Ramblings: Hughes and Xhekaj Done; McDavid Resting; Slaf and Stamkos Score Hat-Tricks & More (Apr 10)
Alexander MacLean
2024-04-10
Jack Hughes missed last night's game, and it's now confirmed that he's done for the season. He finishes the campaign with 74 points in 62 games, which is just shy of a 100-point-pace. That's his third season in a row pacing between 94 and 104 points, which would seem to be his production wheelhouse.
However, Hughes began the season with 17 points in seven games, and 19 in nine games (plus three minutes of game 10) before his first injury absence. He then put up 24 points in 22 games before he was injured again, and scored 29 points in his last 30 game stretch. The scoring dipped (albeit mildly) with each successive injury, and you do have to wonder if he wasn't 100% after returning from his first absence.
He should pace for around 100 points again next year (hopefully on a playoff team with stable goaltending this time) but the games missed from Hughes may continue to be an issue for another few seasons. The star players whose games are less based on power do tend to figure out how to remain healthier as time goes on though. I remember acquiring Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Aleksander Barkov for cheaper than they should have been in their early 20s because they had a few injury plagued seasons, and those deals turned out to be steals.
With New Jersey out of the playoff hunt now, shutting him down regardless makes sense at this point. Shane Bowers and Alex Holtz may be worth a look as streamers as the season closes out, with both seeing top-six deployment.
There's a good thread here on Hughes' injury and what his recovery might look like.
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Arber Xhekaj is also done for the season, undergoing shoulder surgery – his second one in under a year, and this one on the second shoulder. Hopefully the Wifi can come back healthy and stay that way. He adds a skillset to the Habs' defence core that is tough to replace. He was near three hits per game and two PIMs per game, which is also very tough to replace as a fantasy manager.
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Oh, and I guess on that note I should also mention that some guy named Connor McDavid is now day-to-day with a lower body injury. Hopefully this is just a bit of load management approaching the playoffs, and sitting at 99 assists they don't have to play him every game the rest of the way to likely hit the century mark. That being said, that century mark for assists is a big deal, and McDavid is going to want to hit that milestone, so unless this injury is a bigger-deal, he should be back very soon.
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McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers do have six games remaining (with five on off nights) at this point compared to the three or four games remaining for most of the league, so there is definitely a volume cushion there. For fantasy, it makes Dylan Holloway (recalled yesterday) and other middle-of-the-lineup players much more appealing as streamers. That includes two back to backs, which means at least two games from Calvin Pickard.
Chicago and Vegas each have five off-night games remaining, while Arizona and St. Louis also have all four of their remaining games occurring on off-nights. With busy nights on Thursday and Saturday, these are things worth looking at to optimize your games played numbers through the weekend.
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I have had Juraj Slafkovsky on my list to talk about for a few weeks now, and I keep either forgetting him, or running out of space or effort to put him into the Ramblings that week. Well, he finally got tired of being overlooked by me, and scored a hat trick to bring him within spitting distance of a 50-point season. He has taken huge steps in his development, and addressed a lot of the shortfalls that were the main issues with his game around his rookie season.
Slaf is up to 2.5 shots per game, and at 19 minutes of ice time in the last quarter of the season. He's at 17 points in those 17 games this quarter, and has improved consistently as the season has gone on. It won't be until the beginning of season four that Slafkovsky reaches his breakout threshold, and while he may not be a 100-point threat, he could be a Rick Nash type player who is a dominant force but mostly around a point-per-game pace.
Brendan Gallagher and Jordan Harris also notched three points for the Habs who won handily against the Flyers. The game finished 9-3 with Samuel Ersson giving up five goals on 17 shots while Ivan Fedotov game up four goals on 14 shots. Fedotov hasn't had the smoothest transition, but it's tough to read into it too far until he has more North American experience under his belt, and can spend a summer training and preparing specifically for the NHL.
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Steven Stamkos also netted a hat trick, adding an assist in only 16 minutes of ice time, to push himself over the point-per-game mark for what would be the seventh time in the last eight seasons. Two more points in his remaining four games will seal that. The 34-year-old has seen his ice time drop a little, his plus-minus drop a lot, and his Corsi numbers are the lowest they have ever been. The decline is slow, but it's here. I wouldn't be confident expecting more than 70 points next year, so be careful with him in the offseason and at the draft table.
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Jumping back to the 2022 draft picks, the player who many thought was going to go first overall, Shane Wright, scored again last night to bring him up to five points in his last four games, with 10 shots over that stretch despite still playing less than 16 minutes per game. As much as you can be a post-hype sleeper as a fourth-overall pick from two years ago, I think that's somehow the category that Wright is falling into in many cases in fantasy right now. Take the chance on the recent run and the very long runway.
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Anthony Stolarz got the surprise start yesterday after Sergei Bobrovsky was seemingly confirmed earlier in the day, but apparently Paul Maurice is just saying it was a mistake on his part and he misspoke when confirming the starting goalies. Stolarz did post a shutout on only 24 shots but the Senators, so it wasn't exactly the most taxing start, and if there is anything nagging with Bob, it's possible Stolarz does get both halves of the back to back. Stolarz has been great this year for the Panthers, and certainly gives them lots to consider with Spencer Knight also waiting in the wings.
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Auston Matthews scored again last night to set the Cap-Era record for goals in a season with 66 (the most since Mario Lemieux in the 1990s), but you're tired of hearing about the Leafs already so we'll leave it at that.
Not to be out-done, Alex Ovechkin scored his 30th of the season to set the NHL record with 18 such seasons. The consistency is tailing off, but it still feels inevitable that he will beat Wayne Gretzky's goal scoring record.
Not to be forgotten, Nathan MacKinnon‘s second goal of last night’s game marked his 50th of the season. The MVP race this year is one I’m glad I don’t have to vote on and come up with a good answer for, there’s a great winning case for at least four players.
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This is your annual reminder of the Yahoo Roto Games Played glitch, where if you play just the right number of players to be left with one game at a given position (e.g. defence) then you can fill your entire set of defence roster slots the next day and still have all of those stats count, giving you a few extra games worth of stats/points. Word of caution though, try and get to this point ahead of the last game or two of the season, as players often sit out, and you miss out on optimizing your numbers if you wait too long.
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Carolina has recently signed Scott Morrow, Gleb Trikozov, and Bradly Nadeau to their entry level deals. For Trikozov this means crossing the pond and playing in North America next year, while Morrow and Nadeau may get a game or two before season's end. All three are fantasy relevant in dynasty leagues, and it will be nice to see them all playing closer to meaningful games.
In the meantime, the Hurricanes aren't in any rush to make lineup changes, beating the Bruins 4-1 while giving Frederik Andersen the full night off. Everyone on their roster played between 11:10 and 20:10 in ice time, which is extremely balanced, especially on defence where any top pair often plays a lot more. Make of that what you will.
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Sean Couturier returned to the lineup for the first time since April 1st, but regardless of him the entire team seems broken in their slump that is taking one of the most surprising teams and knocking them immediately out of the playoff race. Couturier went minus-two with three shots and 11 faceoff wins last night.
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Gabe Vilardi continues to be the best part of Winnipeg's powerplay. He could be a great later-round grab in playoff pools, and would be an excellent guy to find a way to get onto your roster for next season.
Nashville clinched a playoff spot despite the highlight goal against and the Jets winning the game in overtime.
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See you next Wednesday. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.