with the Lightning indicates that he likes to go long-term (five or more years) with his “core” players. That hasn’t always been the case yet in Detroit, signing Alex DeBrincat and Michael Rasmussen to more mid-term deals, but the expectation should be that a long-term deal would be the way to go with Seider.

Yzerman’s history with long-term extensions is varied:

The Good: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, J.T. Miller.
The Bad: Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh, Tyler Johnson.

What this tells me, is that Yzerman extending the second-line level players didn’t go all that well, but the top-line players were all bargains relatively quickly. I would expect the same with Seider here, possibly looking at an AAV in the $9 million range. It will be expensive, but he should be worth it. He’s again pacing above 0.5 points per game, is a peripherals monster, and has so much room to grow. (mar6)

14. Max Comtois has likely been off your fantasy radar for a while now, and while he doesn’t need to be put back on it right away, he’s approaching that level, and maybe we see him work his way back to a one-way contract for next season. He has signed a two-way contract with the Carolina Hurricanes (who don’t have an AHL affiliate) so for now he will continue with the Chicago Wolves, where he had 28 points and a minus-17 rating through 45 games at time of writing. (mar6)

15. I traded for Filip Gustavsson in one league recently, as I don’t have a ton left to play for in that league, so it’s a move with two eyes on the 2024-25 season and beyond. His numbers prior to arriving in the NHL were excellent, and prior to this season, his overall impacts were solid, including a fantastic 2022-23 season where he won 22 of 39 appearances, with a GAA of 2.10 and a .931 sv%. This year has been tough, with the team in front of him missing multiple regulars on defense, and some inconsistencies creeping into his game. At only 25 years old though, and with a bit more time before Jesper Wallstedt is ready for a full-time role, it’s as good of a gamble as any that he rebounds to be a plus-value goalie next year. (mar6)

16. When it comes to fantasy hockey goalies, I will often wait until after pick 100 to get a goalie, and I can still find an Ilya Samsonov, Jacob Markstrom, or Tristan Jarry there to be my number one guy. It’s not foolproof, but it means I can milk the more guaranteed value for my first few draft picks on skaters, who are more consistent season to season.

However, when the value is there, picking up an Ilya Sorokin, a Jake Oettinger, or an Igor Shesterkin at the beginning of the draft, you have to consider just how elite these players are, and the difference that they can make for your team compared to the next set of tiers. Especially with the rise in timeshares, the top-tier goalies are as valuable as ever, but if you miss out on them, /then/ it’s worth waiting to draft one. (mar6)

17. After posting an impressive 2.22 GAA and .927 SV% over his first 18 games of the campaign, Charlie Lindgren held a shocking 3.83 GAA and .873 SV% in his last 12 starts before Thursday's 39-save shutout. (mar4)

18. Nils Hoglander scored his 19^th goal in his 61^st game of the season. It’s an incredibly impressive feat considering he averages less than 12 minutes of action per game on the year – although he has seen more action in recent games. At time of writing, only Zach Hyman and Auston Matthews had more goals per 60 minutes than Hoglander this season. It’ll be interesting to see how the 23-year-old forward adapts to more opportunities as he continues to develop. (mar4)

19. It has been a bit over a month since the NHL returned from its All-Star break and while it doesn’t give us a large sample, it’s enough to work with for ice time purposes. The Trade Deadline is tomorrow and players that have seen improved usage could see that tick up (or down) even more across the next six weeks. Let’s highlight some key skaters who have seen improved usage of late with the help of our Frozen Tools Report Generator and Natural Stat Trick. We will look at the Christmas break to the All-Star break and compare it to the games since then, looking only at players with at least eight appearances in each sample. For example, at time of writing:

Zach Benson

One of Benson’s teammates has seen his usage go the other way, and we’ll get to that, but the lineup getting healthier has been to Benson’s power play expense; he’s literally earned less than 1% of Buffalo’s PPTOI since the All-Star break. He doesn’t have a power play point yet this season, so it’s not as if fantasy managers were relying on that PPTOI. The upside is that with Kyle Okposo traded at the deadline, Benson seems to be the only player on the roster with a realistic chance of taking his minutes. (mar7)

20. Egor Zamula

Other than Kevin Korchinski and Alec Martinez, who saw their PP roles disappear because other options got healthy, no defenseman lost a bigger share of their team’s PP time than Zamula (-20%). He was on Philadelphia’s top unit in their shootout loss to St. Louis earlier this week, so maybe that ticks back up (especially with Jamie Drysdale injured), and that’s important for his value as 7/17 of his points have been with the man advantage. The Flyers PP is not good, but whatever fantasy value Zamula has relies on it, and he at least has that chance back for now. (mar7)

21. Jordan Greenway

Along with Okposo, one of the biggest risers was Jordan Greenway. Since the All-Star break, he has been earning 18:25 per Fgame overall, a huge jump from the 16:30 before the break. Part of that has been a 33.1% jump in PPTOI share, and he has been on the Tage Thompson unit of late. He had four goals in his final 15 games with Buffalo last season and looks to be in line for a late-season surge once again. He is rostered in most banger leagues, but he may even have points-only value depending on how deep the individual league is. (mar7)

[Follow the link for more…]

—

Have a good week, folks!
Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.