Welcome back to another week of Analytics Advantage! As draft season approaches, it's crucial to sharpen your understanding of player performance and how they stack up against their peers. This week, we're building on last week's analysis by diving deeper into Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) graphs and percentiles. These visuals provide a clear picture of which tiers players fall into based on their numbers, offering invaluable insights as you prepare for the upcoming fantasy season. Let's break down the data and see where the top contenders and hidden gems land in the FPPG landscape.

Why Incorporate Percentiles in FPPG Analysis?

While Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) is key to understanding a player's average fantasy output, it doesn't fully reveal how that performance compares to the rest of the league. This is where percentiles come into play. Percentiles rank players within a distribution, showing how a player's FPPG stacks up against their peers. For example, a player in the 90th percentile is outperforming 90% of the league, placing them in the top tier of fantasy assets.

Using percentiles alongside FPPG allows us to categorize players into performance tiers, offering a clearer picture of their relative value. This is crucial during draft season when identifying top-tier talent and potential sleepers is essential. Percentiles also help normalize differences in scoring environments across the league, ensuring that our comparisons are both fair and meaningful.

By combining FPPG with percentile rankings, fantasy managers can better understand a player's consistency and dominance. This dual-layer analysis highlights players who not only accumulate points but do so in a way that sets them apart from the majority of the league. Ultimately, this approach ensures more informed decisions in drafting, trading, and lineup management.

Data Sources

The data for this analysis was sourced from player statistics spanning the 2016-2024 NHL campaigns, obtained from NaturalStatTrick.

Data Processing

Player statistics from the 2016-2024 campaigns were combined into a single dataset, then filtered for players who played at least 9 games in each year to ensure a significant amount of playing time.

Highlighted Players

For this analysis, I focused on players who ranked in the 90th percentile or better in FPPG. By zeroing in on these top performers, I was able to identify those who not only excel but do so consistently at an elite level. From this pool of standout players, I selected the most compelling graphs to highlight based on their impact and relevance to the current fantasy landscape.

These graphs showcase players who have demonstrated exceptional performance, whether through steady dominance or by emerging as key fantasy assets this season. By examining these key examples, we gain valuable insights into the trends driving today's fantasy hockey success and identify potential targets for your upcoming drafts and roster moves. These selected players exemplify the high-level consistency and impact that can make a significant difference in your fantasy hockey leagues.

Alex Ovechkin

Ovechkin has been a fantasy powerhouse for years, but his recent dip in performance and the Capitals' struggles raise concerns. Still, his history suggests he could rebound if the team improves.

Alex Pietrangelo

Pietrangelo is a dependable fantasy defenseman, known for his steady contributions. Expect him to continue delivering solid numbers for Vegas this season.

Chris Kreider

Kreider has flirted with top-tier status and should remain a key player on a strong Rangers team. His blend of speed and scoring makes him a reliable fantasy option.

Charlie McAvoy

McAvoy's offensive game has matured, making him a valuable fantasy defenseman. As the Bruins' top blueliner, he's a consistent source of points.

Connor McDavid

McDavid is the gold standard in fantasy hockey, consistently leading in all key metrics. Draft him without hesitation for elite production.

Dylan Larkin

Larkin is the engine of the Red Wings' offense and essential to their playoff hopes. If he stays healthy, he'll be a consistent fantasy contributor.

Frank Vatrano

Vatrano had an unexpected breakout season, but it's doubtful he'll repeat those numbers. View him with caution heading into this year.

John Carlson

Carlson, like Ovechkin, faces a pivotal season with the struggling Capitals. If he regains form, he remains a top fantasy defenseman.

Kyle Connor

Connor is central to the Jets' offensive plans and should maintain high FPPG rankings. Expect another strong season from him.

Leon Draisaitl

Draisaitl is among the NHL's elite, with massive scoring potential in Edmonton's high-powered offense. He's a top-tier fantasy pick again this year.

Mathew Barzal

Barzal had a strong season, but the Islanders' aging roster might limit his upside. Don't expect a repeat of last year's peak performance.

Steven Stamkos

Stamkos delivers whenever he's healthy, making him a valuable fantasy asset. If he avoids injury, another elite season is likely.

Timo Meier

Meier has high potential, especially if the Devils can find their groove. He's a worthwhile gamble with possible high rewards.

Vincent Trocheck

Trocheck benefits greatly from his talented Rangers teammates, providing consistent fantasy value. He's likely to remain in the top percentile range.

Zach Werenski

Werenski is a solid fantasy defenseman, regularly producing on a mediocre Blue Jackets team. He's a reliable pick for steady points.

Thank you for reading, and have a great rest of your day! Twitter/X – @DH_staspup for any questions, corrections, or comments. Please feel free to ask for any player's graph—I can post it or DM.