Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

***

Now that the regular seasons have concluded for the three leagues in the Canadian Hockey League (WHL, OHL, QMJHL), we can officially crown the WHL's Jagger Firkus (SEA) the CHL scoring leader for 2023-24 with 126 points in only 63 games.

Here is the rest of the top 20 with points per game rates listed in bold:

Jagger Firkus (SEA, WHL, 19): 126 in 63, 2.00

Zack Funk (Unsigned, WHL, 20): 123 in 68, 1.81

Riley Heidt (MIN, WHL, 18): 117 in 66, 1.77

David Goyette (SEA, OHL, 19): 117 in 68, 1.72

Berkly Catton (2024, WHL, 17): 116 in 68, 1.71

Andrew Cristall (WAS, WHL, 18): 111 in 62, 1.79

Anthony Romani (2024, OHL, 18): 111 in 68, 1.63

Conner Roulette (DAL, WHL, 20): 108 in 68, 1.59

Antonin Verreault (Unsigned, QMJHL, 19): 107 in 68, 1.57

Gabe Klassen (Unsigned, WHL, 20): 106 in 67, 1.58

Terik Parascak (2024, WHL, 17): 105 in 68, 1.54

Dalyn Wakely (Unsigned, OHL, 20): 104 in 66, 1.58

Quentin Musty (SJS, OHL, 18): 102 in 53, 1.93

Denver Barkey (PHI, OHL, 18): 102 in 64, 1.60

James Stefan (EDM, WHL, 20): 101 in 67, 1.51

Trevor Wong (Unsigned, WHL, 20): 101 in 68, 1.49

Conor Geekie (ARI, WHL, 19): 99 in 55, 1.80

Justin Gill (NYI, QMJHL, 20): 98 in 65, 1.51

Gavin McKenna (2025, WHL, 16): 97 in 61, 1.60

Ondrej Becher (2024, WHL, 19): 96 in 58, 1.66

Before sorting the CHL scoring leaders by points per game (minimum 20 games), pulling out insights, and zooming in on a few of these promising prospects, here are the CHL scoring leaders over the past 10 years—to better contextualize Firkus' achievement and production:

2023-24: Jagger Firkus (SEA, 19), 126 in 63, 2.00

2022-23: Connor Bedard (CHI, 17), 143 in 57, 2.51

2021-22: Wyatt Johnston (DAL, 18), 124 in 68, 1.82

2020-21: Cedric Desruisseaux* (N/A, 20), 78 in 40, 1.95

2019-20: Marco Rossi (MIN, 18), 120 in 56, 2.14

2018-19: Jason Robertson (DAL, 19), 117 in 62, 1.89

2017-18: Jason Halbgewachs (N/A, 20), 129 in 72, 1.79

2016-17: Sam Steel (ANA, 18), 131 in 66, 1.98

2015-16: Connor Garland (VAN, 19), 128 in 62, 2.10

2014-15: Dylan Strome (WAS, 17), 129 in 68, 1.90 & Conor Garland (VAN, 18), 129 in 67, 1.93

*Covid year, no OHL season, WHL season limited to 24 games

Just as many hits as misses on this list, I'm afraid: two superstars (Bedard, Robertson), a couple likely stars in the making (Johnston, Rossi), a couple solid scorers (Garland, Strome), and a few busts (Steel, Desruisseaux, Halbgewachs). This list also doesn't include many strong performances that finished just short of the leaderboard, notably by draft-eligible players like Connor McDavid, Alexis Lafreniere, Mitch Marner, and Alex DeBrincat who fell just short of the top spot as 17 year olds.

This mixed bag is a reminder that examining comparative CHL production is an inherently limited exercise. There is so much key information about prospect development and trajectory that is glossed over by looking exclusively at scoring numbers, and the gulf between 17- and 20-year-old prospects is immense, with every year of development being absolutely crucial. At 19, Firkus is on the older end of the spectrum here, but still, scoring 61 goals in 63 WHL games while adding a balanced 65 assists is no easy feat.

Here is how Firkus looks in the Hockey Prospecting model:

If that 14% Star Potential feels low for a CHL scoring champion, this is your weekly reminder that age has a dramatic impact on NHL outcomes. While that 47 NHL equivalency is past the "magic" mark of 40—which often predicts future pro-level success—Firkus hit it in his Draft+2 season, which is at least a year later than many NHL stars. If he had accomplished this last year instead of somewhat flatlining, it would be a different story.

His tracking data (courtesy of Mitch Brown's excellent Patreon) shows a balanced impact in all three zones but raises some interesting questions:

The first thing that jumps out to me here is his surprisingly low Offensive impact and particularly the low Expected Goals per 60 (xG/60). We are working with a fairly low sample size of four games, of course, so take it with a flake of sea salt, but how could a goal-per-game scorer have such a low xG rate? Although WHL shot totals are not publicly available, his Shots/60 rate is fairly low. That suggests that it is not a volume issue, where he is just slinging pucks on net every chance he gets like Carson Rehkopf (SEA) or Jonathan Lekkerimaki (VAN).

It does, however, suggest that the shots he did take in these four games generally had a low probability of success—even if he scored on them. That could indicate a tendency toward perimeter shooting, which is not ideal in terms of projecting future NHL success. Attacking the middle is a key habit for young goal scorers, and it would not be overly surprising that his elite shot let him regularly score on WHL goalies from distance. Elite Prospects rated his shot the best in the 2022 draft class with a score of 7 (where 5 is NHL average), and the write-up from the Dobber Prospects final ranking that year stated that "Firkus has the skill and the will to create his own scoring opportunities and a shot that is among the best in the class. It pops off his blade and he changes up the release point depending on the situation, adding a layer of deception to an already deadly shot."

Firkus' playmaking shines through in this tracking data more than I expected. While he may have work to do with attacking the middle himself, he scored very highly on Boards to Middle Plays/60 and fairly high on Slot Passes, suggesting that he was consistently feeding teammates in high-danger areas. Playing with Brayden Yager (PIT), Matthew Savoie (BUF), and Denton Mateychuk (CBJ) gave him several high-quality passing options.

He also did quite well in transition, which is a highly valued set of skills at the NHL level. The data shows that he is especially proficient at exiting the defensive zone with control before making an accurate cross-lane pass in neutral ice. While zone entries are less of a strength, he has demonstrated a higher level of defensive awareness than many high-level scorers in junior, and his balanced scoring and two-way play both bode very well for his NHL future.

While Firkus does not project as an elite scoring talent in the NHL, he is developing well and could realistically become a very useful top-six player in the mold of Oliver Bjorkstrand (SEA) or Conor Garland (VAN)—potentially with a bit more scoring pop than either if everything breaks right.

***

Returning to the top CHL scorers list, here is what the top 20 looks like when sorted by points per game (minimum 20 games):

Jordan Dumais (CBJ, QMJHL, 19): 47 in 21, 2.24

Matthew Savoie (BUF, WHL, 19): 71 in 34, 2.09

Jagger Firkus (SEA, WHL, 19): 126 in 63, 2.00

Quentin Musty (SJS, OHL, 18): 102 in 53, 1.93

Zack Funk (Unsigned, WHL, 20): 123 in 68, 1.81

Conor Geekie (ARI, WHL, 19): 99 in 55, 1.80

Andrew Cristall (WAS, WHL, 18): 111 in 62, 1.79

Easton Cowan (TOR, OHL, 18): 96 in 54, 1.78

Riley Heidt (MIN, WHL, 18): 117 in 66, 1.77

David Goyette (SEA, OHL, 19): 117 in 68, 1.72

Berkly Catton (2024, WHL, 17): 116 in 68, 1.71

Dalibor Dvorsky (STL, OHL, 18): 88 in 52, 1.69

Brayden Yager (PIT, WHL, 18): 95 in 57, 1.67

Ondrej Becher (2024, WHL, 19): 96 in 58, 1.66

Anthony Romani (2024, OHL, 18): 111 in 68, 1.63

Calum Ritchie (COL, OHL, 18): 80 in 50, 1.60

Denver Barkey (PHI, OHL, 18): 102 in 64, 1.60

Gavin McKenna (2025, WHL, 16): 97 in 61, 1.60

Conner Roulette (DAL, WHL, 20): 108 in 68, 1.59

Carson Rehkopf (SEA, OHL, 18): 95 in 60, 1.58

In terms of rate scoring, Jordan Dumais and Matthew Savoie rise to the top, with Firkus still rounding out the top three. Musty, who I featured here in late March, also makes a notable jump into the top five, as do Conor Geekie and Easton Cowan. All six of these players have a clear NHL future, as do most of the players on this list—except for the unsigned Zack Funk, overaged 2024 eligible Ondrej Becher and Anthony Romani, and the once-somewhat-promising Conner Roulette, who is still in junior at age 20.

***

Special shout out to Berkly Catton and Terik Parascak for cracking the CHL top 20 list as draft eligibles. Both should be very high picks in June. And an even more special shout out to the exceptional Gavin McKenna, who just put up nearly 100 points in 61 games at age 15/16. Incredible stuff, especially given that with his late December birthday he is not eligible to be drafted until 2026! Connor Bedard put up 100 points in 62 games in his Draft-1 year, for reference, but this is McKenna's Draft-2 campaign. Look for him to lead the WHL in scoring by a mile for the next couple years before taking a very realistic shot at first overall in 2026.

***

I want to end today's article by taking a quick look at Jordan Dumais. This guy has been one of the biggest head scratchers in the fantasy realm for years now: elite production and unreal hockey sense and passing ability but a small frame (5-9, 174 lbs) and slow feet (EP score: 4), which is a tough combination to overcome.

He is also playing in the less-competitive Quebec league, but he would presumably have finished neck-and-neck with Firkus for the CHL scoring title had he not had a string of bad luck this year. After all, he was edged out by Bedard last year by only three points at age 18 and finished in the top ten the year before that, breaking the century mark as a 17-year-old.

Jason Newland over at The Hockey News has done an excellent job summing up Dumais' frustrating year: "Dumais has had a bit of a wild ride this season. He was injured while playing for Columbus in the pre-season which caused him to miss some time for Halifax. He then needed a hernia surgery later in the year, and seemed to aggravate a hip injury while playing for Team Canada, now this."

"This" refers to a five-game suspension by his junior club for a Driving Under the Influence charge in Halifax. In other words, this year was a low-key disaster for Dumais, who went from almost making the NHL to having three surgeries and getting suspended.

While rate stats also have their issues, it is a positive sign that he actually increased his scoring pace this year after potting 140 points in 2022-23. Projecting Dumais' NHL future and valuing him accordingly in fantasy, however, remains as challenging as ever. For what it's worth, he currently sits 59th on Dobber's Top Forward Prospect ranking, just above Gabe Perreault (NYR), Dalibor Dvorsky (STL), and Quentin Musty (MIN).

While tracking data is not available for him this year, likely due to all the turbulence described above, here are his results from 2022-23:

His vision and passing ability are immediately evident. He is just constantly creating scoring opportunities and finding teammates in high-danger areas. He is also a serious weapon in transition, thriving with the puck on his stick as much as possible outside of the defensive zone. That ugly, red Defensive Plays/Corsi Against is not exactly surprising, given that his role with Halifax has been Pure Offense Always, but it is still concerning in terms of projecting his NHL role and success.

Dumais will clearly be a significant asset with the extra space afforded by the man advantage. I would expect him to start piling up power play points almost right out of the gates in 2024-25 with Columbus, assuming he makes the team and the coaching staff utilizes him in that way. While he is quite short in NHL terms, he actually has more bulk to him than a Conor Garland, for instance, and is built almost identically to Lightning star Brayden Point. The main obstacle for him to overcome, however, will likely not be his size so much as his skating. Both Garland and Point are excellent skaters, while that has historically been the weakest tool at Dumais' disposal.

There will remain a ton of question marks around this prospect until we have some concrete NHL data from him. At the moment, I would definitely rate him a "keep" in keeper and dynasty formats for his unique ability to pile up points and make everyone around him better. He has an extra offensive gear that most prospects just don't possess, and I like the fact that his game is built around vision and playmaking. A bit like a Cole Perfetti, those skills may just be good enough to overcome the fact that he is not a burner.

***

Thanks for reading! Follow me on X @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.