Ramblings: Oilers Force Game 7! Chinakhov Signs, Cogliano Retires, Possible Values of More Players that Could Be Traded (Jun 22)

Ian Gooding

2024-06-22

Can the Edmonton Oilers complete an improbable comeback in the Stanley Cup Final? We will find out on Monday evening in Game 7.

I'll get to the individual player stats shortly, but let's take a look at the list of teams that have tied an NHL playoff series after being down 3-0. Not something that has happened very often, but for some reason half the occurrences have been within the last 15 years.

Only the 1945 Red Wings and the 1942 Maple Leafs erased their 3-0 deficits during a Stanley Cup Final. The ’42 Leafs managed to finish the job and win the Cup.

This series is a microcosm of the Oilers' entire season. They fall into what looks like an insurmountable hole, then they turbojet their way out of it with their top gun in the driver's seat. That's what the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers will be known for if they win the Stanley Cup.

The Panthers have to be stunned right now. Three cracks at winning the cup are gone. Losing a Stanley Cup is disappointing, but letting it slip through your fingers when you had about a 99% chance of winning it at one point has to be crushing. At least there's one more chance, and it's in front of the home crowd. But if you're a diehard Panthers fan or you've placed some major coin on them winning the Cup (or you absolutely hate the Oilers), you'll be sweating bullets on Monday.

Looking at that list of teams above, you may remember that the team that faced the Blackhawks in 2011 was the Canucks. I don't think I've ever been more nervous watching a hockey game than I was watching that Game 7… especially when it went to overtime.  

For the rest of us, Game 7 is what we're here for. One game for all the marbles. This is the game we played in the street or the outdoor rink.

Stats-wise, it was truly a team effort for the Oilers in Game 6. Warren Foegele, Adam Henrique, Zach Hyman, Ryan McLeod, and Darnell Nurse all tallied for the Oilers, with the last two goals empty-netters. Foegele was the only Oiler to register multiple points.

Foegele also assisted on McLeod's goal, giving him points in four consecutive games and five points in his last four games. Foegele has offensive potential with the right linemates, and Leon Draisaitl was his linemate in Game 6. Foegele is a UFA after the season (as are many other Oilers depth forwards), so he may not have the opportunity to play with stronger linemates than he has had in Edmonton. However, he may be able to carve out more icetime on a lesser-scoring team.

Hyman now leads the playoffs with 16 goals. No other player has more than 10 goals during the playoffs. He's now tied for fourth in playoff points, even though he has registered just six assists. If his 54-goal season seems like a fluke, he hasn't shown any kind of dropoff during the playoffs. I think Dobber is in a pool where both the regular season and the playoffs are counted, so he may be interested to learn the following stat:

(Sorry, Leafs fans.)

Evander Kane was listed as a game-time decision, but he was out of the lineup for the third consecutive game.

It took nearly 30 minutes for a Panthers forward to take a shot in this game. There were five shots on goal at that point for Florida, and all were by defensemen. Not exactly a recipe for winning.

Aleksander Barkov scored the Panthers' lone goal. From Games 1-3, Barkov was a combined plus-4. From Games 4-6, Barkov has been a combined minus-6 (minus-2 in each game).

It's also been a tale of two series for Sergei Bobrovsky.

The Panthers had scored another goal in this game, but it was called back after the Oilers challenged for offside. Razor-thin margin.

The Blue Jackets have signed RFA Yegor Chinakhov to a two-year extension worth $2.1 million per season. The 23-year-old Chinakhov, who was a first-round pick in 2020, scored a career-high 16 goals and 29 points in 2023-24. He seems primed for a significant role with the Blue Jackets going forward, particularly if the Jackets will be trading Patrik Laine this offseason (more on him later). Chinakhov is also the first signing under new GM Don Waddell.

Andrew Cogliano has announced his retirement after nearly 1294 NHL games over 17 seasons. Cogliano was never a huge scorer while also being a bit of an anomaly as a player, as his career high of 45 points was from his rookie season of 2007-08. His most notable career accomplishment was playing 830 consecutive games, which was broken up not because of an injury or being healthy scratched but because of a borderline suspension call. Congratulations on a solid career.

In a minor deal, the Devils have acquired prospect forward Adam Beckman from the Wild for Graeme Clarke. Beckman has spent the past three seasons in the AHL, where he has reached at least 30 points each season. Minnesota has a fairly deep prospect pool, so it seems like they can afford to part with Beckman, who has yet to prove that he is ready to take the next step to the NHL. Meanwhile, Clarke has scored at least 25 goals and 55 points in each of his past two AHL seasons. His upside might not be quite as high as Beckman's, but he may be more NHL ready now.

Yesterday I listed three players who could be traded this offseason and what their fantasy value could look like. You can read about them here. Today I have four more players.  

Patrik Laine

Knowing that Laine is still in the NHLPA Player Assistance program, I won't get as technical about him here as the other players. He is simply much more of a wild card than the other players. After scoring at least 30 goals in each of his first three seasons, Laine appeared to be a star in the making. Since then, Laine has not reached 30 goals since the 2018-19 season. Games played have also been an issue, as Laine has missed at least 26 games in each of the past three seasons, and he also suited up for just 18 games in 2023-24.

Adding to the risk for Laine is the fact that he is on the books for two more seasons with an AAV of $8.7 million. Although Laine still has significant upside, the Blue Jackets will likely need to retain salary on a trade and probably won't receive full market value. If I had to guess a team for Laine, it would probably be one that has considerable cap space and probably isn't in a position to contend for a while, thus being patient with Laine. Think of a team like Chicago, Anaheim, San Jose, or Utah. Don't expect Laine to return to form instantly, but he could be in a position to build his way back into a feared sniper.

Note on Laine's status and why he may not be traded immediately:

Mitch Marner

Although the Leafs need a shakeup sooner rather than later, a Marner trade might be easier said than done. Yet if the rumor mill dictated how quickly a trade could happen, Marner would have already packed his bags for a new destination. With Marner on the final year of his contract, the Leafs may want to act as soon as possible so that they can recoup assets before Marner walks to free agency.

Marner has never had an issue with linemates and deployment in Toronto, as he and the core four have basically played together since John Tavares signed with the Leafs in 2018-19. That should not be an issue with a new club either, as Marner has both the scoring pedigree of a consistent point-per-game player as well as the cap hit ($10.9 million) to justify the plum usage. It sounds like Marner's preference is to remain in Toronto, as he also carries the hammer of a full no-movement clause.

If Marner is in fact traded, expect it to be a favorable situation (eg. not a rebuilding team), which should mean his overall fantasy value isn't affected a great deal. The only downside is that he will no longer be feeding passes to perhaps the league's top goal scorer in Auston Matthews, which could cut into his assist total a bit. Marner fell one assist shy of reaching 60 assists for the third consecutive season in 2023-24.

Jakob Chychrun

Chychrun's name has been involved in trade rumors for much of his stint in Ottawa as well as his previous time in Arizona. He has one season left on a contract that pays $4.6 million per season, and he may not fit into the Senators' plans long term since they already have both Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson signed long term at $8 million cap hits. As it stands now, the Senators have decent offensive production, so his value doesn't necessarily take a hit staying in Ottawa. 

If he is traded to the right team, Chychrun could really blossom, though. That right team could be a playoff contender, which he could welcome. Chychrun has played in the playoffs just once in his career, which was the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season. Moreover, he is a career minus-69, which isn't nice. He also set a career high of 16 power-play points in 2023-24 in spite of playing less than 50% of the Sens' available power-play minutes. Time on PP1 could allow him to reach 50 points for the first time in his career.

Trevor Zegras

Zegras might be a forgotten player in next season's drafts. After posting back-to-back 60+ point seasons, Zegras managed just 15 points in 31 games in 2023-24. Injuries slowed Zegras down, but perhaps even he is a player who could benefit from a change of scenery. At least the rumor mill is suggesting he is on the trade block.

Even when playing for a rebuilding Ducks team, Zegras was a fairly productive player. Most of the teams that are interested in him seem to be more in a rebuilding state, which means that he might still be at least a year or two away from reaching his upside. One contending team that is interested in Zegras is the Bruins, who could use a dynamic center for David Pastrnak. Zegras would receive an immediate upgrade if he happens to be traded to Boston. 

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JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
DECLAN CHISHOLM MIN
JAKE WALMAN S.J
KIEFER SHERWOOD VAN

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DUSTIN WOLF CGY
SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CBJ Players
20.6 DMITRI VORONKOV SEAN MONAHAN KIRILL MARCHENKO
18.5 SEAN KURALY JUSTIN DANFORTH ZACHARY ASTON-REESE
18.0 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK KEVIN LABANC ADAM FANTILLI

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