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It has been a week since I've had a Ramblings and there have been a lot of extensions in that time. Let's take a look at some young players that got their RFA contracts recently.

The Montreal Canadiens wrapped up their remaining RFAs by signing both Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron. Both got two-year extensions with Xhekaj earning $1.3M per season and Barron getting $1.15M. The former has 23 points, 284 hits, and 182 PIMs in 95 career regular season games while the latter has 30 points, 102 blocks, and 115 hits in 94 career games.

Before getting to the individuals, one thing this should highlight is the slew of left-handed defencemen that Montreal has. While both David Reinbacher and Logan Mailloux are right-handed shots in the system, it seems likely at least one will start the season in the AHL, if not both. That isn't to say they won't work their way up as the season wears on, but the only proven right-hand shots guaranteed to be on the roster in October are Barron and David Savard. All of Xhekaj, Mike Matheson, Jordan Harris, Kaiden Guhle (more on him in a second), Lane Hutson, and Jayden Struble are left-hand shots. Let's work out the depth chart (these won't necessarily be the pairings, we're just sizing up the roster):

Guhle – Savard

Matheson – Barron

??? – ???

???

That makes two lineup spots, and three NHL spots, for Xhekaj, Harris, Hutson, and Struble, let alone Mailloux and Reinbacher. If Mailloux makes the roster out of the gate by virtue of being a much-needed right-hand shot, there is one lineup spot left for Xhekaj, Harris, Hutson, and Struble. Like many fantasy hockey fanatics that double as a Montreal fan, I have a lot of belief that Hutson will be an excellent defenceman in the NHL, but there is a lot of competition for that lineup spot. The team does seem to like Xhekaj, so we'll probably see some sort of rotation of Barron, Xhekaj, Hutson, and Mailloux where one is sitting out, or one is the seventh defenceman in an 11/7 lineup, with the others in the AHL. In fact, I suspect we'll see Montreal run a lot of 11/7 lineups this season. Huston is knocking on the door, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him take over the power play from Matheson perhaps in, say, February, but I don't think he's necessarily in line for a Luke Hughes-like fantasy season. In fact, while perusing the 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Guide, the games-played projection for Hutson is 39 games. Playing roughly a half-season in the NHL sounds right to me.

If Hutson plays half a season, and both Savard and Matheson are trade-deadline candidates, it seems as if it's a good bet that Xhekaj plays close to a full season. If he can do that, even playing 16-17 minutes a night, the multi-cat upside is huge. We are talking maybe 125 PIMs, close to 100 blocks, and over 200 hits. He is worth paying very close attention to in those formats, especially if it's a cap league.

There is some production upside for Barron. If Hutson starts in the AHL, Barron is a reasonable bet to run the second power play unit, at least early on. Add that with around 19 minutes a game in ice time, and 30 points with triple-digit hits and blocks is in play. That is about his projection in the guide, so there's value here in cap league formats. If there is ever an injury to Matheson and Huston isn't pushed to PP1, Barron's value could rise immensely. He is someone to keep in mind in deeper formats.

Finally, Montreal signed Guhle to a six-year extension worth $5.55M per season. It is an extension that kicks in for 2025-26, so fantasy managers in keeper/dynasty leagues will still have another year of cheap peripheral production. The concern is 14 months from now. With all the young blue liners, Guhle will be relied on for his defensive play, so the blocks and hits should be there, but the shots, points, and power play production may not. If he can be a 180-block, 130-hit guy, that has value, but the question is whether it's enough value to make up for 30-point upside with low triple-digit shot totals. This extension may price him out of cap formats a year from now, but luckily for keeper/dynasty owners, they have a year to decide.

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Columbus signed both Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko to three-year extensions with the former garnering a $1.8M cap hit and the latter a $3.85M cap hit. Johnson doesn't turn 22 years old until October so he could just be getting his feet under him, but the fifth overall pick from 2021 has yet to make his mark in the NHL with 59 points in 130 games while skating 14 minutes a night. Marchenko, however, has 44 goals and 324 shots in 137 career games and turned 24 years old a couple weeks ago. He should really be hitting his stride now.

Johnson is in a bit of a precarious fantasy position. All of Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Boone Jenner, Adam Fantilli, and Marchenko should be ahead of him in terms of ice time. The team seems to like Cole Sillinger, Yegor Chinakhov just had a breakout-ish season, and Dmitri Voronkov looks to be on the cusp of being a very good down-low offensive player. All that doesn't include the possibility of Patrik Laine not being traded, or him being traded for a player that would exceed Johnson on the roster.  

Right now, at best, Johnson is probably the number-6 forward on the depth chart and may very well be in the third-line range. Columbus has a new coach, but last season, being somewhere in that range meant 25%-27% of available ice time, or roughly 15-16 minutes a game. In the NHL last season, only five forwards skated 16 minutes or less per game and cracked the 50-point mark. The only player who posted more than 60 was Nikolaj Ehlers with 61 points. In other words, expecting more than 50 points from Johnson is probably expecting too much. If Johnson puts up 45 points, 10 PPPs, 130 shots, and next-to-nothing in hits, PIMs, and blocks, how valuable is he really in cap league formats? It seems close to replacement level to me. Unless he really shows out, it'll be hard for him to have much value outside of very deep formats. (For the record, the Dobber Guide has him with 38 points in 79 games.)

Marchenko is the far more interesting player, especially if Laine is traded. That would likely make Marchenko the shoot-first guy on the power play, and it's something that plays to his skills. This is a guy with 30-goals, 220-shots, 20 PPPs, and 60 hits in his tool bag, he just needs the right role to do it. There is also the question of him earning 30%-33% of the ice time as a top guy rather than the 27% he was last season. He can be a 30-goal, 55-point guy if he's getting 18 minutes a night with top PP time, it's just a question if he gets it and holds onto it. It will depend on the format and scoring, but it seems like it'll be hard to rely on him being a top-150 fantasy option, and I'm not sure he has top-75 fantasy upside right now, so where his ADP lands will determine whether he's a draft value or a draft dodge.

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Martin Necas got his contract from Carolina, being signed for two years at $6.5M per season. It gives him one final kick at the can to really establish himself as a reliable top-line producer before he hits unrestricted free agency.

With both Jake Guentzel and Teuvo Teravainen moving on, it seems there's a spot for Necas on the top power play unit alongside Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Seth Jarvis. However, we have seen guys like Stefan Noesen and Michael Bunting earn top power play time over the last couple of seasons, which indicates to me we can't scribble in Necas for 75 games on the top PP unit. It seems likely that guys like Jack Drury and Jordan Martinook, or even Jack Roslovic or Jesperi Kotkaniemi, earn some top PP time at different points of the season. It seems unlikely it'll be at the expense of Aho or Jarvis, and probably not Svechnikov, so Necas has a precarious hold on that fourth power play spot.

In the last three seasons, Necas has been outside the top-4 PP Carolina forwards twice, both in 2021-22 and 2023-24. In those seasons, he averaged 49 points per 82 games. In the one season he was a top PP regular, he managed 71 points in 82 games. Whether he holds onto that top PP role is the difference between a top-100 fantasy option and a top-200 fantasy option, and that is a large gap in value. He has the inside track to those prime offensive minutes, but there are replacements in the side-view mirror that are closer than they appear.

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The big signing was the eight-year extension from Minnesota to defenceman Brock Faber. Here is where we must differentiate between fantasy upside and real-life upside.

In real life, Faber will probably be worth it. I'm not as sold as others, but there is another year of him on his ELC for that to sort itself out. If he can carry a pairing in 2024-25, then he should be fine. If he can't, well, that's when the worries start.

One issue in fantasy is role. As long as Faber is running the top power play, he can probably pay off that price tag, or come close to it. If he isn't running the power play, then he won't. The other issue is timing because Faber's first season of his new deal in 2025-26 is Kirill Kaprizov's last season on his current one. There isn't reason to believe Kaprizov will leave, but there is always the chance he does, so there is a world where Faber is A) the top PP defenceman in two years and B) on a power play that will then be without Kaprizov. The nice thing is that with his ELC still going on, fantasy managers have a year to help figure out what he is and will be, but I am not anywhere near confident that he'll be worth $8.5M per season in cap leagues in two years' time.

That leaves one season where he's a great value (2024-25) and one season where his upside is just paying off his price tag (2025-26). After that, it's a big question mark, so I'm not sure if Faber will ever have more value in cap leagues than he does right now. Something to keep in mind.

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Lastly, Calgary signed hopeful goalie of the future Dustin Wolf for two years. Without much competition around, just being competent could mean 50 starts as soon as 2024-25. The big question is the quality of the team in front of him.

Last season, Calgary was in the middle of the league by shots and high-danger shot attempts against per 60 minutes. In the second half of the season, they traded Chris Tanev, Elias Lindholm, and Noah Hanifin, and while there are good, young players to replace them, whether they can bring the same quality of defensive play is unlikely. If Calgary's rebuild sees them as a bottom-third defensive team without a high-end offence, those 50 starts from Wolf might not be worth a lot. Jacob Markstrom had a good season last year behind what should be a better team than the 2024-25 edition and, depending on format and scoring, was probably a top-20 (ish) goalie. Wolf might be fine as a third goalie in 12-team leagues, but I'm not sure there's a lot to wish for beyond that.