Frozen Tools Forensics: First-Round Exits for Toronto, Washington, Tampa, and NY Islanders

Chris Kane

2024-05-17

This week we are returning to our playoff series with the second part of our first-round review. Last week we covered the teams eliminated from the Western Conference: Nashville, Vegas, LA, and Winnipeg. This week we are moving on to talk about the Eastern Conference, which means Toronto, Washington, Tampa, and the New York Islanders.

As a reminder this series is really focused on the things that changed for the team. It is such a small sample size that we are not going to read too much into point paces, but instead look at how players were utilized in these win-or-go-home series and if that change resulted in anything different on the score sheet or in the underlying numbers. Doing so might give us a bit of insight into how coaches are viewing certain players and who might be primed for a different role next season compared to this one. This is also the playoffs, so to some extent we would assume that a team's top players see a bit of an increase while some depth players might fall off a bit.

Caveat time for all of these first-round exits. They all lost. In the first round. That means small sample sizes of course, but it also means that what the team/coach did didn't really work, so there will be less motivation to build on it for next year.

And now on to the process. We will be looking at deployment and specifically percent of time on the power-play, and total time on ice. We will be using percent as overtime games can add significant time to a player's overall count without changing that player's real deployment opportunity. In order to get this data, we will be running a Big Board report for the playoffs and comparing that to a second custom Big Board report for the last two months of the regular season. That comparison will tell us which players have gained or lost time between these two samples. Essentially we are looking at four data points from two different time periods. We have basic scoring data (points per game, and shots per game), then basic time on ice data (percent of the power-play, and total time on ice).

First up, the Islanders. Unlike the majority of situations last week, we actually have some players who looked a little different in this series. It looks like essentially the top nine lines saw at least a minute more of ice time (some of this due to overtime), plus by the last games these lines were looking different than during the regular season. The top scoring line was Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzal and Casey Cizikas. The second line looks like Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri, and Pierre Engvall. The top power play also saw a chunk more time, which again is not entirely surprising. Of all the Islanders forwards, Anders Lee was one of few who actually put up a higher shot rate, and points per game rate than the end of the season.

Basically, this entire crew is under contract for next season, so running back similar lines is certainly an option. It is interesting to see that Engvall and Cizikas got a bump in deployment, though it seems unlikely that Cizikas at least will hold that after a career of bottom six deployment. Overall, while these lines did get more time, and a couple of players switched roles, I don't think there is too much to read into here.

Washington is a bit of a wasteland in this view. They got swept, and scored all of seven goals. Dylan Strome, T.J. Oshie, Max Pacioretty, and Tom Wilson technically saw more time – either overall, or on the power-play, but that is about all we can say about this series. Strome and Wilson seem to be all that is left of an under-35 core, so we shouldn't be too surprised they saw more time. The only other note is that Connor McMichael did go on a nice shooting spree, upping his shot rates by over one per game. Given he is one of the few younger players on this team preparing to step into a bigger role, that was good to see. Coupled with a decent showing a few times at the end of the season, he is probably the one worth keeping an eye on.

Tampa is looking at a five-game loss to Florida. They lost, so clearly didn't score enough goals, but the drop off was not as dramatic as for some of these other teams. Most of their players did score at a lower pace than during the season, but most did not miss by a lot. In terms of deployment, the top line/top power-play players saw a bit more time, which is pretty much expected.

The interesting notes are the loss of power-play time for Anthony Cirelli and Anthony Duclair (not a good series to be Anthony on a power play apparently). Duclair is interesting as he was getting prime deployment after arriving in Tampa, but lost both towards the end of the season and during this series. Cirelli was also getting a few turns on the power play earlier in the season, but not during the playoffs. Brandon Hagel was back on that top unit for what it's worth. I think this just reinforces that Cirelli isn't likely to get long term looks and that guys like Hagel and Nick Paul probably remain as the top choices pending further lineup changes.

Finally, Toronto. Woof. First up, no one scored more during this series than during the regular season. Not a shocking observation. They did have a couple of big names who missed games in Auston Matthews and William Nylander, which created some opportunities for others, plus Matthews was reportedly ill/injured so was probably not getting the time he would otherwise have gotten. Likely because of that the line of John Tavares, Matthew Knies, and William Nylander saw the most time, all increases from the regular season.

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Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi saw time-on-ice increases as well on a line with Mitch Marner. Nylander, Knies, and Bertuzzi also improved their shot rates. On the whole it is hard to read too much into it with the injuries/illness, but it is good to see Knies being given a bigger role (and doing a little something with it), he is someone I will be paying attention to during the off season. Bertuzzi is a UFA, and I do wonder if this is any indication of Toronto's interest in bringing him back if possible.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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