The DobberHockey Fantasy Guide is now available for download! It's the same guide that you've come to know and love every year, which includes player projections for scoring and peripheral categories in PDF form by team and by Excel list. Included are sleepers, draft review, Calder nominees, stock drops, goalies, and much more.

In addition, the Dobber 2024-25 projections are now in the Fantasy Hockey Geek system! I've already tested the Geek rankings for one of my teams, and they totally work. My first order of business was picking out…

… bubble keepers for Bubble Keeper Week, which will begin with tomorrow's Ramblings. In case you're not familiar with it, our writers will share players that are on the bubble on their various keeper teams. I have a few interesting names picked out already, which I'll start sharing with you tomorrow. Since August feels like the absolutely most dead period for any NHL news, this is the perfect time for Bubble Keeper Week. We've had it in July in previous years.  

The Offseason Fantasy Grades articles for each team have begun. You can now read up on Anaheim, Boston, Buffalo, and Calgary. Follow along at this link. I covered the Sabres and will have an article written for Colorado in a few days. Big thanks to all the writers who are chipping in with articles.

It might be the middle of summer, but there's lots happening here at DobberHockey.

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The Avalanche have signed Matthew Phillips to a one-year, two-way contract. Phillips has racked up big numbers at both the WHL and AHL level, but he has been unable to secure a regular NHL roster spot in three other organizations (Calgary, Washington, Pittsburgh). The good news is that the Avalanche have a shortage of forwards signed to NHL contracts once factoring in the absence of Valeri Nichushkin (Player Assistance Program) and possible continued absence of Gabriel Landeskog (knee surgery). The Avalanche are also tight against the cap, which limits what they can do before the season starts before they can move anyone to LTIR. This is a roster that Phillips could crack early in the season and make an impression, although at age 26 he is running out of time.

Earlier this week, the Avalanche also signed Oliver Kylington. I'll mention this in the upcoming Offseason Fantasy Grades article for Colorado, but the Avs have built up some depth on the blueline. This is a team that has had its share of injuries, with Cale Makar and Samuel Girard in particular having Band-Aid Boy status. They've also added more blueliners earlier this offseason in Erik Brannstrom, Calvin de Haan, Jacob MacDonald, and Calle Rosen. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.

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Here are the top Frozen Tools searches for the past week:

(1/2) This week's top #fantasyhockey profile pages:

1) Alex Newhook https://t.co/yffSMAdgsT
2) Marco Rossi https://t.co/3tlyzhPZG8
3) Jordan Spence https://t.co/KCmSFmUoV6
4) Oliver Kylington https://t.co/9OL6Yn8d96
5) Miro Heiskanen https://t.co/GRcljpMRoo

— Frozen Tools (@FrozenTools) August 8, 2024

(2/2) This week's top #fantasyhockey profile pages:

6) Jj Peterka https://t.co/5js3RF0EQ3
7) Tim Stutzle https://t.co/iAVz4GcTkF
8) Ivan Prosvetov https://t.co/14LXbfpnGA
9) Kaiden Guhle https://t.co/M1cHjuIVUF
10) Quinton Byfield https://t.co/do5GWOIVo0

— Frozen Tools (@FrozenTools) August 8, 2024

Alex Newhook

If Newhook was able to stay healthy for the entire 2023-24 season, he could have been a 50-point scorer. However, he missed over two months with a high-ankle sprain, being held to 34 points in 55 games. The good news is that his 0.62 PTS/GP pace was the best of his career in his first season in Montreal. Newhook also saw increases in overall icetime (+3 min/GP) and power-play time (from 2^nd-unit to 1^st-unit minutes) with his new team. He looks like a solid potential sleeper in upcoming fantasy drafts, right?

Not so fast. Newhook finished with several advanced stats that were higher than normal. Not way higher, but the fact there were a few could suggest regression. His 17.6 SH% was a bit high, as was his 11.6% 5-on-5 SH% and his 63.2 Sec. Asst%. In addition, the return of Kirby Dach from injury could also bump Newhook off that top power play. Maybe we want to fade Newhook a bit and turn our attention to Dach?

There seem to be few players that have been as snakebitten as Dach when it comes to injuries. Remember that he suffered a pre-tournament wrist injury just before the 2019 World Juniors started. Then he suffered a torn right ACL and MCL during the second game of the 2023-24 season. Dach's career best 82-game pace is 54 points, which is slightly higher than Newhook's. For that reason, I would target Dach before Newhook as a potential Habs sleeper, although the gap isn't huge. If both stay healthy, the Canadiens are sure to improve offensively.

Miro Heiskanen

I won't feature Heiskanen during Bubble Keeper Week because he is a sure-fire keeper on one of my teams. In a shallower league, Heiskanen might be a bubble keeper, though.

I'm guessing that Heiskanen might be a top-searched player because people might want to know whether he can rebound to 70+ points in 2024-25. Heiskanen's production fell 21 points from 2022-23 to 2023-24, albeit in eight fewer games. He was still rosterable in nearly all standard-sized fantasy leagues, although he went from finishing seventh in scoring among defensemen (just three points out of second place) to 15^th place among fellow d-men.  

A look at some of the underlying numbers doesn't suggest anything radically different, although 13 of the 21-point drop can be accounted for as power-play points. The Stars as a team experienced a slight reduction in power-play effectiveness, although it was insignificant compared to Heiskanen's power-play point decline.

The emergence of Thomas Harley, and perhaps to a lesser extent Nils Lundkvist, should not be discounted. As mentioned in the Fantasy Guide, Harley had eight points and Lundkvist had four points in the 10 games that Heiskanen was out of the lineup. Harley in particular offers enough production to be rosterable in most fantasy leagues despite second-unit power-play time, while Lundkvist may finally be a full-time NHLer this season without the worry of healthy scratches. Dallas is a well-rounded team, and that is certainly the case when it comes to the fantasy value of their blueliners.

As for Heiskanen, I'd be skeptical about him reaching 70 points again. However, 60 points seems like a more reasonable expectation if he is healthy for nearly all of the season.

Quinton Byfield

Byfield recently made headlines after signing a five-year contract with a cap hit of $6.25 million. The 2020 second overall pick registered career highs all around in 2023-24, which included 20 goals, 35 assists, and 161 shots. At age 21, Byfield appears ready to build on those totals.

For starters, Byfield is a large forward (6-5, 225 lbs.), so at his age and number of games played (179) he may need a few more seasons to reach his true breakout potential. As well, the offseason departures of Viktor Arvidsson and Pierre-Luc Dubois should create a full-time spot on the top power play for him.

Byfield's most frequent linemates in 2023-24 were Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, which should also help him out. However, the fact that Dubois has left could create a spot back at the center position for Byfield. If that happens, he could have Kevin Fiala on his wing, which could work for both players. Fiala has registered back-to-back 70+ point seasons as a King in spite of never seeming to play on the top line.

In the recently opened Yahoo Fantasy Hockey (in case you missed it) Byfield currently has RW eligibility. By my research, right wing is the shallowest of the three forward positions, which would help Byfield's value. Byfield's extremely early Yahoo pre-draft ranking is 156, which seems a bit low. His ADP might adjust itself accordingly, and I admittedly haven't had much time to dive into the Yahoo rankings. Yet from initial glance, Byfield could provide strong return on investment in Yahoo drafts.

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