July 1^st was a crazy day, and Brennan, Mike, and Ian did an amazing job with the non-stop coverage. I had a bunch of family time I was busy with, on top of helping my brother moving. The guys were nice enough to save me the Nashville moves for when I had some time though, so that's the one write up I did on the day.

You can find those thoughts here, but one thing it didn't cover was the subsequent re-signing of Victor Hedman in Tampa. A lot of people are saying they gave the exact $8 million to Hedman instead of Steven Stamkos, and they're drawing conclusions from that. In reality though, they took an extra million and gave it to Jake Guentzel this year. Hedman’s new deal doesn’t kick in until next year, so him and Stamkos were not fighting for money from the same pie. Hedman’s $8 million is actually going to be a lower cap percentage than he’s at this year, so he’s just keeping his own slice of the pie. It was an either-or with Stammer or Guentzel, and Hedman has nothing to do with it.

Stamkos makes his return to Tampa as a Predator on Oct 28^th. Pencil him down for two goals and an assist.

I know a lot of people don't like plus-minus as a stat much anymore, but it can be telling over the sample size of a season when used relative to teammates. Stamkos was worst on the team with a minus-21 mark, much worse than most of his frequent line-mates. The Bolts also got rid of Mikhail Sergachev, Tanner Jeannot, Calvin De Haan, Alex Barre-Boulet, Tyler Motte, Matt Dumba, who mark seven of the bottom ten on the team in the stat. They are tightening up as an insulation measure for the current core.

This is all very good news for Andrei Vasilevskiy next year by the way.

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Looking at the rest of the free agent signings from the first two days of free agency, there were over 230 contracts signed in total if you include the noteworthy re-signings on June 30^th as well, so there's a lot to sift through.

I was happy to see that I called the landing spot for Teuvo Teravainen.

31) Teuvo Teravainen – LW (UFA – $3.97M)
A few slower years for TT are mainly the result of him not getting the same PP deployment as his career-high 70+ point years. For a team that could use some PP help, he might be just the right guy at a reasonable price. Maybe a CHI return?

— Alex MacLean (@alexdmaclean) June 14, 2024

I think the Blackhawks overpaid him a bit, but then again who haven't they overpaid over the last two years – that seems to be the whole idea. I do think he will be a great fit with Bedard, especially on the power play. Unfortunately for Lukas Reichel, he likely fills the exact role that Reichel would like to grow into. Three years isn't forever, but it's probably a year or two longer than Reichel owners would really like to see.

Here are my top- and bottom-five signings from the past few days.

Top five:

Shane Pinto C, Ottawa

Two years at $3.75 million

The most recent signing is a great one in my eyes because it's something the Senators had to do on a shorter-term deal – they already have too much term up the middle locked up in uncertainty with Josh Norris – and they managed to keep the AAV lower than expected. I was wondering whether Pinto might cost as much as five million, so to have him at under $4 million is a win that Ottawa needs, especially after giving away Mathieu Joseph and Jakob Chychrun.

Jonathan Marchessault RW, Nashville

Five years at $5.5 million

Not even the biggest name signed by Nashville, but being a year younger than Stamkos while also being a recent 40-goal scorer. Usually that kind of production would cost a lot more, and with Marchy's style of play, he should be able to keep up his production for at least a few years. The last year on the contract might be a burden, but if only one year out of five is a miss in free agency, and the other four are bargains, that's worthwhile in free agency.

Anthony Duclair RW, New York Islanders

Four years at $3.5 million

The Islanders have their top-line pretty much set at this point, but their middle-six gets a big boost with Duclair who finished last year with 15 points in 17 games with Tampa Bay. It was a whole lot better than the 27 points in 56 games with San Jose. He will finish somewhere between those two paces with the Isles. If it's close to the Tampa pace then it's absolute robbery, and worst case it comes out as a fair deal.

Jeff Skinner LW, Edmonton

One year at $3.0 million

This just seems like such a fun fit, with so little risk. Skinner is one year removed from an 82-point season, and now gets to play a full season alongside either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid. He only had 46 points in 74 games last season, but if that's an absolute floor while playing middle-six minutes with Buffalo, then top-six with Edmonton has to be at least 60 points, with upside for 90 if he can click on the power play.

Juraj Slafkovsky RW, Montreal

Eight years at $7.6 million

This isn't a free-agent signing so it's maybe cheating a little, but the Canadiens extending Slafkovsky for less than they're paying Cole Caufield, covering Slaf's entire prime as a player who looks to be growing his game exponentially is a scary consideration. He's going to be worth that money this year while he is still playing out his entry level deal, and then next year when the cap rises again, Slaf is going to be underpaid starting game one of that new deal. Jack Hughes has my vote for best contract in the NHL right now, but this might become number two in very short order.

Bottom-five:

I'm not going to dwell on these as long and sow as much negativity, but the general thinking is that the downside on these deals massively out-weights the upside.

Sean Durzi D, Utah

Four years at $6.0 million

Locking up a 24-year-old defenceman who has paced for over 40-points the last two years while playing top-pairing minutes last season would be tough to mess up, but by putting aa higher cap hit on this deal with shorter term, Utah doesn't win here regardless of how Durzi produces.

Jason Zucker LW, Buffalo

One year at $5.0 million

The Sabres are currently $20 million under the cap, and are paying Zucker and his 32 points last year $5 million. Add that to the $1.4 million from Jeff Skinner's buyout that counts against the cap, and two-thirds of Skinner's salary is being pair for probably less than two-thirds of Skinner's production. It makes the whole buyout make zero sense when they could have just waiting until next summer and had it hurt a lot less.

Brady Skjei D, Carolina

Seven years at 7.0 million

From a fantasy and general free agent point of view, I have aa very tough time giving non-elite players term past four or five years, and overpaying for career seasons. That's what this deal feels like, and while Skjei might be good, he's not elite. I would be surprised to get more than one season of 40+ points out of him in Nashville.

Cam Talbot G, Detroit

Two years at $2.5 million

For a goalie who turns 37 on Friday, two years even feels like aa lot, especially when it seems like the workload really wore on Talbot as last season progressed. His overall numbers look good, but take away his first quarter of the season and he's a .500 goalie with a 2.70 GAA and a .907 save percentage. Pretty average, and not what an average team needs in order to make a jump in the standings.

Chandler Stephenson C, Seattle

Seven years at $6.25 million

This feels like the forward version of Skjei, except Stephenson's best seasons came from playing alongside Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, which was also not even last year. He's a year removed from that now, and has shown he is probably just a 50-point centre without them. Seattle does not have anyone of their caliber (though I do have tons of time for Matty Beniers and Jared McCann). Hopefully he clicks here, because if not this one could get ugly fast.

Oh, and Chris Tanev‘s deal is also terrible, but the Leafs will find some way to turn it into a good thing because of the LTIR space they can play with, so it doesn’t really matter.

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With the top and bottom list done, we can take a peak at who else is left. Vladimir Tarasenko is definitely the most noteworthy name still unsigned, but there are a few other players that could be under-the radar acquisitions at a reasonable price now. Jack Roslovic, Daniel Sprong, Max Pacioretty, and Tyson Barrie seem to round out the rest of the names that could have fantasy relevance in standard leagues if they find the right fit. We'll have some thoughts for you once these guys actually put a pen to paper.

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The NHL released their schedule for the upcoming season, which runs from Friday October 4^th in Prague, to Thursday April 17^th, where interestingly only Eastern Conference teams are playing. This likely sets up the Western Conference to begin the first round of the playoffs on Saturday April 19^th with two or three matchups.  

I haven't had a chance to really dive into and analyze the schedule, but will have some more research into it once I have it transferred from the Frozentools schedule planner (which is already updated) to my own spreadsheet, where I can analyze it from a few different angles, especially with Fantasy H2H leagues in mind.

Andrew Santillo also does an excellent breakdown of the schedule including back to backs, off nights, and more for the Fantasy guide. You can pre-order that here.

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I remember seeing a tweet back in the spring about Nikita Gusev possibly considering another NHL attempt, and didn't think much of it at the time. Now, however…

Gusev is not currently under contract in the KHL, coming off a record-setting 89-point season https://t.co/fuP7LtbniV

— Devils Hockey Enjoyer (@chrisf0njd) July 2, 2024

The Devils have apparently clarified that he is "just in town training" but sometimes coincidences have a little bit more to them. Regardless of whether it's with the Devils or another NHL squad, there's a significant chance that we see NHL games from Gusev again this season.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.