Ramblings: Panthers Take Series Lead with Marchand Injured; Oilers Tie Series with Dominant McDavid and Draisaitl (May 11)

Ian Gooding

2024-05-11

Two games of playoff pucks on Friday. Let's get to it.

Panthers 6, Bruins 2 (Panthers lead series 2-1)

After a fight-filled Game 2, the two teams were on much better behavior in Game 3, combining for just 16 penalty minutes. However, 12 of those minutes were from the Bruins, and the Panthers made them pay for those by scoring four power-play goals. Those goals were from Vladimir Tarasenko, Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour and Evan Rodrigues.

Rodrigues finished with two goals, while Matthew Tkachuk assisted on three of the goals. Sam Reinhart scored the other Panthers' goal into an empty net.

Sam Bennett returned to the lineup for Game 3 after missing the past five games with an upper-body injury. He was back on a line with Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe, while superpest Nick Cousins was bumped out of the lineup. Bennett made an impact on the physical side of things, registering seven hits (one of them below).

With two assists in Game 3, Aleksander Barkov is red hot with 10 points over his last four games. Three of those four games have resulted in multiple points.

Not only did the Bruins lose this game in convincing fashion, but also Brad Marchand left the game with an upper-body injury after the second period. Marchand took a hit from Bennett during the first period. His status for Game 4 on Sunday is unknown.

Jakub Lauko and Jake DeBrusk scored for the Bruins. DeBrusk also assisted on Lauko's goal.

Jeremy Swayman was outstanding during the Toronto series, but he now has really bad starts in back-to-back games. Florida carried the play in both Games 2 and 3, but Swayman has now allowed nine goals over the past two games. Since the Bruins alternated goalies all season, I wonder if Swayman gets at least a short break and Linus Ullmark is given the Game 4 nod. If nothing else, a goaltending switch might provide something to change the momentum for the Bruins.  

I picked the Panthers to win in six games. So far, I don't have any reason to want to change that pick.

Oilers 4, Canucks 3 OT (series tied 1-1)

Evan Bouchard scored 5:38 into overtime to give the Oilers a split heading back to Edmonton for Game 3 on Sunday.

The Oilers controlled play in the third period and finally seemed to show the Canucks what they are capable of. Despite outshooting the Canucks 15-2 in that period with a ton of offensive zone time, they could only tie the game. This was the Oilers' first win in six tries against the Canucks during both the regular season and playoffs, so this has to feel like a huge monkey off their back.

Edmonton's strategy was to load up the top line with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman, then play the heck out of them. All three finished the 65-minute game with at least 25 minutes in icetime, with McDavid logging 26:23 after three periods.

McDavid and Draisaitl also posted identical stat lines of a goal and three assists with a plus-2. After being held without a shot in Game 1, McDavid was much more visible in Game 2, scoring his goal on a breakaway. Draisaitl was a game-time decision because of an injury from Game 1, but he showed no lingering effects of his injury. Not surprisingly, McDavid and Draisaitl are now 1-2 in playoff scoring with 17 points and 16 points respectively.

Mattias Ekholm scored the Oilers' other goal, giving him goals in back-to-back games.

Nikita Zadorov has been an absolute force during the playoffs, leading all defensemen with four goals during the playoffs. As well, Zadorov has multiple points in back-to-back games. Big Z is going to get paid from someone this offseason, whether that be from the Canucks or someone else. Here in Vancouver, the debate centers around whether to re-sign Zadorov or Filip Hronek. Although it seemed clear that the answer would have been Hronek during the season, the case for Zadorov has really picked up steam during the playoffs. Usually a banger and not a goal scorer, Zadorov managed to score 14 goals for Calgary last season.

Elias Pettersson finally found the net, scoring his first playoff goal in eight games. Dating back to the regular season, he had scored just one goal in his last 20 games prior to Game 3. That's not going to get it done against a team that can score as often as the Oilers, so this goal might go a long way in regaining his scoring touch and his confidence.

Brock Boeser scored the Canucks' other goal, giving him points in three consecutive games.

Maybe this is homerism or simply bucking the trend, but I picked the Canucks to win in seven games. Even without a win in Game 2, I'm still fairly confident that the Canucks can find a way to win the series. The Oilers showed something in Game 2 that they hadn't in Game 1, even before their collapse. This is a series that has a great chance to go seven games.  

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If you haven't been able to stay up late to watch this series because you're in the Eastern time zone, I totally understand. When I was in the Toronto area in November, I could only make it through two periods of the Hockey Night in Canada late game before I had to call it a night. Maybe I'm getting old, but staying up until 1 am to watch hockey isn't easy. Hopefully you get something out of these game recaps.

I mentioned this on my X account already, but I somehow went 7-for-8 on my first-round picks (staff picks here). I only whiffed on Colorado taking care of Winnipeg, which wasn't an easy pick for me but I had more faith in Connor Hellebuyck than I had in Alexandar Georgiev. I really should have had more confidence in Nathan MacKinnon and company, as Winnipeg's skaters were no match.

I think it's going to be more difficult to make correct picks in the second round. The one series that looks like it'll already be a miss for me is the Rangers/Hurricanes series, where I went with Carolina in 7. If the Canes are to win this series, they will need the full seven games to pull this off in miraculous form. I'll try to stop short in writing a full post-mortem on the Hurricanes, instead bringing up the fact that all three games have been decided by one goal with two going to overtime. It's possible that the analytical models that place the Hurricanes in such a positive light don't hold up in a small sample like a playoff series. At this point, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are a game of slim margins.

Another reason the Rangers are winning this series is special teams. So far, they are 4-for-13 on the power play, while the Canes have been shut out at 0-for-15 with the man advantage.

Going back even farther, the Canes' last eight postseason losses have all been by one goal. Five of those losses were in overtime.

Imagine if the Rangers win later today. They will have punched their ticket to the conference final before the Canucks and Oilers even play Game 3 of their series.

I'll squeeze Dallas and Colorado in here as well. I picked the Stars in 7 (staff picks here) because they were my preseason Stanley Cup favorite. Although being tied 1-1 isn't the worst spot to be in, the Stars blowing a three-goal lead in Game 1 and nearly blowing a four-goal lead in Game 2 has me concerned. The Avalanche can simply score their way out of trouble.  

A day after firing head coach Sheldon Keefe, the Leafs held their widely anticipated season-end press conference. As what has become commonplace for eliminated teams, Leafs GM Brad Treliving released the full details on injuries they were battling through.

None of these injuries appear to be the type that would impact the player's availability for training camp in the fall. Hopefully Auston Matthews and William Nylander in particular are able to heal over the summer, as head injuries can be unpredictable. Joseph Woll is a potential starter for the Leafs next season, but it will be important for the Leafs to acquire at least a veteran 1A/1B goalie with both Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones set to hit free agency.

Brendan Shanahan's answer (or non-answer) to whether the Leafs can win with the core four seems to indicate that they will explore trading anyone on the roster. As I've said before, Mitch Marner seems to be the most likely candidate, but I'm sure just about anything is on the table to shake up a group that has repeatedly fallen short during the playoffs. Moving one of these players could provide the Leafs with more much-needed balance throughout their roster. In fact, I would even go one step further and wonder what Leafs would look like if they hadn't signed John Tavares in 2018.

The Penguins have signed Valtteri Puustinen to a two-year contract extension worth $1.55 million. Puustinen split time between the NHL and AHL last season, recording 20 points in 52 games with the Penguins. Although only two of the 20 points were on the power play, Puustinen averaged second-unit power-play minutes in 2023-24 and even saw time on the top power play for a brief stretch. Puustinen is only 24, so there's a chance he could move up the lineup in 2024-25 and increase his 11:45 TOI from this past season.

Follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
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Starting Goalies

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PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A

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JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency WPG Players
28.2 GABRIEL VILARDI MARK SCHEIFELE KYLE CONNOR
16.5 COLE PERFETTI VLADISLAV NAMESTNIKOV NIKOLAJ EHLERS
14.8 ALEX IAFALLO DAVID GUSTAFSSON MORGAN BARRON

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