The Oilers' special teams are a major reason that they are now one win away from the Stanley Cup Final.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored two power-play goals to lead the Oilers to a 3-1 win over Dallas in Game 5. Nuge has quietly been effective with 20 points in 17 playoff games. He is known more for assists, but he has a pretty lethal shot as well.

RNH. AGAIN. 🚨🚨

Nugent-Hopkins doubles down on the power-play. 2-0 Edmonton 🍿 pic.twitter.com/Ch33dPWQaB

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) June 1, 2024

We all know about the Oilers' stacked power play. However, one major key to their success has been 25 consecutive penalty kills. In other words, the Stars have yet to score a power-play goal in this series. The Canucks also had issues with their power play later in their second-round series with the Oilers.

Evan Bouchard assisted on both of Nugent-Hopkins' goals. The top four players in the playoff scoring race are all Oilers (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Bouchard, Nugent-Hopkins).

Philip Broberg scored the Oilers' other goal to make the game 3-0 in the second period. Broberg was playing in just his second playoff game, having being inserted into the lineup for Game 4 in place of the less offensive-minded Vincent Desharnais. The change seems to be working for the Oilers.

Remember when Stuart Skinner was pulled in favor of Calvin Pickard because he looked shaky in the Vancouver series? Since returning to the net for Game 6 against the Canucks, Skinner has earned quality starts in five of seven games. He still has a sub-.900 save percentage for the playoffs (.890 SV%), but his recent play suggests that goaltending isn't a real concern for the Oilers at the moment.

Wyatt Johnston scored the Stars' only goal late in the third period. Only Zach Hyman has more goals than Johnston, who is tied with Draisaitl for second with ten playoff goals.

Chris Tanev was in the Stars' lineup for Game 5. Tanev was reportedly seen with a walking boot at the Edmonton airport following Game 4, a strong hint that he might not play. Tanev was at one time a Band-Aid Boy, mainly due to his style of play which involves a ton of shot blocking. Surprisingly, Tanev did not miss a game during his first two seasons in Calgary, but besides that you could usually pencil him in for at least 5-10 games missed per season.

This series has had some swings in momentum. It seemed like many were writing off Edmonton after they went down 2-1 in the series, which seemed a bit surprising to me. Now it's the Stars down in this series. Maybe it's too early to do the same to them? They have a tall order in Game 6 playing a road game with a lively Edmonton crowd on Sunday. Yet for some strange reason, the Stars have been much better on the road than at home during these playoffs.

The Oilers have found another gear since trailing 2-0 in Game 4 pic.twitter.com/1SOSZ3UApW

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) June 1, 2024

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One question that was presented to me recently was how backups perform when thrust into starting roles. I've found a few examples to try to draw some conclusions. Keep in mind that this may not be a complete sample of backups taking over from starters in 2023-24 – just goalie situations that jumped out at me.

My hypothesis before I wrote this is that backup goalies tend to fare okay in the short term, but performance tends to falter over the long term. That may be a function of the team tightening up defensively to help their goaltender knowing the starter isn't there to save them, but getting a little too comfortable in front of the backup goalie once things seem okay. Or perhaps defenses wearing down from an increased focus on blocking shots and other defensive functions.

Dallas

Jake Oettinger out of the lineup December 15 – January 12

Oettinger season stats: 35-14-4, 2.72 GAA, .905 SV%, 51.9 QS%

Scott Wedgewood during that span: 12 GP, 7-3-2, 3.03 GAA, .888 SV%, 50.0 QS%

Wedgewood seems to fit my hypothesis, posting six wins and five quality starts over the first eight games of this period. After that, he seemed to tire under the extended workload, allowing at least four goals over each of the next three starts while failing to earn a win in any of the three games. Overall, there was a dropoff in goaltending stats when Wedgewood was in the net, but perhaps it hasn't been as much as you'd think.

The 31-year-old Wedgewood has been a career backup during his NHL career, having never played 40 games in a season. Oettinger has one of the highest workloads in the league, so Wedgewood tends to play once a week at the most when Oettinger is healthy.

Vancouver

Thatcher Demko out of the lineup March 9 – April 16 (regular season), April 23 – May 20 (playoffs)

Demko season stats: 51 GP, 35-14-2, 2.45 GAA, .917 SV%, 58.8 QS%

Casey DeSmith during that regular season stretch: 11 GP, 4-5-1, 2.79 GAA, .893 SV%, 45.5 QS%

Arturs Silovs during the playoffs: 10 GP, 5-4-1, 2.91 GAA, .898 SV%, 40.0 QS%

Anyone who has watched Canucks games for the past few years has seen how Demko is capable of bailing the Canucks out when their opponent has been carrying the play. It's fair to say that neither DeSmith nor Silovs have given the Canucks Demko-level goaltending while filling in as the starter. However, Silovs in particular had to perform in a higher-pressure playoff environment, also playing seven of those games against a team led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

Of the 11 regular-season games during that stretch, three of DeSmith's games qualified as really bad starts. All three came in the last five games. The only game Silovs allowed five goals in the playoffs was the second-last game. Again, a goalie not used to the workload may eventually tire from it. Regardless, these stats should pour cold water on the idea that the Canucks should trade Demko and make Silovs the starter next season. Silovs has played well enough to be the likely backup to Demko next season, though.

Carolina

Frederik Andersen out of the lineup November 4 – March 7

Andersen season stats: 16 GP, 13-2-0, 1.84 GAA, .932 SV%, 75.0 QS%

Pyotr Kochetkov during that stretch: 29 GP, 16-8-3, 2.23 GAA, .916 SV%, 55.2 QS%

Before jumping on how much of a dropoff that is, consider two things: 1) Andersen's numbers are skewed by his performance after his return (9-1-0, 1.30 GAA, .951 SV%), and 2) Fantasy teams would happily take Kochetkov's numbers as a backup/replacement. Carolina's puck possession strategy seems very favorable for goalies, although Andersen, Kochetkov, and Antti Raanta all struggled during the first month of the season. But yes, the starter posted better numbers than the backup.

Kochetkov was tagged with just one really bad start after February 10. From late March until the end of the season, both goalies took turns starting. There was no evidence that the workload affected him, although he has played 40+ games at various levels over each of the past three seasons.

Seattle

Philipp Grubauer out of the lineup December 9 – February 13

Grubauer season stats: 36 GP, 14-16-2, 2.85 GAA, .899 SV%, 38.9 QS%

Joey Daccord during that stretch: 23 GP, 12-7-4, 2.05 GAA, .933 SV%, 78.3 QS%

This is a case of who really should be the starter in Seattle. Yet it's still Grubauer because you have to follow the money (Grubauer earns $5.9 million per season, while Daccord earns $1.2 million per season). Prior to the 2023-24 season, Daccord have never played more than eight games in an NHL season, so you can't blame the Kraken if they didn't completely trust Daccord. New Kraken coach Dan Bylsma is familiar with Daccord having coached him in 2022-23 in the AHL, where Daccord posted a 26-8-3 record with a 2.38 GAA and .918 SV%.

During Grubauer's absence, Daccord did not show any signs of slowing down. Interestingly enough, once Grubauer returned, Daccord's numbers ballooned to 4-7-2, 2.73 GAA, .898 SV% and 50.0 QS%. Still not all that terrible, but Grubauer still received over 50% of the games and posted slightly better numbers than Daccord after his return (8-7-1, 2.61 GAA, .909 SV%, 55.6 QS%).

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To summarize, there tends to be a lot of worry in the beginning when a starter is injured and the backup takes over. However, it's later into the injury when there should really be concern. That may not be the case in all situations, though.

Having a "handcuff" backup to your starter is an idea, but only for leagues deep enough for the backup to be rostered at all times. Otherwise, adding the best goalie available should be the ideal strategy when your starting goalie is injured. Also consider the potential increase in value for the backup if he will be starting most games for the foreseeable future.

The strength of the team really matters as well, particularly in leagues that count wins. Fantasy scoring systems don't really isolate a goaltender's true ability, so a talented goalie playing for a weak team will likely end up losing value because of the team in front of him.

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