Ramblings: Skinner Buyout, Saturday Trades, More Potential Fantasy Value Changes for Free Agents (Jun 30)
Ian Gooding
2024-06-30
Day 2 of the draft took place on Saturday, which featured Rounds 2-7. For a full look at all the picks, go to NHL.com.
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The rumored Jeff Skinner buyout was finally announced on Saturday, as the Sabres will be buying out the remaining three years of his contract. Skinner's output from last season (46 PTS) simply did not justify his $9 million cap hit, so it makes sense for the Sabres to buy him out. Skinner may thrive with a new lease on life after an up-and-down tenure in Buffalo. Skinner's scoring dried up for the first two seasons after signing the contract (37 points in 112 games), but he followed that up with back-to-back 30+ goal seasons.
Skinner should still have value as a top-6 forward without the price tag of a Jake Guentzel. He has averaged at least three shots per game for most of his career. That being said, linemates matter for Skinner. During his infamous 2020-21 season, Skinner had been used with a revolving door of linemates from Sam Reinhart to Riley Sheahan and Curtis Lazar while coach Ralph Krueger completely lacked faith in him. Expectations may not be as high for Skinner on a reduced price tag, so a modest 50-60-point output would be a more reasonable expectation as opposed to his 82 points from 2022-23.
If it seems like Skinner has been in the NHL a long time, it's because he has. His first season was 2010-11, when he was only 18. During that time, Skinner has never appeared in a playoff game between eight seasons in Carolina and six seasons in Buffalo. A team's likelihood of getting into the playoffs might factor into which team he decides to sign with.
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Saturday was busy with some significant deals, which we wrote separate Fantasy Takes about.
Sergachev and Marino to Utah, Moser and Geekie to Tampa Bay
Holtz and Schmid to Vegas, Cotter to New Jersey, Thompson to Washington (thanks to Brennan for this one)
A follow-up to the Utah article: the ex-Coyotes now have four defensemen under contract, as Juuso Valimaki has since signed a two-year contract with a $2 million cap hit. Before Friday, Utah did not have any NHL defensemen signed for next season.
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In what amounted to a salary cap dump with a sweetener, the Blues traded Kevin Hayes and a 2025 second-round pick to Pittsburgh for good old future considerations. Hayes has two more seasons left on a contract with a cap hit of just over $7 million, although the Flyers (who originally agreed to the deal) are still retaining half of the contract.
Hayes scored 13 goals and 29 points for the Blues last season. He should take on a bottom-6 role for the Penguins this coming season and has little fantasy value.
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In an attempt to get the inside track on signing Chris Tanev, the Leafs have acquired the rights to Tanev for Max Ellis and a seventh-round pick in 2026. This is hardly a huge return for Dallas, who most likely figures that the asking price for Tanev is too high.
So, what is that asking price, you ask? Well, Tanev is reported to be looking for a 5-7-year deal, according to Darren Dreger. The Leafs cannot sign him to 8 years at this point, but 5-7 years for an oft-injured defender who has looked like he has been held together with duct tape and glue at various points of his career? Tanev is a top-notch shutdown defender and he'll help any team, but his will to block any shot makes him a constant injury risk. A seven-year deal would end when Tanev turns 41! How many players last until they're 41, let alone those who play the type of game that he does? This is truly silly season.
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The Capitals traded Beck Malenstyn to the Sabres for the 43rd overall pick. No huge fantasy implications, as Malenstyn finished with 21 points in 81 games in his first full NHL season. Interesting stat on Malenstyn: Only Garnet Hathaway finished with more combined hits and blocks among forwards than Malenstyn (343) in 2023-24. Malenstyn could also be considered a streamer in bangers leagues for that reason, as he should provide a physical presence for Buffalo.
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Yesterday I discussed what the top three names on the free agent market might look like on different teams, which you can read about here. Today I am bringing up a few more players – not necessarily because they're the next-tiered group, but because they were more top of mind for me relative to other free agents.
Want to know what Tarasenko's fantasy value would be like if he plays for a different team? You should already know, since he's played for four different teams in the past two seasons! Tarasenko has produced at a 0.72 PTS/GP pace for each of the past two seasons, whether that be for the Blues and Rangers in 2022-23 or the Senators and Panthers in 2023-24. Most recently, Tank finished with 14 PTS in 19 regular-season games with Florida, but slipped to just nine points in 24 games during the playoffs.
The Stanley Cup champions won't be able to fit everyone on their roster, and Tarasenko seems to be the most likely out of the bunch to leave. After being a regular on the top power-play for most of his career (particularly in St. Louis), Tarasenko received below 50 percent of his team's power-play minutes in 2023-24. He'll likely be able to maximize his fantasy value on a team where he's on the top power play and playing with ideal linemates.
Let's file Toffoli under the same category as Tarasenko. Over the past five seasons, Toffoli has played for six different teams. Toffoli is only 32 years old, so he can still take a run at Mike Sillinger! All kidding aside, Toffoli seems to be able to score no matter what team he plays for, having scored at least 30 goals in back-to-back seasons.
Teams can maximize Toffoli's value by giving him a spot on the top power play. It's no coincidence that his goal scoring has increased over the past four seasons as his power-play usage has risen above the 50% threshold. Toffoli has used his quick release to reach double-digit numbers for power-play goals in each of the past two seasons. Having ideal linemates will also be key, since he generally does not drive play himself.
It really depends where Montour signs. Let's throw away the outlier 73-point season and treat Montour as more of a 40-50-point pace guy. Most teams have a defenseman with enough offensive upside to run their power play. The question is whether Montour is better or worse than that existing option.
Montour seemed better than what was available in Florida and he was on that top power play for much of the past two seasons. Since he managed just two power-play points during Florida's entire playoff run, Montour was moved off the top power play in favor of Oliver Ekman-Larsson during the final. Not much to read into that, and a team that signs him should obviously look at that need. Montour had some decent numbers in Anaheim, but his stats in Buffalo left a lot to be desired. So the strength of the team matters here.
Lindholm's scoring has been on the decline over the past two seasons to the point that he should no longer be in the 1C discussion. He's a capable 2C who can thrive in a shutdown role, so he should still be coveted by many teams. The Canucks already have Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller up the middle, so it doesn't make sense for them to sign Lindholm to his asking price if they still have needs to fill on the wing and defense.
Lindholm's career season of 82 points in 82 games in 2021-22 was mainly on a line with Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. If he can find that combination of linemates again, then he can at least rebound from his 44-point campaign in 2023-24. He could stand for some better puck luck (8.7 SH%, 1.8 PTS/60), but don't expect him to score at a point-per-game level, no matter what the situation. A situation like Boston would be ideal, since he could slot in as their top center while feeding passes to David Pastrnak.
Bertuzzi maximized his value two seasons ago in Detroit, where he produced 62 points in 68 games. That season, he spent more even-strength minutes with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond than any other unit. In addition, he skated nearly 20 minutes per game while regularly playing on the top power play. Conversely, his power-play time was more sporadic in Toronto, but he couldn't have asked for better even-strength linemates. The opportunity was there for the taking to some degree, but he couldn't seem to take advantage of it. It's difficult to know what the ideal situation is for Bertuzzi as he enters free agency.
Interestingly enough, Alex has Bertuzzi ahead of both Jake DeBrusk and Max Domi in his Free Agency Salary Projections, earning over $1 million per season more than both. All finished with similar point production in 2023-24, although Bertuzzi has the slightly higher point-per-game output (0.68 PTS/GP) over Domi (0.61 PTS/GP) and DeBrusk (0.60 PTS/GP) over the past three seasons (Frozen Tools Compare Players). Dobber might be on to something, as inquiring teams might be wise to target DeBrusk or Domi for slightly less than Band-Aid Boy Bertuzzi.
I'll throw in Trouba because he is a potential trade candidate. It's no secret that Trouba's level of play declined this season, particularly in the playoffs. He may be looking at a decline in icetime if he stays with the Rangers, while a new team might think they can get him back on track. That matters in fantasy leagues because his peripherals are based on volume.
Trouba was a top-10 player in combined hits and blocks (375) and combined penalty minutes, hits, and blocks (448). He was just outside the top 10 in combined shots, hits, and blocks (504). These totals were in spite of Trouba missing 13 games, and he averaged just over 21 minutes in icetime. If Trouba becomes an 18-minute defenseman, he is looking at roughly a 15% drop in each of those categories. Regardless of what happens, I'm less bullish on drafting the 30-year-old d-man in my multicategory leagues this season.
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