Ramblings: Quick Round Three Preview; 2024 Prospect Mock Draft for my Fantasy Dynasty League (May 20)

Alexander MacLean

2024-05-20

Hey all, it's Alex filling in for Brennan. I have to say when I told Brennan two months ago that I would cover this Rambling date, it was not on my radar that it was the long weekend – sneaky bugger, I hope you're enjoying yourself.

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With both the Boston/Florida and Dallas/Colorado series ending in six games, we didn't have any NHL hockey last night, which was a bit of a nice break in the schedule of what has been an exceptional second round in terms of entertainment value. Usually I find there's a steady drop off from rounds one to two and then to three. This year, there didn't seem to be a drop off in entertainment or intensity, and I'm expecting that the Rangers/Panthers series should live up to that too. I'm not sure how well either the Canucks or Oilers will stack up to the Stars at this point.

In case that didn't sum it up for you, I expect Dallas to advance to the Cup final, and I have the Rangers advancing over the Panthers in six games – I think goaltending will be the big difference maker there. Let's hear your projections for the final in the comments section, in advance of tonight's Edmonton/Vancouver game, which I think Stuart Skinner and the Oilers pull out here.

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It's always nice to be able to get the cap league skater and goalie rankings prepped and into the hopper early, so there's no rushing about at the last minute to meet deadlines. They're scheduled and ready to be released at the end of the week. Let me know if there are any questions on them when they do come up, or if there are any either-or questions in the meantime. I could use some content for the Wednesday Ramblings this week.

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Jumping in to a date out of my usual routine means I get to break out the fun topics that I have been sitting on like a mock draft. Except the fun part is, I'm going to be doing it for my dynasty league, and not based on what NHL teams are expected to do. I've been trying to map this out for a little while, because in my salary cap dynasty league my team needed a bit of a reset, and I (Thornhill) ended up with picks eight, 10, 17, 20, 22, 23, and 24 in our first round (it's a 24-team league).

For a bit more context, we roster 25 players on our pro squad under a $100M cap, plus a minors system with 15 slots. The setup is a weekly H2H matchup with the most points taking a singular win – goals and assists are each worth one point with other stats collecting fractal amounts.

Let's dive in:

[Format is: Pick #) League Team Name – Player]

1) James Bay – Macklin Celebrini (F)

Our first owner here isn't going to overthink this one, and adds Celebrini to a youth collection that included Logan Cooley, Marco Rossi, Brad Lambert, Clayton Keller, Thomas Harley, and Adam Fantilli. Being bad for a while will fill up your cupboards like that, but the problem is then turning the corner into contention while paying all the players. Celebrini probably worsens the cap crunch four years from now, but in the meantime it's a slam dunk pick.

2) Hamilton – Ivan Demidov (F)

Our Hamilton manager used the 2022-2023 season to re-tool a bit, including picking up Jack Hughes in a three-team trade while he was on the IR for a while. Then, he ended up with Matvei Michkov in the draft last season, setting up a contention window that will open as soon as Michkov comes over. Demidov should give Hamilton another piece that's coming in just at the right time, and bringing a ton of offence. Nothing to overthink here either.

3) Montreal – Cayden Lindstrom (F)

This is the part of the fantasy drafts where it starts to open up a bit. However, I have a feeling that our resident fantasy Montreal GM will also be looking for a tall centre to line up alongside his young core. Lindstrom fits that bill, and comes with some great upside, as long as he can stay healthy.

4) Fort Frances – Berkley Catton (F)

With Simon Nemec and David Jiricek as the spoils from last year's draft, Fort Frances likely isn't going to be the first GM that grabs a defenceman this year. Catton profiles as one of the top fantasy scorers from this year's draft, despite some questions about his size. I'm not concerned, and I don't think other fantasy managers should be either.

5) Fresno – Cole Eiserman (F)

After winning the Connor Bedard sweepstakes last year, Fresno didn't get quite as lucky this year, but still walks out of the draft with what could become one of the top scorers in the draft. It will be interesting to see where Eiserman gets drafted in real life (and we can wait to find out before our draft too, which starts on July 15th).

6) Saskatchewan – Artyom Levshunov (D)

With a pro roster that is almost as barren as a prairie landscape (okay it's not that bad), the pull to add one of the top players to the lineup regardless of position makes a lot of sense. Especially since the farm team is more slanted towards forwards, I think this is as far as Levshunov slips, and I expect him to be the first defenceman off the bboard both in the NHL draft, as well as fantasy prospect drafts.

7) Sudbury – Tij Iginla (F)

Once bitten, twice shy. After Sudbury selected Owen Power early in the 2021 draft, and then he was signed to a massive extension after just two seasons in the league, the impending cap hit led to Sudbury trading him out of town this past season. I would expect him to be looking at forwards at this point, with Tij being perhaps both the safest and the highest upside forward left on the board.

8) Thornhill – Zeev Buium (D)

Annoyingly, the seven selected ahead of me are where my second tier ends for this draft (though I'm sure it will change a little before draft time), and so I'm reaching down into my third tier for these next couple of picks. Buium is the second defenceman on my board, and I see just a slight bit more of a gap from him to the next D-man than I do on the forwards at this point, so he would be my hedge pick here knowing that I also have pick #10 coming up too. Plus he just put up a ridiculous season in college, so there's a lot of offensive upside to like here.

9) South Carolina – Zayne Parekh (D)

South Carolina is stacked with forward prospects, in addition to some good young pieces at the NHL level, but on defence there's a lot less of interest, especially when you consider that Noah Hanifin, Seth Jones, and Jacob Trouba are costing him nearly $25 million against the cap. Some cheap production on defence would go a long way, and Parekh should do just that, especially when you consider that offensive defencemen often end up just being power play merchants resulting in lower salaries to boot.

10) Thornhill – Konsta Helenius (F)

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This isn't a pick that I'm in love with, but at this point we're past the forwards with above point-per-game upside, and I would settle for someone who might end up closer to Nico Hischier, Philip Danault, or Mikael Granlund. That would still be a pretty solid contributor, and if he slides into this range in the NHL draft, then he should have some solid support on the wings in a couple of short years with a team that doesn't have to push him into a role he isn't ready for.

11) Windsor – Sam Dickinson (D)

As a London Knights fan I've watched a few games of Dickinson through their OHL playoff run, and he is going to be a great pick. At this point he's above where Oliver Bonk was last year, and Bonk took and excellent step forward in his D+1 season with the Knights. Dickinson has all the tools that Bonk does, is a slightly bigger frame, and I think he's going to be an excellent second or third defenceman on a contending team in the NHL for a long time. A very safe selection here in fantasy too for a team that badly needs someone on defence to cover for their glut of young forwards.

12) Maine – Beckett Sennecke (F)

Our Maine team isn't one that has often kept his first-round pick to this point in the season, and over recent years has finished a little higher up the standings too. That makes it tough to project exactly what he's going to do with the pick (other than probably trade it). Getting one of the last players viewed in that top-15 tier that Bob McKenzie is getting from his scouting sources would be a great way to help speed up that reset.

!3) Glasgow – Carter Yakemchuk (D)

The Glasgow team has dealt with a lot of injuries and bad luck over the last couple of years, but has a core that would look like a contender in just about any fantasy league. Gambles on John Klingberg and Calen Addison haven't exactly panned out though, while Kevin Korchinski's progression has stalled a little too, which might push this GM towards a high-scoring defenceman who might be able to jump right in with some goals and PIMs on the blueline.

14) Valley – Trevor Connelly (F)

Speaking of Bob's top-15 group, Connelly would be the last forward on that list, and I don't think he lasts too long here either. He has a very high offensive upside, which means he shouldn't last longer than the mid-teens in any fantasy prospect draft. As this owner also rosters Marner and Pastrnak, it works out well that Connelly projects as a LW too. He is though a bit of a risk as a result of his off-ice red flags.

15) Victoria – Anton Silayev (D)

At risk of getting sidetracked a little here, my initial research into evaluating public scouts is showing that year to year, public scouts don't out-rank the NHL draft. Meaning, if you just follow the NHL draft order and take the highest guy left, you probably won't do too poorly. Last year I did that for a few selections, ending up with Easton Cowan, Oliver Bonk, and Charlie Stramel as a result – two out of three ain't bad.

All that to say, that seems to be what Victoria does for their drafting, and the likely top player left on the board here would be Anton Silayev. He's going to play NHL minutes because of his size. The question is just whether he ends up closer to Tyler Myers as a rookie, or Tyler Myers the rest of his career.

16) Saskatchewan – Liam Greentree (F)

After taking a safer pick as a defenceman in round one, taking a higher upside, offensive forward makes sense with a second pick in round one. Greentree was an exceptional scorer in the OHL this year, leading the way with 90 points on a Windsor team that didn't have a ton else offensively, as second in scoring was Greentree's centreman with 66 points.

17) Thornhill – Andrew Basha (F)

Getting Lindstrom's teammate here makes sense as there is some discussion as to the fact that Basha could end up being the higher-end offensive player of the two. His intelligence, quickness, and give-and-go style game should lend itself well in adapting quickly to the pro game too. After two safer picks, I needed to swing for the fences a little.

18) Hamilton – Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (F)

With Hamilton's second pick of the draft, and all of the top defencemen off the board, getting another near-NHL-ready player to jump in for their approaching contention window. MBN doesn't have quite the same perceived ceiling as some others, but he should be an excellent complimentary player, and already has a very responsible and pro-ready foundation. Of the players from this draft, he has one of the shortest wait times before getting meaningful NHL games.

19) South Carolina – Adam Jiricek

Even though South Carolina takes a top defenceman earlier in the draft, I have him taking another defenceman here because there isn't one forward that really stands out, and there is one defenceman left that has first-round offensive upside – Jiricek. Despite losing most of his draft year to a knee injury, he was at times viewed as someone that could push for a top-10 selection. With how NHL teams draft defencemen, he still could end up there. Getting two upside Dmen really helps change the outlook of SC's prospect pool.

20) Thornhill – Terik Parascak

There aren't any worthwhile defencemen left at this point in the draft, so back we go to upside forwards. The knock on Parascak is his skating, but the intelligent winger just piled up points in the WHL this year, with an NHLe (measurement of standardized production across leagues) near the top of the draft class.

21) Royal City – Jett Luchanko

As our resident fan of the Guelph Storm, this pick seems both like a good fit, and a bit of a homer pick at the same time. Luchanko has been compared to Easton Cowan with how he has shot up with a strong second half in the OHL, boosting his case to be selected by an NHL team in the 20s at the NHL draft. In our draft, where offence is prioritized, he goes a little higher.

Picks 22 – 24 are all owned by me (Thornhill), and I'll fill in the rest of the round with Sasha Boisvert, Michael Hage, and Igor Chernyshov, as we get into the players that have both upside and warts. My opinion on the draft is that the top tier has Celebrini and then Demidov, with tier two running from three to seven, and the next tier encompassing eight to 14. There is an end of a tier after Trevor Connelly in this draft (depending on how you feel about Greentree he could be in there too), and then after that it's pretty wide open to about pick 30, where there is another drop off in terms of players that might be worth drafting at all.

I'm sure my list and opinions will change a lot before the draft, and I will have some content following up on that as well. If you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments. See you on Wednesday.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
Dec 22 - 17:12 T.B vs FLA
Dec 22 - 17:12 UTA vs ANA
Dec 22 - 17:12 WSH vs L.A
Dec 22 - 20:12 EDM vs OTT
Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency T.B Players
80.3 BRAYDEN POINT NIKITA KUCHEROV JAKE GUENTZEL
61.5 LUKE GLENDENING ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS MICHAEL EYSSIMONT
39.3 BRANDON HAGEL CONOR GEEKIE ANTHONY CIRELLI

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