In two of my Ramblings last week, players that I'm avoiding and players I'm targeting were both discussed. A lot of the data used from that Ramblings came from the Underdog Fantasy website and their mock drafts.

Today's Ramblings will discuss the differences between that site, ESPN, and Yahoo!, and in particular when it comes to ESPN's projections. We are going to use the same parameters for both Underdog and ESPN,, so it's a points league with the following assignments:

• Goals = 6
• Assists = 4
• Shots and blocks = 1
• Hits and power-play points = 0.5
• Wins = 6
• Saves = 0.6
• Goals Against = (-3)

This is just to look for where we can find some value in fantasy drafts across sites, and things are sure to change over the next six weeks.

The Top

What sticks out immediately is that where Underdog has the Connor McDavid–Nathan MacKinnon–Auston Matthews trio at the very top, ESPN has MacKinnon-Matthews-David Pastrnak as their top trio. In fact, on a per-game basis, they have McDavid earning about 10% fewer points than MacKinnon and about 8% fewer points than Matthews.

I wouldn't overly argue if, in this particular scoring format, that people had McDavid third in the triumvirate of himself, Matthews, and MacKinnon. In fact, McDavid trails MacKinnon in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons (though he does edge Matthews). What is weird is having Pastrňák ahead of McDavid. There isn't really an argument to be made from a positional perspective because right wing, at least on ESPN, has top-end names. There is Nikita Kucherov, Mikko Rantanen, William Nylander, and Matthew Tkachuk whom could all be first-round picks (at least three of the four likely are).

Anyway, it probably doesn't make a huge difference, and I'm assuming most people will take McDavid if he's still available third overall in any draft. I just found that interesting.

The Next Tier of Centres

Once the elite centres are off the board, there are a slew of similar players. On ESPN, using their projections, Sidney Crosby, JT Miller, Elias Pettersson, Brayden Point, Jack Eichel, and Steven Stamkos are ranked 17^th through 23^rd off the board. Assuming maybe one or two goalies taken in the top two rounds of a 12-team draft, that could mean all those names go at in the mid-late portion of the second round. That seems… high.

In fact, when I translate the Dobber Hockey 2024-25 Fantasy Guide projections (that guide is available in the Dobber Shop right now), there are large discrepancies. For example, Miller and Pettersson are projected over a full fantasy point more per game than Stamkos while Eichel is at the front of the group in fantasy points per game. Tim Stützle is projected ahead of Crosby, Points, and Stamkos, and Stamkos trails both Connor Bedard and Dylan Larkin. In fact, using the Dobber projections, there is a bigger gap between Stützle and Stamkos (0.48 fpts/game) than there is Stamkos and Macklin Celebrini (0.38 fpts/game).

I still think Stamkos is being overrated some. Over the last three seasons, he's 22^nd by fantasy points per game. Add a few goalies and he has performed as, roughly, the 25^th player in fantasy hockey. That is great, but that's also where his ADP is, and he's going to a team that doesn't have Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Can he put up 40 power play points in Nashville like he nearly did in Tampa Bay last season (39)? It feels like asking a lot, and there might be better value to be had elsewhere.

The Next Tier of Wingers

Here is the tier of wingers going outside of the first round and their fantasy points per game in this setup over the last three seasons:

• Mitch Marner – 9.67
• Jake Guentzel – 9.64
• William Nylander – 9.46
• Artemi Panarin – 9.37

If we look as either ESPN's or Underdog's ADPs, those names are basically going in reverse. Both Nylander and Panarin are going somewhere in the early-mid second round with Guentzel and Marner going late in the second round or early in the third. It isn't to say that we should just sort by the last three years of fantasy performance because things do change (Panarin has Alexis Lafrenière playing at a high level now while Guentzel is in Tampa Bay). I do wonder if there isn't some fantasy value to be had here.

Marner definitely had a down year, but the 82-game pace for his down year was 31 goals and 70 assists. He was on pace for over 30 power play points. Oh, and he set career high marks in blocks (51) and hits (59) despite playing just 69 games. I maintained all through the season that Marner was playing hurt, and he missed time down the stretch before finishing with 13 points in his last 13 games. He has one year left on his contract to boost his value as much as he can. I think we see Marner be close to what he did in 2021-2023 than in 2023-24, which is to say 35 goals, 70 assists, and good (not great) peripherals. He should not fall very far past the 20^th pick off the board.

Elder Defencemen

I was taken aback once I started digging through the defencemen rankings on ESPN. They have Roman Josi and Cale Makar neck and neck, which seems right, with Rasmus Dahlin third on an island of his own. That all seems palatable until… John Carlson fourth? Dougie Hamilton fifth? That seems high to me. I like Carlson in fantasy season but that's mostly because he's going around the 20^th defenceman off the board on Underdog while he's ranked around the top-30 on Yahoo!. If I had to take Carlson anywhere near a top-12 fantasy defenceman, let alone top five, I would easily just move along and look for value elsewhere. I don't think he goes that high in drafts on ESPN, but that is where they have him ranked in this format. He is the number-4 fantasy defenceman over the last three years, I guess.

As for Hamilton, this is a guy I've talked about already, but I'd feel nervous taking him as a top-10 fantasy defenceman. He is not likely to run the top PP unit and he's basically being drafted as if he's still a PP1 defenceman. That is a huge red flag for me and an easy pass as a top-10 fantasy defenceman.

King Wingers

Looking through ESPN's projections, I noticed Kevin Fiala around the 70^th ranked skater. It worked out to be the 15^th left winger off the board, which feels about right, but it's the players that are ranked behind him that stuck out. They have Andrei Svechnikov and Cole Caufield with lower fantasy points per game projections than Fiala and that is very interesting.

They have Caufield scoring 27 goals in 78 games played. For his career, he has scored 31 goals every 78 games. They think his goal scoring will drop off as he enters his age-24 season with a Montreal team with young forwards all a year older, picked up Patrik Laine, and are introducing Lane Hutson into the lineup. Things are even worse on Yahoo! where Caufield is the 30^th left winger off the board.

For posterity, using Dobber's projections, Caufield is the 16^th winger on the board (both right and left). He is projected about 10% ahead of Fiala, higher than Alex Ovechkin, Timo Meier, and Adrian Kempe, and the 34^th skater on the board. Add a handful of goalies and he is a late-third, early-fourth round pick. We don't all have to believe in Dobber's projections, but there is a large gap between fourth-round pick, a seventh-round pick, and a ninth round pick. Three sites, three projections/rankings, and about a 55-pick gap between them. For a top-100 player, that is a wide chasm.

My lean is Caufield is going to be closer to a 40-goal, 80-point player than a 25-goal, 60-point player, so I agree with Dobber. Fiala's value seems fine everywhere, though.

Then there is Adrian Kempe. He had a down year goal scoring-wise, but finished north of 3.0 shots per game for the third straight season, his third straight season of at least 110 hits, his second straight season with at least 20 PPPs, a career-high in ice time, and a career-high 75 points. Despite this, his ranking on ESPN is as an early sixth-round pick. Comparatively, Yahoo! has him ranked just inside the top-40 players, which mirrors his ADP on Underdog.

Needless to say, I think he's closer to a top-40 player than a top-70 player. Taking him somewhere in the late fourth/early fifth seems about right to me, but I'm not sure I want to jump in much earlier.

Tage Thompson and Joel Eriksson Ek

Both centres can be league-winning selections. As repeatedly stated in my Ramblings, I think coach Lindy Ruff will get the Buffalo Sabres playing a much higher tempo in 2024-25 than Don Granato did in 2023-24, and that'll help Thompson rebound. That means back to pushing for 40 goals, a point per game, and 300 shots. He even added more hits to his profile last year. ESPN's projection of him as a top-40 skater feels right.

Comparatively, though, ESPN is much higher on Thompson than other players. He is ranked as a sixth-round pick on Yahoo! while Underdog has him in the middle of the fifth round. There is probably value to be had on him as a fifth-round pick, especially because it makes him easy to stack with the likes of Rasmus Dahlin in the second/third round, Alex Tuch in the sixth/seventh round range, and JJ Peterka after that. Thompson feels like one of those guys that should be rostered once the elite centres are gone and people are fighting over the Point/Stamkos/Crosby tier.

Eriksson Ek is one of the more fascinating players in fantasy because his season has a wide range of outcomes. If Marco Rossi takes another leap forward and can become the top-line centre Minnesota needs to play with Kirill Kaprizov, that really hurts Eriksson Ek's value. On the other hand, if Rossi has to be used in a middle-6 role and Eriksson Ek stays on the top line, he has huge fantasy potential.

Eventually, Eriksson Ek is going to have another season where he shoots 15-16% instead of 10-11% and he's going to score 40 goals instead of 30. He'll push for point-per-game status and have huge peripherals. He will be a top-20 player in fantasy and a league-winning pick. Is it this year? Find me a crystal ball and I'll ask. But if I was waiting on drafting a fantasy centre, or just wanted a very good second one, that is going somewhere outside the top-70 players on most sites, the answer is Eriksson Ek.

Just to clarify, though, he's a top-50 ranked player on Yahoo!. Might not be as much luck over there.