Ramblings: Philly’s Frosty Scratch of Couturier; Peripherals in New Places; Hat-Tricks from Rantanen & Pastrnak (Mar 20)

Alexander MacLean

2024-03-20

The Flyers made Sean Couturier a healthy scratch just a month after naming him captain, and they went out and had a quick start against the Leafs, scoring 19 seconds in before holding on for the 4-3 win.

Couturier has struggled of late, and the drop-off stated back in December when he sustained a minor – but apparently nagging – injury. He only played 11 minutes in the previous game, a 6-5 loss to the Bruins. For fantasy purposes, his FOW, Hit, and Shot totals have been solid, but the actually production has been sorely lacking.

We'll see if the scratch can re-light the spark, but the Flyers do have the depth to minimize his role the rest of the way if things don't turn around. Without Couturier in the lineup, Morgan Frost continued to show well, putting up two points to bring him to six in his last four, and a 52-point-pace overall. He has filled in well as a top-line centre when needed this year, and just recently passed his breakout threshold. The buy-in window on him as a consistent 50+ point player is closing fast.

As a good sign for Toronto in the loss though, John Tavares had three points, that's five points in his last two games for a team that is currently really missing Mitch Marner's scoring.

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In one of my leagues, I am in a quarterfinals matchup against the owner of Adrian Kempe, who I think has to be one of the most underrated pieces in fantasy hockey right now. It's noteworthy because Kempe's peripherals have seen an uptick lately, and those could be a few of the swing categories in the matchup. Kempe is already over 200 shots on the year, having scored on 10% of them, which is a mark that should rise a little by the end of the year, and finish higher most seasons through the rest of his 20s. Kempe also adds 34 assists, 17 PPPs, and nearly 100 hits. In his four games prior to March 19th, he recorded four hits in three of them, and 18 total shots.

Looking at my own roster, there is a fairly comparable player in Owen Tippett, who has three more games remaining to Kempe's two, and tops him in both the Hit and Shot columns. Tippett hasn't quite reached Kempe's scoring heights yet, but the recent hot streak with six points in his last four games, including last night's two points.

Another fun stat from Tippett: he has more games with 10 shots this year than games with zero.

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Noah Hanifin has seen an uptick thus far for the Golden Knights. In his first five games with Vegas, he racked up four points, 11 shots, six Hits, five Blocks, and a plus-two rating. It's not fantastic, but it's better than his rates in Calgary in every column except the Blocks (which does track as Vegas just has the puck more, and Hanifin is seeing slightly less ice time with Vegas.

On another Vegas note, despite them sitting very close to the playoff bubble, we could see some load-management cropping up with the Golden Knights. Adjust as necessary.

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Hanifin's scoring has gone up lately, and with the news from Nashville that Jeremy Lauzon – he who leads the NHL in hits with a whopping 327 – is out week-to-week with a lower body injury, maybe you're looking for an add to boost your peripheral stats. May I propose Matt Dumba as the new name for you, available in over 80% of Yahoo and Fantrax leagues. His trade to Tampa has really amped up his peripheral production. Take advantage of the new-team boost before Dumba's adrenaline is all used up. He has 21 PIMs, 10 Hits, and five Blocks through three games with his new team.

Anthony Duclair is similarly enjoying the Sunshine State, with five points in his first four games while lining up alongside Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli (this is after posting eight points in his final four games with San Jose). Jump on that train while you can, but keep in mind that Tampa only plays two games next week.   

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Alex Holtz is getting another try on a top-six line with Jack Hughes. It may not stick for a long time, but he could be worth streaming for a few days or weeks as the Devils don't have much else to play for anyways. He was still on the second power play though, so overall his minutes were still down, but he made the most of it this time with a goal on two shots.

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It's again almost time for Rick Roos' monthly mailbag, and he is looking to take a few more questions. Whether it is something related to finishing your fantasy season strong, an outlook on what to expect in the offseason, or projections for who might be a better keeper/draft option next year, no one dives deeper into these questions than Rick. You can send him a question either by private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

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David Pastrnak scored another three goals for the Bruins as they ran over the Senators yesterday. He's up to a 116-point pace, and hasn't missed playing with Patrice Bergeron at all. Surprisingly, Pastrnak is taking less offensive zone faceoffs, doesn't have any red-flags with his underlying metrics, and his scoring surge is actually being led by a large uptick in assists.

Aside from the bit about losing his Hall-of-Fame centre, it feels like I can copy-paste Pastrnak's summary for Mikko Rantanen as well. The 27-year-old scored a hat-trick last night, has seen his assist levels rise this year with the goal scoring dropping back down a little, and is on pace to score over 110 points on the season.

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I had them ranked eighth and ninth respectively on my pre-season draft board, and I could see them fighting for the last inch again next year for who to rank ahead.

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An interesting note from Nashville:

I hadn't noted lately that Filip Forsberg hasn't been practicing recently, and to note that he hasn't been at practice in a month suggests an injury. However, he is still playing every game, and spectacularly he is on a crazy hot streak of 19 points in his last 12 games.

The most under-the-radar trade deadline acquisition in my mind was Jason Zucker, who scored one of Nashville's eight goals last night. His hit rate has risen with the Predators as well, and it feels like the stats keeper for the Predators is a little trigger-happy when recording hits, so for those of you missing the recent version of Zucker that put up 200 hits in a season, we may see him pace for that the rest of the way this year.

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Zach Werenski really needed a mostly-healthy season this year, and despite missing most of the month of January, he still stands to finish this season with his highest games played number since 2018-19. He is also currently tracking for this to be the highest output of his career, threatening to break the 50-point mark for the first time, and pace for over 60. All this despite the lowest shooting percentage in his career. His shot rate is down a smidge from the last couple of years, but his block rate is way up. All to say, I think he is due a big year again next year (as always, health depending).

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Since being traded to the New Jersey Devils, Jake Allen has put up three fantastic games against three high-level offences in Dallas, Vegas, and Pittsburgh, not allowing more than two goals against in any of those games. He could be someone that sways some matchups the rest of the way as his value skyrocketed with the trade (and subsequent move of Vitek Vanecek). Allen is someone that I think I will own a few stocks in to start next season too.

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The later into the season that Mark Scheifele keeps up this scoring pace, the more stand last year's numbers look. He had a steep drop off in assists last year after lining up most of the year to Cole Perfetti and an aging Blake Wheeler, but it has rebounded to his usual numbers this year. As long as he is playing with at least one of Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor for the foreseeable future, then the 80-point seasons should continue to roll in.

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Patrick Kane scored the OT winner for the Red Wings last night as they try to keep pace in for one of the last playoff spots in the East. It was Kane's third point of the night (the first two being assists on Lucas Raymond goals), and it brings him up to seven points in his past five games, as well as the point-per-game mark overall. Kane's ice time is slowly climbing, and it seems likely that his numbers should rise to close out the season rather than fall. The late start, and the slow ramp up to full speed really seems to be helping him. I was concerned that he would be as ineffective as Nicklas Backstrom after a similar surgery, but luckily for hockey fans that enjoy watching skilled players play, that doesn't appear to be the case.

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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.  

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 21 - 13:12 NSH vs L.A
Dec 21 - 16:12 EDM vs S.J
Dec 21 - 16:12 CGY vs CHI
Dec 21 - 19:12 MTL vs DET
Dec 21 - 19:12 TOR vs NYI
Dec 21 - 19:12 PHI vs CBJ
Dec 21 - 19:12 BOS vs BUF
Dec 21 - 19:12 WPG vs MIN
Dec 21 - 19:12 N.J vs PIT
Dec 21 - 22:12 VAN vs OTT
Dec 21 - 22:12 VGK vs SEA

Starting Goalies

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JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA
BRYAN RUST PIT
ROSS COLTON COL

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MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
MATT MURRAY TOR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
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LINE COMBOS

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20.8 BRAYDEN SCHENN JORDAN KYROU DYLAN HOLLOWAY
19.1 ROBERT THOMAS JAKE NEIGHBOURS PAVEL BUCHNEVICH
16.0 ALEXANDRE TEXIER OSKAR SUNDQVIST ZACK BOLDUC

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