Ramblings: Nazar Scores in Debut; Hanifin vs. Theodore; Kuzmenko Lapping Lindholm (Apr 15)
Brennan Des
2024-04-15
On Sunday evening, the Ducks signed 20-year-old Cutter Gauthier to a three-year entry-level deal. Drafted fifth overall in 2022, Gauthier was traded from Philadelphia earlier in the season in exchange for Jamie Drysdale and a second-round draft pick. He led the NCAA with 38 goals in 41 games for Boston College and should make his NHL debut in Anaheim's final game of the season – scheduled on Thursday against Vegas.
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Jordan Kyrou's third-period goal held up as the game winner on Sunday. The 25-year-old forward has been hot lately, boasting six goals in his last six games. I've mentioned this before but there's a pretty stark contrast between Kyrou's output under former coach Craig Berube – who he seemed to have a strained relationship with – and his output under current coach Drew Bannister. After posting 17 points through 28 games under Berube (0.61 points/game), Kyrou has bounced back with 50 points in 53 games under Bannister (0.94 points/game).
Jared McCann's goal on Sunday was just his second in his last 17 outings. He has two more games to hit the 30-goal mark for a second-straight year (he had 40 last season).
Joel Hofer had a relatively quiet Sunday, stopping 19 of 20 shots for his 15th win of the season. The 23-year-old netminder has performed admirably in his first full year with the Blues. He'd spent most of his time in the AHL these last two years, entering the 23-24 campaign with just eight NHL games under his belt. Considering Hofer's lack of NHL experience, it's really encouraging to see him post a .914 SV% through 30 games this year. Only 13 goalies (min. 10 games played) have a better season save percentage than Hofer right now. He still has time to develop in a backup role for St. Louis, as Jordan Binnington is on contract three more years. Binnington may have a worse GAA and SV% then Hofer, but advanced metrics suggest the former outplayed the latter. Goals saved above expected (GSAx), which considers shot quality and tends to be more informative than raw GAA and SV%, suggests that Binnington outplayed Hofer this year while carrying a heavier workload (via EvolvingHockey).
Speaking of goalies performing well in expanded roles, how about Joey Daccord? Sunday wasn't his best outing as he gave up three goals on 27 shots, but he's put together a surprisingly strong season. Daccord entered the year with just 19 games of NHL experience, holding a 3.64 and .884 SV% in those games. Thrust into a starting role this year, he posted a 2.45 GAA and .916 SV% through 49 appearances. He's been a top-10 goalie based on both of those metrics, as well as the more advanced GSAx. Now, this year's increased workload was mostly a product of Philipp Grubauer getting injured, which means Daccord likely returns to a backup role next season. Seattle has invested too much money and term into Grubauer to not use him as a starter.
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Sunday's heavyweight bout between Vegas and Colorado lived up to expectations as the Golden Knights battled back from 3-0 down to take the game 4-3 in overtime.
After scoring the overtime winner on Sunday, Tomas Hertl now has points in three of the four games he's played for Vegas. Two of his three points were tallied with the man advantage as he's benefitted from top unit power-play time. Hertl, who was reliable for a 65-point pace in San Jose, could be more productive in Vegas thanks to a better supporting cast.
William Karlsson led Sunday's charge for the Golden Knights, potting two goals to reach the 30-goal plateau for the second time in his career – the first being when he netted 43 in Vegas' inaugural campaign. Karlsson didn't even hit the 20-goal mark in any of his last four seasons, so this year's resurgence is certainly worth celebrating. That said, I'm wary for a drop-off next year as he may see less opportunity now that Hertl's in the picture.
Noah Hanifin registered an assist on Sunday, giving him seven points in his last six games. Five of those points have come with the man advantage as Hanifin has been skating on Vegas' top power-play unit recently, with Shea Theodore down on group two.
It's only been a few games, but this could have pretty significant fantasy implications if it sticks – and there's reason to believe it will. Hanifin recently signed an eight-year extension with Vegas, so the franchise is more invested in him than they are in Shea Theodore, who only has one more year left on his deal. As you can probably surmise from their LTIR shenanigans and aggressive trade strategy, the Golden Knights don't have a lot of cap space. That means there's a good chance they won't be able to afford a Theodore extension. Turning Hanifin into a power-play quarterback and squeezing every last bit of value out of his contract makes it easier to part ways with Theodore in the future. Through nine seasons in the NHL, Hanifin has never really seen a consistent top power-play quarterback role. However, he's put up a decent number of PPPs in secondary roles, so it's fair to think he can produce more with more opportunity. He's flirted with the 50-point mark twice in three seasons now, so the offensive ability is clearly there. This recent run of power-play success further reinforces that idea.
For the vast majority of this season and the last few, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen have been attached at the hip, playing on the same line. After Colorado laid a goose egg against Winnipeg on Saturday, coach Jared Bednar opted to shake his lines up and spread out the offense. He put Mackinnon between Jonathan Drouin and Artturi Lehkonen, while Rantanen skated beside Valeri Nichushkin and Casey Mittelstadt. Considering each line contributed a goal, I guess you could say the move was successful. Still, considering how dominant Rantanen and MacKinnon have been together in recent years, I imagine we'll see them reunited before the playoffs.
Speaking of Nichushkin, his assist on Sunday was his first point in his last seven games – that includes two games before a four-game injury absence and five games afterwards. It's fair to wonder whether he's at 100% right now.
Another game, another lacklustre start for Alexandar Georgiev. He's allowed four or more goals in five of his last six appearances. If he continues stumbling in the playoffs, could we see 24-year-old Justus Annunen make his postseason debut?
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First game. First shot. First goal. I guess you could say it was a successful NHL debut for Frank Nazar. He was trusted with nearly 16 minutes of ice time, including some secondary power-play action. Nazar skated on Chicago's third line beside Jason Dickinson and Joey Anderson, but he's too talented to stay there long term. Drafted 13th overall in 2022, the 20-year-old center has high-end upside and should see a prominent top-six role with Chicago next year.
Brady Skjei was given the night off on Sunday. Doctor's diagnosis: playoff bug. Skjei boasts a career-high 47 points through 80 games this year. Between this season and last season, he ranks fourth among all defenseman in power-play points per 60 minutes (via NaturalStatTrick). He's been incredibly productive with limited power-play action, so I'd like to see what he can do with more opportunity.
With two goals on Sunday, Seth Jarvis added a couple more exclamation marks to an impressive breakout campaign. He's up to 33 goals and 34 assists, giving him 67 points on the season – a big step up from last year's total of 39. His breakout has been fuelled by more opportunity. He's averaging 18:45 per game after skating 16:12 a night last year. More important is his expanded power-play role. Last year, he managed just five power-play points while seeing 40% of Carolina's time with the man advantage. He's enjoyed a 62% share this year and has 20 PPPs to show for it.
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Dylan Guenther lit the lamp twice against Calgary, giving him 17 goals and 16 assists in 44 games this year. He turned 21 just days ago and is pacing for 62 points as a sophomore. In possession of a top-power play role and a willingness to shoot the puck, Guenther should be a valuable fantasy asset for years to come. The Coyotes' offense ranks top-three in the league since the beginning of March, averaging 3.68 goals per game. Don't sleep on them next year.
After scoring on Sunday, Andrei Kuzmenko now has 14 goals through 27 games with the Flames. He's flirting with a 40-goal pace in Calgary, just as he did in his rookie campaign with Vancouver last year. As you probably know, Kuzmenko was a major piece of the trade that sent Elias Lindholm to Vancouver. While Kuzmenko has 16 points in just his last nine games, Lindholm has 10 points in 24 total games with the Canucks.
With a goal against Arizona, Yegor Sharangovich now has 31 on the season. His first year in Calgary has been a resounding success as he boasts a career-high 59 points. He's benefitted from an expanded power-play role as 17 of his points were tallied with the man advantage. To provide some perspective, he had just five power-play points through 200+ games heading into this season.
Two points on Friday gives Nazem Kadri 73 points in his last 72 games. He stumbled out of the gate with just one point in his first eight outings, but he's been excellent since.
Although Dustin Wolf came away with the win on Sunday, it wasn't quite his best performance as he gave up five goals on 35 shots. The 22-year-old netminder's rookie season hasn't been ideal, but young goalies often need a few years to find their form. He'll have time to grow into his potential as the Flames attempt a retool.
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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!
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