Frozen Tools Forensics: Playoff Push

Chris Kane

2024-03-15

It is that time of year again. If you are still in competitive matchups, congrats. We don't really have the luxury of looking long term anymore. For most folks, it is win or go home at this point. When the timeline is one week a simple hot streak can make or break the matchup. Given that it is time to take a look at recent production streaks. Who is hot that you should add, and who is cold that you should be dropping.

To set up this article I ran a Percent Rostered Report for the last two weeks. Essentially, I am looking for players that are low rostered and doing well (for the first table) and then highly rostered but very cold (for our second table). Once I had that report in hand, I exported it to rearrange some columns and to add a points per game number for easier sorting. For each table I have included player info and then their stats over the last 14 days (the report was run on March 14 so will not include Thursday night games). For the purposes of this article, I am using Fantrax Rostered percent. Yahoo rostered numbers are usually a little less relatable to competitive leagues as they tend to have more public or inactive leagues and teams.

So first up, which players are rostered in less than 50 percent of Fantrax leagues and are actually doing well right now?

NamePosTeamGPPTSPTS/GSOGTOIPPTOIFantrax Rostered %
ANTHONY DUCLAIRRT.B5102.001618:203:1535
KYLE PALMIERIRNYI671.171517:012:3933
MIKAEL GRANLUNDCS.J781.141322:193:5438
PHILIPP KURASHEVRCHI781.141319:444:2430
FABIAN ZETTERLUNDRS.J771.001920:373:3524

The caveat I will give for all of these players is that you need to take a look at their schedules. Adding a streaking free agent will do you no good if you don't have space in your roster to get them in any games. It is particularly important in these small sample sizes.

First up Anthony Duclair. He is clearly red hot. He has also changed teams and situations so we need to take some of this with a grain of salt. Duclair had eight points in his final four games in San Jose. As of this writing we only have one game in Tampa and he put up a goal and assist. In San Jose he was getting 18-21 minutes of total time on ice and over three minutes of top power-play time (at least two-thirds of the available time). During his first game in Tampa, he was getting about a third of the power opportunity, and played about 14 minutes overall with the second line. It isn't a completely terrible place as Steven Stamkos was practicing on the line with Duclair and Anthony Cirelli (as of March 13), but the drop in overall ice time won't be good for him overall. Long story short, two points per game won't continue (and wouldn't have). Ondrej Palat was able to put up a 50ish point pace when he was seeing similar deployment in past seasons. That feels like a baseline, but perhaps he can keep up the post trade bump for a couple of more games.

There isn't a lot to say about Kyle Palmieri. He has been relevant in surges throughout this season, and seems to be doing it again. He has still been getting over 50 percent of the team's power-play more often than not and playing on a second line. As with other points during the season, he is worth rostering on a hot streak, but fair warning, it could stop at any time.

I am going to put Mikael Granlund and Fabian Zetterlund in sort of the same boat. That boat is, count me interested. They are getting big deployment on an empty San Jose roster. Both are averaging over 20 minutes a night in total and over three and a half minutes of power-play time. Add to that the fact that they are on a roll? Great news. Granlund has been good through much of the season so is kind of a shoe-in in my opinion.

That leaves Philipp Kurashev. Like with Palmieri and Granlund, there have been times over the past season where Kurashev was worth rostering and now is one of those times. He has been back on a line with a cooking Connor Bedard and as long as those things are true, Bedard's running mates are worth a look.

And now on to the flip side – some highly rostered players who are not performing well at all.

NamePosTeamGPPTSPTS/GSOGTOIPPTOIFantrax Rostered %
MIKA ZIBANEJADCNYR610.171721:573:4699
ALEX DEBRINCATLDET610.171418:323:0798
SIDNEY CROSBYCPIT820.252719:223:00100
PAVEL BUCHNEVICHCSTL820.251919:143:0392
ALEX TUCHRBUF720.292119:472:0291
CLAUDE GIROUXROTT620.33521:263:0094
PATRICK KANERDET620.331619:223:0592

I am going to sort this group into two categories. The first is players who I think are just too good to drop even if they are not performing well. That is the smaller group of Mika Zibanejad and Sidney Crosby. The Penguins are falling apart, but Crosby has just been too good for too long for me to bet against him. Zibanejad hasn't had the best season, and it is certainly possible that over the next week one of those free agents above will perform better than him, but in 95 weeks out of 100 I am taking Zibanejad.

The next group has some question marks. I would consider dropping any of these players for an emergency stream. It is a tougher call to straight up drop any of these guys for a free agent, but if in your next matchup these players are going to be on your bench anyway for games I would seriously consider moving on.

Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane have really fallen off the wagon since Dylan Larkin was injured. Lines have been shuffled in Detroit several times also. They seem to be trying something of a top nine but without nine strong players. This just hurts everyone, but I am particularly low on DeBrincat as he has been cold for other stretches this season as well.

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Claude Giroux, Pavel Buchnevich and Alex Tuch are still getting decent deployment on their teams, but have been very inconsistent all season. Tuch is still shooting, but he has only strung together points in three consecutive games twice. It is usually a one and done situation. For Buchnevich, if he isn't scoring, he isn't getting points. At least recently. His shot rates are okay, but nothing special. Giroux has been very streaky this season but is currently mired in his coldest period to date. He typically hasn't been held off the score sheet for more than three games at a time, but that is exactly what has happened twice over his last eight games. All three are good players, but if our time frame is the next week, they really might not help you.

That is all for this week.

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