Ramblings: Crosby’s New Contract; Unger-Sorum; Boqvists in Florida; RFAs up for Arbitration & More (Jul 10)
Alexander MacLean
2024-07-10
We may have a Sidney Crosby extension announced very soon. With his next contract, Crosby would have a chance to pass Nicklas Lindstrom for the most games played with one single franchise (he's about four seasons back of that title). He's also chasing down Mario Lemieux's franchise record for points. Even now we can say that him and Mario are the best Penguins ever, and Crosby has been one of the biggest cornerstones for a single franchise ever. The record would just add the cherry on top.
From reading what Rob Rossi and Elliotte Friedman have been saying, it sounds like the extension might be a three-year deal around a $10M cap hit. With the rising cap giving a bit more space, I wonder if it’s three years at $10.87 million.
Kyle Dubas did work the “93” into Marner’s cap hit (before the base salary was forced up and changed his final cap hit number), and Dubas was also Lou Lamoriello’s right-hand man when Auston Matthews got his “34” into his cap hit too.
Crosby deserves whatever the Penguins can afford to pay him, and more. He’s coming off a 94-point season, and his sixth straight season pacing for over 90 points. At this rate, there’s no reason he can’t keep up his point-per-game ways until he’s 40.
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Well, it happened. Capfriendly has gone dark. After being purchased by the Capitals, it was an inevitability that as soon as the sale closed (it was said that could be as early as July 5th) the site would no longer be accessible to the public. It is a big loss for the public sphere, as CapFriendly had reached the point of being very user friendly, while also having just about any salary related tool, answer, or statistic that someone could want.
There will be others that fill the space, and once the technology has been created once and the need has been established, it will take any replacement site much less time to fill the void than its predecessor did. I'm currently getting used to the PuckPedia site, and it seems like they're working hard to make all the upgrades people are requesting.
As another option, I know Eric Daoust and Dobber are working hard behind the scenes to sort out where Frozentools can pull the salary cap data from, as it also has cap hit, AAV, and salary listed for the remaining length of each player's contract. On top of that it's the best site for player data.
I'm also very curious to see what this web infrastructure and personnel expertise is worth to an NHL team once the sale details are released.
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On the topic of contracts, there are still some UFAs, and a handful of top RFAs left, but I don't think there will be many surprises left in those groups.
Looking at the players who filed for arbitration is where we might still find some intrigue. Here's the list:
This is a fairly normal size, as last year there were 22 who filed, with only three of them actually going the full length through to the arbitration award. Two of those three were goalies, which doesn't bode as well for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen owners hoping for a quick resolution this year. On the positive side of things, both goalies last year received about $3.5 million on their one-year arbitration awards, and had more experience and better percentage numbers than what UPL put up this past season. If UPL is angling for more than $3.5M through arbitration, he's going to have a tough time fighting for it.
It might be better for UPL to sign longer term now, but the Sabres might not necessarily want to go that many years with him, as they also have Devon Levi who is the real gem of the pipeline. With Levi likely being primed to take over a full-time volume starter role in a few years, the Sabres won't want to have a $5 million AAV tied up in UPL all the way to 2030 or beyond. It does seem like arbitration to kick the can down the road might be the most likely outcome here.
J.J. Moser and Spencer Stastney seem like two of the other names on the list most likely to get to arbitration, as their rosters are crowded, and the teams are facing some cap pressure. Moser will be an especially interesting case, as he was just traded for, so he won't have a great rapport with the team yet. Tough way to start, move in and have your new team tell you how you're not worth much.
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The Utah Coyotes Whatevers signed Barrett Hayton to a two-year deal worth $2.65 million per season. Hayton struggled last year with injuries, but even then, someone who plays with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz as their most common linemate should have more than 10 points in 33 games.
Hayton is right at this breakout threshold, and hopefully has had a healthy summer to train and be ready. His underlying numbers are a little concerning, especially the low IPP, but some of that is also due to luck, as well as trying to keep up with vastly superior linemates. A jump back to a 45-point pace would be excellent for him and shouldn't be surprising at all.
One strange note with Hayton, is that after being a player who provided a hit per game the first few years of his career, he dropped off to one hit every two games this past season. The full view doesn't tell the full story though, as there were only six hits in his first 25 games, with the other 11 coming in his final eight – which is also the eight games where four of his 10 points came from. To me that says that he was playing through injuries that were hindering his performance – and especially his physical impact – but then started to feel better by the end of the year. If he comes back healthy, there's no reason he points shouldn't pick back up, and the underlying hint will be the hit numbers.
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If you're looking for an under-the-radar prospect that's closer to NHL action and has some upside, this might be a name for you:
That being said, the NHL roster is filling up, and Felix Unger-Sorum will need to contend with the likes of Jackson Blake and Bradly Nadeau as well, who both got a trial game at the end of last season as well.
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I was surprised to see that former eighth overall pick Adam Boqvist could only get a league-minimum deal, as he signed for one year with Florida yesterday. Signing for the defending champs to be in the same organization that signed his brother a week ago probably had something to do with the concession on the contract amount though.
He paced for 40 points as recently as 2022-23, but struggled mightily last season playing higher up the lineup with Zach Werenski. In a more sheltered role alongside a more defensively inclined partner, Boqvist could thrive again. His power play IPP is also very high, which is a good indication that he could help fill the power play void left by Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson departing (most likely on the second unit).
Unfortunately for Boqvist, he is the eighth defenceman signed to a one-way deal for the Panthers, who also have Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling ahead in the PP pecking order.
Up front, I do also very much like Jesper Boqvist as a versatile player for the Panthers. In a pinch he can play wing or centre anywhere in the bottom-nine. He's not going to overload the scoresheet but can be a 40-point player in the right role while still taking a lot of minutes in his own end.
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It might be worth keeping an eye on Pittsburgh's early picks for the next few years, as Wes Clark's recent selections of Matthew Knies, Fraser Minten, and Easton Cowan in Toronto have provided excellent early returns.
The 2024 draft for the Leafs was not panned in a positive light, but like any draft class we'll have to wait and see how the players develop.
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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.