Ramblings: Laine Cleared to Return, Blocked Shots Contributors (Jul 27)
Ian Gooding
2024-07-27
Patrik Laine has officially been cleared to return from the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. This is good news because Laine was in the program for mental health reasons, and it seems like he is well enough to resume his career. What this also means is that the Blue Jackets are now free to trade him.
Laine hasn't necessarily been a bust for the Blue Jackets, as it might seem. He has produced at a near point-per-game level during his first two full seasons in Columbus (108 points in 111 games). However, he has not clicked at all with Johnny Gaudreau. Since the Jackets signed Gaudreau two offseasons ago, Gaudreau has had the primary assist on only six of Laine's 28 goals even though the two have regularly been linemates at even strength and on the power play. Now the Jackets have also signed Gaudreau's former Calgary linemate in Sean Monahan, hoping that will ignite the offense.
If and when the Jackets trade Laine, don't expect them to receive a whole lot in return. Laine currently has an $8.7 million cap hit for two more seasons, which is not easy to move. A team in a rebuilding state may be able to make that work under their salary cap, but most teams have already solidified their rosters for the coming season and are simply looking for depth options. The Blue Jackets could consider retaining salary to make a trade work. There's still plenty of time for a deal to happen, but I have my doubts that one will be completed this offseason.
The Blue Jackets also made news earlier in the week, hiring Dean Evason to be their new head coach. Evason is an accountable, passionate, and perhaps even intense coach, which is something the Jackets may have been lacking from recent previous head coaches (no, I don't mean John Tortorella). It will be interesting to see how scorers that have seen better days like Laine and Gaudreau respond to that. Evason seemed to get the most out of the Minnesota roster for much of the time that he was there.
–
Rafael Harvey-Pinard underwent surgery for a broken leg on Thursday. The expected recovery is four months, meaning that he will miss training camp and likely at least the first month of the season. Harvey-Pinard registered just 10 points in 45 games in 2023-24, but he showed some promise the season before with 20 points in 34 games. He will likely slot in as a bottom-6 forward for the Habs once he returns, with possible upside to move up the lineup.
–
The Sharks have signed Thomas Bordeleau to a one-year, two-way contract. Bordeleau split 2023-24 between the Sharks and their AHL affiliate the Barracuda, finishing with 11 points in 27 games at the NHL level. He could make the Sharks out of training camp, but the two-way contract means that nothing is guaranteed for an NHL spot.
For more player news, check out the Frozen Tools news feed.
–
The Dobber Hockey 2024-25 Fantasy Guide will be available for download on Monday, as confirmed by Dobber on X. Won't be long now!
A couple weeks ago I mentioned that I completed the writeups for players on each team that are strong contributors to the hits category, which you can read about here. Because many leagues that count hits also count blocked shots, I'll follow up with some discussion on the blocked shots category.
A few observations about blocked shots in terms of what to look out for:
Defensemen typically lead in blocked shots, as they are more frequently in positions to block shots. The top 100 players in blocked shots in 2023-24 were all defensemen. The only forwards to block more than 100 shots in 2023-24 were Ryan Poehling (105 BKS) and Beck Malenstyn (103 BKS). Neither of these forwards has a ton of value in scoring leagues.
Players with high average time on ice (TOI) are more likely to accumulate blocked shots. Of the top 15 blocked shots leaders, 11 averaged at least 20 minutes of icetime per game. Of those players, John Carlson and Mike Matheson both averaged over 25 minutes per game. The exception is Nick Seeler, who finished fifth with 205 blocked shots even though he averaged just under 17 minutes per game.
Penalty-killing time also increases opportunities for blocked shots, although it may not always play out that way. The Anaheim Ducks led the league in shorthanded time in 2023-24, averaging over six minutes per game killing penalties. Interestingly enough, no Anaheim player finished in the top 30 in blocked shots. Conversely, the New York Islanders averaged the least amount of penalty-killing time at just over four minutes per game. Yet two Islanders (Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov) finished in the top 30 in blocked shots. The Isles actually led the league as a team with 1552 blocked shots.
Players on teams that play a more defensive style or spend more time in their defensive zone tend to have higher blocked shot numbers. Maybe that Islanders stat above makes sense. It shouldn't be a surprise if you've watched them for any length of time.
Frequent shot blockers are at a higher risk of injury due to the nature of blocking shots. Just ask Chris Tanev, who has played in at least 70 games in a season just twice in the last seven non-shortened seasons. Tanev missed only seven games in 2023-24, so he finished with the league's third-highest blocked shot total (207 BKS) in 2023-24. Having signed him to a six-year contract this offseason, the Leafs are hoping that Tanev will be able to keep blocking shots until he's 40! Only three players have blocked more shots than Tanev since the 2018-19 season.
Alec Martinez is consistently among the top shot blockers in the league, having blocked more shots than any other player since the 2015-16 season (1452 BKS). However, blocking shots is starting to take a toll, as he has averaged just 53 games per season over the last three seasons. Martinez's icetime has also dipped below 20 minutes per game in each of the last three seasons. The fact that he is now 36 years of age might also factor into some reduced blocked shots totals, although he still blocks shots at a high rate when he is on the ice (9.5 BKS/60).
Ideally, find players who can contribute offensively as well, providing a more well-rounded fantasy option. Tanev and Martinez aren't huge offensive options. Colton Parayko, who led the league with 218 blocked shots, hasn't turned out that way even with a big shot that some thought would lead him to major fantasy success. Jacob Trouba, who has posted similar offensive numbers to Parayko, provides better hit totals and slightly better shot totals, which is why he has been so valuable in multicat leagues. However, Trouba and Parayko (and Tanev and Martinez, for that matter) have all turned 30. Trouba is in danger of reduced icetime this coming season and may even be traded.
Long term, it might be better to find a youthful option that can block shots. That player might be Moritz Seider, who finished second with 213 blocked shots. Seider also provides offense with at least 40 points in each of his three NHL seasons. He is a player to absolutely target in leagues that count blocked shots.
Here are some other top-30 shot blockers who are under the age of 30: Matt Roy, Mario Ferraro, Rasmus Andersson, Noah Dobson, Kaiden Guhle, Cam York, Darnell Nurse, Alexander Romanov, Jake Middleton, Sean Durzi, and Marcus Pettersson. Some of these players will also provide good to great offensive totals.
Be sure to check your scoring system to determine how much blocked shots matter relative to other categories. If you are awarded points for every blocked shot, how much is each worth relative to goals and assists? Probably not as much, but how valuable is a top shot blocker relative to other players? If blocked shots is a head-to-head category, then you'll need to target at least a few players that can block shots. By the way, I don't believe in punting a category unless there are a lot of other categories in your league or it means you can gain a substantial advantage in every other category.
–
Follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads.