Ramblings: Nedeljkovic on a Roll, Vilardi Hat Trick, Watch for Collin Graf (Apr 5)

Ian Gooding

2024-04-05

You should probably wait to fill out your playoff bracket or playoff pool, particularly for the Eastern Conference. With the way the Flyers, Red Wings, Capitals, Islanders, or Penguins have played at times this season, how confident are you that one of them can advance past the first round? There appears to be a clear separation between the top six East teams points-wise and this pack of mushy middle teams (which could also include the Sabres and Devils, who appear to be out of time). That being said, the Stanley Cup Playoffs have had their share of Cinderella teams through the years, so who knows.

The Penguins kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 4-1 win over Washington on Thursday. Lars Eller and Reilly Smith led the Pens with two points each.

If you've been streaming goalies, hopefully you've landed on Alex Nedeljkovic. He stopped 30 of 31 shots he faced, giving him five wins and five quality starts over his last six games. Over that span (since March 26), Nedeljkovic has a 1.97 GAA and .934 SV%. Ned even started both games of a back-to-back on Monday and Tuesday. The Penguins are riding the hot hand in net and so should you (17% Yahoo/26% Fantrax).  

Meanwhile, Tristan Jarry hasn't played since March 26, having not won or earned a quality start in his last four games. His last win and quality start was on March 14, making him droppable in single-season leagues at this point. Jarry is locked up for another four seasons while Nedeljkovic is a free agent after this season, so odds are that Jarry is back in the starter's crease next season in spite of this late-season disappearance.

Aaron Ekblad is expected to miss the rest of the regular season, although Paul Maurice said he is quite confident that Ekblad will be ready for Game 1 of the playoffs. Ekblad has already battled injury this season and did not make his season debut until mid-November due to injuries from the playoffs. That being said, Ekblad has massively underperformed when in the lineup this season with just 18 points in 51 games. His peripheral stats like hits and blocks were at or above career averages, but his shots were down to less than two per game after averaging close to three per game the past few seasons.

The Panthers were just fine without Ekblad. Sergei Bobrovsky made 30 saves in shutting out the Senators 6-0, while Matthew Tkachuk led Florida with three points. The Panthers have already clinched a playoff spot, so it's all about ensuring that Ekblad is healthy when the playoffs start. In the meantime, you can safely drop him from your single-season fantasy team if you are still competing for a title.

Sam Reinhart scored his 53rd goal of the season, passing Zach Hyman for second place in goals. Reinhart is also one point shy of 90 while leading the league with 27 power-play goals (the next highest PPG total is 19). I don't think Reinhart deserves $10 million per season on the open market if you consider his overall career production, but the recency effect combined with benefitting from a near-25.0 SH% means that he might just cash in with that.  

For the Senators, Joonas Korpisalo was pulled after allowing four goals on 17 shots. Korpisalo seemed like a risky play against the Panthers even without Ekblad and Carter Verhaeghe, so hopefully you didn't start him.

In the Blue Jackets' 4-2 loss to the Islanders, Daniil Tarasov left the game with an upper-body injury after a collision in front of his net. Elvis Merzlikins was already out with a lower-body injury, which meant that third-string Jet Greaves entered the game in relief. Greaves performed admirably, stopping 24 of 25 shots he faced. You probably shouldn't rely on any Jackets goalie during the fantasy playoffs, but Greaves might be the guy playing out the string if you must.

This might be the highlight of the year for the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The Winnipeg Jets have officially clinched a playoff spot with a 5-2 win over Calgary, officially eliminating the Flames from making the playoffs in the process.

Gabriel Vilardi finished the game with a hat trick, also taking nine shots. Vilardi had not registered a point in his previous four games, so it probably didn't seem like you were missing a golden opportunity if you passed on him on your waiver wire. In fact, if you factor in the time that he missed with an enlarged spleen, Vilardi had not registered a point since February 25. He's on what seems like the Jets' top line with Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers, so he seems like a decent add. Vilardi is just 20 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues.  

In the Lightning's 7-4 win over Montreal, Steven Stamkos and Nick Paul each scored a pair of goals. Stamkos now has five goals over his last four games. Paul now has goals in back-to-back games with at least three shots in both games. Paul also logged 21 minutes in Thursday's contest. He's also playing on Tampa's top power play, with nine of his 22 goals this season on the power play. The 20-goal season is also the first of his career. At just 12 percent rostered in Yahoo and 34 percent rostered in Fantrax, Paul is a decent waiver-wire option.

Nikita Kucherov recorded three points, pushing his league-leading total to 133 points. Kucherov leads Nathan MacKinnon by three points and Connor McDavid by seven points in the Art Ross race.

Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli both left the game with injuries. Head coach Jon Cooper said that the two were "dinged up" during the game and removed as a precaution.

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In the loss, Juraj Slafkovsky scored a goal and added an assist while logging 22 minutes. That gives him 13 points over his last 12 games. Slafkovsky has also taken 17 shots over his last three games, an average of nearly six per game. He appears projected to be a sleeper pick in next season's drafts, and he still seems to be a solid stream this season (23 percent rostered in Yahoo).

Kaiden Guhle has six points over his last five games, but he left Thursday's game with an upper-body injury.

MacKinnon himself registered a goal and two assists on Thursday, while Jonathan Drouin scored two goals and an assist in the Avalanche's 5-2 win over Minnesota. Drouin has made a case as a comeback player of the year, as his 51 points is just two shy of his career high of 53 (set two different times). Although he may never reach the potential he had as a third overall pick in 2013, the now 29-year-old Drouin has been a serviceable fantasy option this season. More recently, Drouin has posted multiple points in five of his last eight games. As hoped, he has also reconnected with former junior teammate MacKinnon as a linemate for much of the season.

Justus Annunen also provided a strong spot start for those who needed it, stopping 44 of 46 shots to earn a win.

Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist each earned three points in the Predators' 6-3 win over St. Louis. Forsberg is scorching hot with 20 points over his last 11 games, while already setting career highs in goals (43), points (87), and shots (313). Only four players have more shots than Forsberg this season. If you want to know why Nashville seems to be punching above its weight in both scoring and the overall standings, it starts with Forsberg.

Nyquist now has three assists, cementing the first 70-point season of his career. Who had Nyquist as a potential sleeper this season after signing with the Predators? Certainly not me. He's receiving top-line and power-play minutes he likely wouldn't receive elsewhere and making good on the opportunity. I'd bet the under on him reaching 70 points again next season, as I don't like the fact that he averages less than two shots per game. Yet we shouldn't be fading Nyquist yet, even though he is now 34 years old.

There have been several NCAA free agent signings this week. Collin Graf of the Quinnipiac Bobcats, who might be the most notable undrafted NCAA player, has signed a three-year contract with San Jose with a cap hit of $941,667 per season. Graf was part of the Quinnipiac lineup that won the 2022-23 NCAA national championship, scoring at well over a point per game during his two seasons there (108 points in 75 games). He was also a Hobey Baker Top 10 finalist both seasons.

With the Sharks in complete rebuild mode, Graf appears ready to join their lineup before the end of the season and could even assume an important role. A reason that he wasn't drafted could be his size. Although he's now 6-1 and 195 pounds at 21 years of age, Graf was 5-8 and 145 pounds when he was 17 years old. The Sharks don't really have any single-season fantasy-relevant players beyond Mikael Granlund and Fabian Zetterlund at the moment, so Graf could be worth keeping an eye on immediately.

Graf wasn't in San Jose's lineup in Thursday's late game with LA, but he will have two more opportunities to make his Sharks debut this weekend on Saturday and Sunday.

You can find writeups of the most prominent U.S. College Free Agents in the Midseason Guide. A few of these players have since been signed, including Jacob Quillan with Toronto, Cooper Black with Florida, and Dylan Wendt with New Jersey. These free agents by and large don't make a major impact in fantasy leagues, but there are a few that could eventually earn regular NHL spots. They're a roll of the dice for teams looking to bolster their prospect base, generally as late bloomers that were overlooked when they were draft-eligible.

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