Ramblings: Second Round Previews, Regular Season vs Playoff Player Rating Comparison (May 6)
Grant Campbell
2024-05-06
We had two games on Sunday, with one being Game 1 of the second round between Carolina and the NY Rangers, and the other being Game 7 between Vegas and Dallas.
NY Rangers vs Carolina
The Rangers won 4-3 in a tight game, where Carolina went 0-for-5 on the power play and the Rangers went 2-for-2. Igor Shesterkin outplayed Frederik Andersen and made some timely saves in the third period to prevent this game from going to OT.
Mika Zibanajed had two goals and an assist, while Vincent Trocheck had a goal and an assist and Chris Kreider chipped in with two assists. Artemi Panarin had an eventual game winning goal which made the game 4-2 at the time. Ryan Lindgren led the Rangers in ice time at 23:35, while Will Cuylle led with six hits and Jacob Trouba had four hits and six blocks.
For Carolina, Sebastian Aho led with two assists, while the goals were scored by Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas and Jaccob Slavin. Brent Burns led the team in ice time at 22:54, while Aho and Jordan Martinook led with four hits each and Jake Guentzel led with five blocks.
Dallas vs Vegas
Dallas had home ice for game seven and this game was tied 1-1 after two periods on goals by Wyatt Johnston for Dallas and Brett Howden for Vegas.
In the third period, Dallas got an early goal from Radek Faksa on a backhand which went off the leg of Alec Martinez and into the top corner.
The Stars hung on from there and got a great game from Jake Oettinger in goal. The trade for Chris Tanev sure looks good, while some would say Vegas got struck by karma. Dallas will face Colorado in round 2.
Second-Round Preview
I'm going to look at the upcoming second round in detail and make some predictions based on the current lineups. The PGR number is my player game ratings, which is based off the final regular-season stats and doesn't include the playoffs so far.
I'm going to look at the playoff performance of some key players on each team and see where their rating from the regular season stands up against their playoff performance to date. Keep in mind that the ratings can fluctuate quite a bit until each player gets 15-20 games under their belt. Still, it's an indication of overall play on a game-by-game basis.
Teams are broken down by Team Overall, by player, by position, by line or pairing and by overall forwards, defense or goalie.
I've already made predictions in the Experts Panel, so the ones I make below might be different after writing this.
Edmonton Oilers vs Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks lost one of their biggest potential advantages with the injury to Thatcher Demko and it is probably fair to say that Stuart Skinner has an advantage over Arturs Silovs or Casey DeSmith in goal.
The Canucks are perhaps stronger down the middle when the game gets into the third and fourth lines and the Canucks definitely have the stronger third line.
The Oilers top two lines should outscore the Canucks top two lines. If the Canucks get into penalty trouble, this series will be over in four or five games.
On defense, Quinn Hughes is the wildcard who could swing this in favor of the Canucks. He should have a little more time to move or carry the puck than he did in the series against Nashville. I just can't envision Tyler Myers, Ian Cole, Carson Soucy or Nikita Zadorov not taking penalties against Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl as they try to contain them on the rush.
If the Canucks somehow keep this series even after four games and Thatcher Demko is 100% healthy, this could swing in the Canucks favor.
I'm going Oilers in five.
Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars
Colorado is gunning on all cylinders after defeating Winnipeg in five games in round one. They have improved their overall depth in the forwards quite substantially over 2022-2023 and might get Jonathan Drouin back at some point in this series.
Most thought that the Jets would have a huge advantage in net with Connor Hellebuyck against Alexandar Georgiev, but the Avalanche averaged five goals in each game against Hellebuyck and Georgiev came out on top. Dallas will have a hard time keeping this team off of the scoresheet.
In the forwards, Dallas can't match the top end talent of the Avalanche but they do have a little more depth at center ice and on the third line. I've said this about the Stars before, that they have three first lines and one fourth line. They have the flexibility to rely on any of three lines in any game, whereas Colorado can't say the same.
On defense, Cale Makar stands out but the Stars have Miro Heiskanen to match to a degree. Heiskanen can't take over a game like Makar can, but he defends a little better. If either team can exploit the third pairing on the opposition, this could be fairly high scoring. I'd give the small edge to Colorado, here but it's very close.
In goal, Oettinger is rounding out his game to the level it was during the regular season of 2022-2023 and could be the difference maker. It didn't help out the probable Vezina winner in round one, but Oettinger will need to be great. The Avalanche will need average goaltending or better from Georgiev.
I'm going Colorado in six.
Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers
Florida has the overall advantage in this series with more top-end talent in the forwards and a deeper, more talented defense.
Without Sam Bennett in the lineup, Boston has the advantage down the middle as well as a small advantage in goal with Jeremy Swayman over Sergei Bobrovsky.
Boston squeaked out the series against Toronto with Auston Matthews less than 100% and missing two games as well as William Nylander missing the first three games. The Bruins will need to keep Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk in check.
The Panthers have Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour trending up as they are finding their 'A' game leading up to and in the first round of the playoffs.
I'm going with Florida in six.
Carolina Hurricanes vs NY Rangers
This could be one the tightest series, as these teams match up razor thin.
Carolina is missing Brett Pesce on defense and will need Tony DeAngelo to play much better than he did in the regular season. The Rangers have a small advantage on defense.
In the forwards, Vincent Trocheck and Mika Zibanejad are one of the best one-two punches down the middle in the NHL and Carolina lacks a little of the offensive punch that the Rangers do at center. Carolina has a bit of an advantage with a better third and fourth line especially if they get contributions from Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Evgeny Kuznetsov.
In the crease, both teams start the series even with Igor Shesterkin up against Frederik Andersen. I might give a slight nod to Shesterkin here.
Rangers in six. New York won game one 4-3.
Players elevating their games in the playoffs
I don't usually like to use my player game ratings for anything under 15-20 games during the regular season, but in the playoffs, players don't have the time afforded to them to not elevate their games and not every player is capable of doing just that.
We are going to go through each playoff team and see which player or players were able to raise their level of play from the regular season in the first round. Conversely, we will look at the players who struggled compared to their regular season.
If players aren't listed below, it is because they were able to match what they did in the regular season for the most part.
Only skaters are listed and this is for the first-round games only, so doesn't include the NY Rangers and Carolina game in the second round, which was on Sunday afternoon.
Boston Bruins
No surprise here as Brad Marchand raised his game rating from 6.63 in the regular season to 6.83 in the seven games against Toronto. Others elevating their games were Jake DeBrusk (6.49 to 6.67), Hampus Lindholm (6.4 to 6.53) and Trent Frederic (6.47 to 6.59).
On the flip side, David Pastrnak struggled but came up with the big OT winner in game seven going from 7.0 to 6.72. Others struggling were Pavel Zacha (6.6 to 6.34) and Kevin Shattenkirk (6.41 to 6.17).
Carolina Hurricanes
Seth Jarvis saw his ratings go from 6.65 to 6.95 as he had seven points in five games. He was followed by Brady Skjei (6.56 to 6.77), Jack Drury (6.36 to 6.53), Evgeny Kuznetsov (6.35 to 6.51) and Jordan Staal (6.44 to 6.55).
Jake Guentzel had the biggest fall off from the regular season going from 6.85 to 6.53. He was followed by Sebastian Aho (6.81 to 6.59) and Jaccob Slavin (6.5 to 6.42).
Colorado Avalanche
Artturi Lehkonen as his ratings jump considerably from 6.59 to 7.17. Anything over seven is very hard to maintain as there were only five players who did so during the regular season. He was joined by Josh Manson (6.48 to 6.89), Casey Mittelstadt (6.52 to 6.9), Valeri Nichushkin (6.74 to 7.11), Cale Makar (6.9 to 7.23), Mikko Rantanen (6.92 to 7.25), Ross Colton (6.49 to 6.7) and Devon Toews (6.57 to 6.72).
Nathan MacKinnon kept pace with his incredible regular season going from 7.27 to 7.33 in the playoffs after five games.
The only players on the other side, were Sean Walker (6.48 to 6.3), Jack Johnson (6.29 to 6.16) and Brandon Duhaime (6.28 to 6.2)
Dallas Stars
The pressure of the playoffs was not too big for 20-year-old Wyatt Johnston as he saw his ratings go from 6.65 to 6.86. He was alone in this regard on this roster, but it was enough for the Stars to get by Vegas.
Players feeling the pressure were Joe Pavelski (6.67 to 6.23), Nils Lundkvist (6.32 to 6.03), Roope Hintz (6.62 to 6.36), Matt Duchene (6.61 to 6.37) and Thomas Harley (6.58 to 6.44). For context on a player like Harley who I've included here, his 6.58 rating is very much above average while his 6.44 rating puts him just slightly above average or an average defender).
Edmonton Oilers
Leon Draisaitl is a playoff performer and has seen his rating go from 6.82 to 7.49. He is joined by Evan Bouchard (6.79 to 7.22), Zach Hyman (6.82 to 7.22) and Connor McDavid (7.14 to 7.36).
Corey Perry has gone from 6.34 to 6.12 and is joined by Mattias Ekholm (6.61 to 6.43), Ryan McLeod (6.36 to 6.18), Adam Henrique (6.57 to 6.41) and Warren Foegele (6.48 to 6.36).
Florida Panthers
Carter Verhaeghe was on fire seeing his rating shoot up from 6.73 to 7.32. He was followed by Matthew Tkachuk (6.85 to 7.27), Brandon Montour (6.55 to 6.82), Steven Lorentz (6.18 to 6.42), Niko Mikkola (6.38 to 6.6), Gustav Forsling (6.57 to 6.78) and Aaron Ekblad (6.49 to 6.65). If the Panthers defense continues to play at this level Boston is in trouble.
Struggling Panthers were Nick Cousins (6.33 to 6.18), Dmitry Kulikov (6.35 to 6.22) and Vladimir Tarasenko (6.55 to 6.43).
Los Angeles Kings
There were some Kings who really elevated their games in the five-game series loss to Edmonton. It just wasn't the difference maker the Kings needed. Alex Laferriere had a good series raising his rating from 6.33 to 6.55 and he was joined by Mikey Anderson (6.41 to 6.63) and Andreas Englund (6.24 to 6.36).
Some of the struggling players for the Kings were Carl Grundstrom (6.36 to 6.14), Trevor Moore (6.64 to 6.45), Viktor Arvidsson (6.73 to 6.55), Vladislav Gavrikov (6.4 to 6.23) and Kevin Fiala (6.64 to 6.56).
Nashville Predators
Alexandre Carrier had the highest ratings increase on the Predators going from 6.38 to 6.58, followed by Jason Zucker (6.43 to 6.58).
On the negative side of things were Roman Josi who saw his rating go from 6.87 to 6.55, Tommy Novak (6.44 to 6.16), Gustav Nyquist (6.59 to 6.35), Ryan O'Reilly (6.67 to 6.48), Kiefer Sherwood (6.45 to 6.29) and Cole Smith (6.36 to 6.2).
NY Islanders
The Islanders only had a few players play above their regular season selves. Kyle Palmieri went from 6.56 to 6.69, followed by Anders Lee (6.51 to 6.63) and Adam Pelech (6.4 to 6.51).
Noah Dobson wasn't the same player seeing his rating plummet from 6.76 to 6.31. He was joined by Cal Clutterbuck (6.31 to 6.13) and Hudson Fasching (6.28 to 6.16).
NY Rangers
For some players, the playoffs can be an opportunity to redeem a less than stellar regular season. Barclay Goodrow is a prime example of that seeing his rating go from 6.29 to 6.66. He was joined by Mika Zibanejad (6.72 to 7.08), Jacob Trouba (6.58 to 6.9), Vincent Trocheck (6.84 to 7.04), Jack Roslovic (6.43 to 6.62), Jimmy Vesey (6.31 to 6.43), Alexis Lafreniere (6.56 to 6.66) and Matt Rempe (6.22 to 6.31).
Artemi Panarin saw his rating go from 6.94 to 6.6, while Alex Wennberg (6.39 to 6.17), Ryan Lindgren (6.35 to 6.19), Braden Schneider (6.38 to 6.23), Chris Kreider (6.71 to 6.6) and Adam Fox (6.74 to 6.64) saw some drop offs as well, but keep in mind this was just a four game series over Washington.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning saw good performances from Victor Hedman (6.71 to 7.01), Steven Stamkos (6.78 to 6.94), Nicholas Paul (6.5 to 6.59) and Erik Cernak (6.36 to 6.45).
Nikita Kucherov was still very good but just not regular season good as he saw his rating go from 7.09 to 6.81. He was followed by Michael Eyssimont (6.37 to 6.28) and Anthony Duclair (6.44 to 6.37) on smaller scales.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Although it was disappointing overall for the Maple Leafs, they did see some good performances from Matthew Knies (6.4 to 6.54), Joel Edmundson (6.26 to 6.38), Tyler Bertuzzi (6.48 to 6.6), Ilya Lyubushkin (6.34 to 6.45) and Max Domi (6.45 to 6.55).
It was impressive to see Auston Matthews go from 7.14 to 6.91. Even at not close to 100% he was still able to play at a very high level.
The villains were Mitch Marner (6.79 to 6.38), Timothy Liljegren (6.48 to 6.17), Nicholas Robertson (6.4 to 6.19), Pontus Holmberg (6.33 to 6.16), Calle Jarnkrok (6.4 to 6.24), Jake McCabe (6.49 to 6.35), John Tavares (6.79 to 6.67) and Morgan Rielly (6.73 to 6.62).
Vancouver Canucks
It's not surprising when a team who doesn't score much in a six-game series to have many players who surpassed their rating from the regular season.
Nikita Zadorov saw his rating go from 6.35 to 6.57, with the only other players being Brock Boeser (6.65 to 6.72), Dakota Joshua (6.51 to 6.55), Pius Suter (6.4 to 6.43) and Elias Lindholm (6.59 to 6.61).
Filip Hronek was surprisingly the worst Canuck on the other end of things going from 6.54 to 6.16. He was followed by Elias Pettersson (6.81 to 6.46), Nils Hoglander (6.39 to 6.07), Ilya Mikheyev (6.37 to 6.11), Quinn Hughes (6.86 to 6.63) and Sam Lafferty (6.33 to 6.14).
Vegas Golden Knights
Brayden McNabb has gone from a rating of 6.49 to 6.79 and is followed by Ivan Barbashev (6.47 to 6.59), William Carrier (6.34 to 6.42) and Noah Hanifin (6.57 to 6.64).
Players struggling for Vegas were William Karlsson (6.7 to 6.36), Shea Theodore (6.69 to 6.38), Alec Martinez (6.49 to 6.25), Anthony Mantha (6.43 to 6.19), Nicolas Roy (6.49 to 6.26), Chandler Stephenson (6.48 to 6.26), Zach Whitecloud (6.36 to 6.15), Mark Stone (6.63 to 6.43). Tomas Hertl (6.63 to 6.46) and Alex Pietrangelo (6.61 to 6.44). This is probably what cost them the series as some of these players didn't have enough runway to find their form.
Washington Capitals
It is no surprise to see Tom Wilson near the top of this list for the Capitals as he went from 6.55 to 6.76 but he was second to Martin Fehervary who went from 6.39 to 6.78 in four games. These two were joined by Aliaksei Protas (6.34 to 6.48) and Hendrix Lapierre (6.33 to 6.45).
It was sad to see Alex Ovechkin on the other side of the ledger as he went from 6.7 to 6.19. Others were Sonny Milano (6.32 to 6.07), T.J. Oshie (6.47 to 6.25) and Max Pacioretty (6.44 to 6.24).
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets missed Brenden Dillon who was injured after three games and saw his rating go from 6.42 to 6.71 in those games. Others performing well in the five-game loss to Colorado were Mark Scheifele (6.71 to 6.79) and Kyle Connor (6.7 to 6.76).
Tyler Toffoli struggled going from 6.57 to 6.36 and was joined by Nikolaj Ehlers (6.62 to 6.46), Dylan DeMelo (6.47 to 6.32), Vladislav Namestnikov (6.41 to 6.26), Dylan Samberg (6.33 to 6.2) and Sean Monahan (6.57 to 6.47).
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at, please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.