Ramblings: Updates on Ekblad, Norris, and Demko; Ottawa’s Power Play; Zadina’s Production Rise – March 12

Michael Clifford

2024-03-12

With Jack Roslovic traded to New York before the deadline, there was an open spot on Columbus's top line next to Boone Jenner and Johnny Gaudreau. There were a number of candidates to take the role but Yegor Chinakhov ended up on that line. Part of that may be the injury suffered by Justin Danforth, who had spent some time on the top line this season, and for whom we got an update on Monday:

Not ideal for the forward, but hopefully it won't be long-term.

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Vancouver said that goalie Thatcher Demko is expected to miss a few games, but that that's their wording rather than "we'll see" or "week-to-week" is very good news. Demko left Vancouver's game on Saturday but didn't see in obvious pain, so that it doesn't appear serious is good news. The Canucks have just two games this week, and one of them is at home to Colorado, so maybe not the worst week for fantasy managers to not have Demko on the roster.

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Florida provided an update on defenceman Aaron Ekblad

Ekblad left Florida's 5-1 win on Saturday during the first period after suffering what appeared to be a leg injury. Given his history, there was some concern, so that it'll only be a couple weeks is a good sign.

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Bad news for Ottawa forward Josh Norris:

Norris missed almost the entire 2022-23 season due to shoulder surgery, and even missed some time at the beginning of the 2023-24 season as well. That it's his third shoulder surgery at the age of 24 is not ideal, but Taylor Hall had shoulder issues early in his career and went on to win a Hart Trophy, so who knows. Had Norris not been quite right this season, it would help explain why a lot of his numbers, both on and below the surface, suffered.

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Tyler Toffoli was on Winnipeg's top power play in practice on Monday and he should stay there until Gabriel Vilardi returns. Vilardi's status, meanwhile, does not look great:

Going from "he'll miss both games this weekend" to "we hope he can skate" is never a positive sign. Let's hope for a quick recovery.

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New York took a 3-1 win at home to New Jersey on Monday night. Mika Zibanejad scored his second even strength goal since Christmas, registering seven total shots, a hit, and a block, while Erik Gustafsson and Vincent Trocheck (EN) scored the other two. Adam Fox ended up playing after being a game-tome decision and had a shot, five blocks, and a couple PIMs.

Simon Nemec scored his third goal of the year and that was the only puck to get past Jonathan Quick, who saved 20 of 21 shots.

Matt Rempe hit Jonas Siegenthaler with a pretty bad chicken wing, resulting in a five-minute major and being tossed from the game. Siegenthaler left the game and did not return.

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Thanks to a 5-1 loss to St. Louis on Monday night, Boston now has won just seven of 18 games since the All-Star break. Kasperi Kapanen had a goal and two assists while Brandon Saad each had a goal and a helper. Colton Parayko had an assist, a block, and five hits in the victory.

Robert Thomas scored a power play goal and finished the game with that lone shot and a hit. That was Thomas's 21st goal of the season, setting a career-high. He needs one more power play goal to get to six, which would also be a career-high. He is also still over two shots per game on the season so while he's not becoming an elite scorer, there are more contributions to those categories which is a big development for his fantasy value.

Joel Hofer stopped 36 of 37 shots faced for the win while Jeremy Swayman allowed four goals on 21 shots.

David Pastrnak scored Boston's lone goal on six shots.

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There were a pair of 3-0 shutouts last night as Winnipeg and Los Angeles beat Washington and the New York Islanders, respectively. Connor Hellebuyck stopped all 23 shots he faced in his win over the Capitals while Dave Rittich held the Islanders goalless on 26 shots. For all the consternation over Rittich's performance since taking some starts from Cam Talbot, the former now has a .919 save percentage in 19 appearances. Fantasy managers are certainly pleased, at any rate.

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Alex Iafallo, Kyle Connor, and Neal Pionk scored for the Jets. Connor is now up to 27 goals in 48 games this season, and that works out to a 46-goal/82-game pace. I certainly wouldn't have guessed that if someone asked me.

Toffoli skated on the second line with Sean Monahan with Nikolaj Ehlers moving to the top line in place of Gabriel Vilardi/Vladislav Namestnikov.

Trevor Moore had a goal and an assist for Los Angeles, registering seven shots, two PIMs, and there hits in a great fantasy night. Adrian Kempe returned to action to score once with four shots, two blocks, two PIMs, and four hits while Phillip Danault scored the final goal.

Mikey Anderson also returned for Los Angeles and skated 19 minutes. Los Angeles dressed seven defencemen and Jordan Spence played under nine minutes with Jacob Moverare finishing at 7:25.

An interesting wrinkle in Los Angeles's deployment of late, perhaps related to injuries or perhaps not: their top-6 forwards are all skating between 18:27 and 20:24 per game over their last five games. That is heavy usage for six forwards; the team's first half of the season saw one attacker (Anze Kopitar) over 19 minutes, and only he and Kempe were over 17:45. It seems the team is going to rely heavily on those players for now (and maybe from here on out).

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The Trade Deadline has come and gone and there are a little over five weeks left in the regular season. Despite ~14 teams having nothing left to play for, there are always players and roles to keep an eye on down the stretch. This is when younger players can make a good final impression on their coaches, and when coaches can give different players new roles with the 2024-25 season in mind.

To that end, here are some players and roles from the non-playoff teams I'm keeping an eye on down the stretch. As always, data from Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools, unless otherwise indicated, as of Monday afternoon.

Ottawa's Power Play

There are a lot of issues with Ottawa from top to bottom, but of all things to take a step back in 2023-24, the power play is a bit of a surprise. This is a team that was 20th by goals/60 with the man advantage in 2021-22 and that rose to 8th in 2022-23. Thus far in 2023-24, they are 27th by goals/60 and have one fewer PP goal than Seattle. Tim Stützle leads the team with 14 power play points, pacing for 18-19 PPPs one season removed from posting 28 such points.

The team's 27th-ranked shooting percentage could indicate some positive power play regression, but they're also 19th by shots/60 and 20th by expected goals/60. Nearly everything – shots, expected goals, actual goals – has declined since Christmas under Jacques Martin's tutelage.

High-end power play production is crucial to high-end fantasy performance outside those with exceptional peripheral production (like Brady Tkachuk). It would be nice to see some improvements down the stretch, but given the injuries and the downturn under Martin, it might be too much to ask. It will make valuing Senators skaters for next season in fantasy that much more interesting.  

Montreal's Second Line

The recent second-line duo of Joshua Roy and Alex Newhook has performed very well in their time together: Montreal has a 57.7% expected goal share and 52.6% actual goal share at 5-on-5 with that duo on the ice in nearly 125 minutes together. Newhook has eight points in 14 games, which isn't high-end or anything, but is fine production for a team that is fighting for a spot in the Draft Lottery. He has assumed Sean Monahan's role on the top power play unit and that's good news for next season.

Whether the second line duo, with Joel Armia, can keep this up for another five weeks is another matter entirely. Kirby Dach has been out since the second game of the season and though he's been skating, whether he'll return before the end of the regular season is uncertain. Having Newhook and Roy being able to establish themselves without Dach would be a big boost for the team's outlook next season, and it would make Newhook an interesting fantasy option in September drafts. A top PP role with productive second line minutes is fantasy-viable, and he does have 31 hits in 37 games with the Canadiens, so there's some banger value as well.  

Kirill Marchenko's Slump

Marchenko was a healthy scratch for one of Columbus's games last week and he has just four goals and 11 points in his last 30 games. He has added that playmaking dimension fantasy managers were hoping for after his low-assist rookie season, but the goal-scoring slump might keep him from reaching 20 tallies on the campaign. A lot of this current slump is related to shooting percentage – 5.6% in those 30 games – but even double that number would mean 15 points in 30 games, and a 0.5 points/game pace is not what we're looking for.

One key for Marchenko will be keeping an eye on the Columbus power play. They have often been using two defencemen on PP1, and with Boone Jenner and Johnny Gaudreau fixtures of that quintet, it only leaves one forward spot. Right now, that spot is going to Alex Nylander, but that doesn't mean he'll hold it for the next five weeks. There is also the potential return of Adam Fantilli to contend with. Seeing Marchenko work his way back up to the top PP unit, regardless of what he does at 5-on-5, would be a good sign heading into next season.  

Filip Zadina's Production

Since his four-point game four weeks ago, Zadina has three goals in 10 games with 23 shots on target. That isn't elite or anything, but it is the most of any Sharks forward still on the roster (Anthony Duclair had four). Zadina also leads the team in shot attempts/60 and shots/60 at 5-on-5 in that span, so despite having zero assists in those 10 appearances, he's certainly looking for the back of the net, if not his teammates.

San Jose is not a good environment to show out offensively, but if Zadina can keep firing the puck as he has been for the next month or so, he could work himself into a top-6/top power play role in 2024-25. There are a lot of bridges to cross between ow and then, though.  

Michael Kesselring's Performance

When Arizona traded both Shayne Gostisbehere and Jakob Chychrun last season, it took two good puck-moving blue liners out of the lineup. The Coyotes added Sean Durzi in the offseason -and he's the unquestioned number-1 for the team now – but there is a lot of upheaval coming: per CapFriendly, every Arizona defenceman currently on the roster is a free agent – either restricted or unrestricted – once this season ends. Over his last nine games, Kesselring has averaged 17:50 per night, a big increase from the 14:13 before that. With Matt Dumba and Troy Stecher gone, Kesselring should be an every-night player, and that gives him a chance to prove himself for 2024-25.

There is potential here. Over the last two seasons, he has 1.24 points/60 at 5-on-5, which is the same rate as Thomas Harley and higher than Rasmus Dahlin. His 60-minute shot attempt rate is in the 73rd percentile and his hit rate is the 76th percentile. It is very doubtful he will keep up that point rate, but a drop there can also be partially offset by more ice time, and additional ice time would help his peripherals along as well. Just 18 minutes a game could easily mean 5 goals, 20 assists, 100 shots, and over 200 hits+blocks. Not elite, but not bad for depth in banger formats. Let's see what happens over the next five weeks.

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