Ramblings: Turcotte Re-Signs, Quick Mock Draft, Possible Values of More Players that Could Be Traded (Jun 23)
Ian Gooding
2024-06-23
The Kings have signed Alex Turcotte to a three-year, $2.325 million contract. The fifth overall pick in 2019, Turcotte has played fewer NHL games (32) than all the players drafted from 1 to 18 that year. He played 20 of those games in 2023-24, scoring four points in 20 games. His AHL scoring rate was much higher, as he had registered 29 points in 35 games for the Ontario Reign. The recent Pierre-Luc Dubois trade (Fantasy Take here) could open up a full-time roster spot for the speedy Turcotte next season.
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The Rutger McGroarty trade watch has begun. According to Murat Ates of The Athletic, it seems that McGroarty views himself as ready to play in the NHL, but the Jets were not willing to promise him that opportunity. Thus, McGroarty believes that he would be better off in another organization due to more immediate playing time. McGroarty is back in the NCAA with the University of Michigan Wolverines, and that decision to stay in college seems to be related to the Jets wanting to bring him along slowly. McGroarty scored 52 points in just 36 games for Michigan in 2023-24, and he could top that next season with an even more dominant effort.
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Each year before the draft, I like to create a mock draft of my own. I typically only pick the first 12 players, as I don't invest the amount time in tracking prospects as the writers at Dobber Prospects. As well, one of my leagues has an entry draft of 12 players, and mock drafting helps me learn more about the top players. I also do this because I like to see how many I get right. (Spoiler alert: usually not many.) And of course, to share with you, the reader.
For a more detailed description of each prospect's attributes, you'll want to head over to Dobber Prospects or purchase your Fantasy Prospects Report
Here goes…
- San Jose Sharks – Macklin Celebrini, C – This seems like the only obvious pick of this draft. Stranger things have happened, but I'd be very surprised if this isn't the team or player at #1.
- Chicago Blackhawks – Ivan Demidov, RW – Not as certain as Celebrini in this spot, but he seems like the next most certain player. If that all made sense. The Blackhawks are taking the best player available here.
- Anaheim Ducks – Artyom Levshunov, D – I've heard that 3-15 is fairly close in this draft, so the pick here is not obvious. It makes sense for the Ducks to draft a defenseman here, so I'll go with Levshunov.
- Columbus Blue Jackets – Cayden Lidstrom, C – Columbus can't resist the opportunity to grab a big center with all the tools and tremendous upside.
- Montreal Canadiens – Tij Iginla, LW – Generating a ton of buzz because of the last name but also because of his natural scoring ability. He'll be gone before his dad's team picks at #9.
- Utah Hockey Club – Sam Dickinson, D – This draft is deep with defensemen, so the Utah franchise makes its first-ever pick a solid all-around d-man.
- Ottawa Senators – Anton Silayev, D – The Sens are deep with defensemen now but not necessarily in the pipeline. Silayev is 6-7 and he can skate.
- Seattle Kraken – Zeev Buium, D – The Kraken continue the run on defensemen because they need one, and one with plenty of offensive upside.
- Calgary Flames – Berkly Catton, C – Some have Catton going higher, but teams tend to draft for size. Tons of offensive upside that could help Flames in their retool.
- New Jersey Devils – Konsta Helenius, C – Solid all-around player with high intangibles. Seems like a safe pick.
- Buffalo Sabres – Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, C – A prospects writer that I know well absolutely raves about this guy, describing him as a "Norwegian Tkachuk brother, but faster."
- Philadelphia Flyers – Zayne Parekh, D – Has the offensive talent to go higher, but there are questions about his defensive ability. He could also fall further than this.
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This week I've written about players potentially on the trade block and what their fantasy value could look like after being traded. You can read Part 1 and Part 2. For Part 3, I've listed two more skaters and two more goalies.
Buchnevich has only one season left on his contract at $5.8 million. On a Blues team that might be thinking retool, Buchnevich seems like an ideal candidate to trade for futures. (I thought this way on one of my keeper league teams, trading Buchnevich away in a multiplayer deal that returned a pick and prospect.)
After scoring at over a point-per-game pace the previous two seasons, Buchnevich regressed in 2023-24, although he also remained healthier. If the Blues continue to regress, then Buchnevich doesn't seem like he'll recapture that point-per-game pace. A trade to a contender with the right linemates could reverse that trajectory, although the strength of teams that would be in the market for Buchnevich seems to vary.
Mikheyev isn't a huge name in the fantasy realm at the moment, but his name is being discussed every single day on Vancouver sports talk shows. With the Canucks rumored to be targeting Jake Guentzel while finding a way to retain Nikita Zadorov and/or Dakota Joshua, Mikheyev's $4.75 million cap hit stands in the way of those efforts. His 31 points in 78 games didn't provide ideal value for his salary, while his single goal over his last 50 games is even more concerning.
It's quite possible that Mikheyev rebounds to some degree in 2024-25, whether that is in Vancouver or another team. He is coming off ACL surgery that ended his 2022-23 season early, and sometimes a player needs a full season to get back on track. That being said, skating didn't seem to be a problem for Mikheyev, but finishing scoring chances clearly was. A fresh start could help Mikheyev rebound from what was a disappointing season personally, but his 50-point pace over his previous two seasons suggests that he is a middle-6 forward at best, regardless of location.
If there were ever a goalie that this type of article should be written for, it's Gibson. As the Ducks began to descend in the standings a few years ago, the thought was that it didn't seem fair that a goalie as skilled as Gibson should be facing as many shots as he was. At this point, we've now normalized Gibson as a sub-.900 SV% and 3.00+ GAA goalie who should be avoided as much as possible in fantasy leagues. Only Arvid Soderblom had a worse GSAA (goals saved above average) than Gibson (-20.73 GSAA) in 2023-24, so starting Gibson was hurting your goaltending the majority of the time.
Goalies in fantasy leagues tend to be a product of the teams in front of them to some degree. That is why Gibson's fantasy value would likely improve if he is moved to a better team. That doesn't mean he will automatically shoot up to the top of the goalie rankings, even if he is traded to a Stanley Cup contender.
Lukas Dostal posted slightly better numbers than Gibson in 2023-24, forcing a timeshare by the end of the season. Dostal seems like the goalie of the future for Anaheim, so it should be no surprise that the Ducks are trying to shop Gibson and his $6.4 million cap hit, which has three more years. Like Gibson, Dostal would also see an increase in fantasy value with an increased workload if Gibson is traded.
Saros is talented enough to provide elite-level goaltending stats on what is effectively a mid-level team. That's why I'll keep this short and suggest that his value won't change much if he is traded to a different team. Perhaps his workload is reduced a bit if he is moved to a different team with a stronger backup. Yet after playing 60+ games for the third consecutive season, Saros saw his ratios decline in 2023-24 (2.86 GAA, .906 SV%), so a workload reduction might not be a bad thing.
The why on a potential Saros trade is simple. Saros has just one season left on his contract, while Yaroslav Askarov is as blue-chip a goaltending prospect as you'll find. It's possible that Askarov is on the big club this season as the backup to learn the ropes. If Askarov looks like the real deal right away, the Preds shop Saros immediately for help with their scoring. That may happen even sooner, such as this summer.
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Next weekend, I'll talk free agency as we head toward July 1. In the meantime, follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads.