Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades 2024: Washington Capitals
TJ Branson
2024-09-05
For the last 21 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.
The 22nd annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.
Enjoy!
* * Pick up the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide here – always updated * *
Gone: Darcy Kuemper, Max Pacioretty, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Beck Malenstyn, Nick Jensen
Incoming: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, Jakob Chychrun, Logan Thompson, Brandon Duhaime, Matt Roy, Jakob Chychrun
Impact of Changes – The Washington Capitals are refusing to fade away. After making the playoffs with a minus-37 goal differential, largely thanks to superb goaltending from Charlie Lindgren, Washington has addressed key areas to stay in the playoff mix. Alex Ovechkin is 42 goals away from breaking Wayne Gretzky's record, and the Capitals made moves to help him get there.
High-end depth was the theme this offseason: Chychrun, a top-pair defenseman, is capable of running the power play behind John Carlson. They traded Kuemper for Dubois, who can slot in as a 2C behind Dylan Strome. Mangiapane adds second-line wing depth but could see top-line time if Tom Wilson gets injured, suspended, or underperforms. Thompson bolsters a strong goaltending tandem, while Roy and Duhaime bring depth that strengthens the team overall.
Ready for Full-Time – Ivan Miroschnichenko has the best chance to make an impact this season. He's shown flashes of offensive skill in the AHL and had brief NHL appearances. His size and skill make him an exciting option for the top-six and is first in line if an opening arises. If he can get a look in the NHL and is able to put his versatility and power-forward build in the spotlight he could force management's hand in keeping him in the NHL.
Vincent Iorio had a brief NHL call-up last season and could see more time if injuries hit the blue line. Iorio has a reliable two-way game but may need another year of development before becoming a full-time NHLer.
Clay Stevenson is likely to remain as an injury fill-in if one of the goalies miss time. Stevenson had an impressive run in the AHL, including leading the league in shutouts. He will be on Washington's radar long term, but their goaltending tandem appears solidified.
Fantasy Outlook – The Capitals head into the 2024-25 season optimistic. Key additions addressing weaknesses have made Washington more of a threat in an ever-improving Metro Division that is never short of competition. The Caps have plenty of storylines to follow from a fantasy perspective. Ovechkin needs to score just above a half goal per game to break Wayne Gretzky's goal record. His Average Draft Position has been slipping year over year, and if he's motivated to break the record this year, he could provide a huge return on investment.
Chychrun is more than capable of running a top power-play unit, while John Carlson is 34 years old and has a lot of miles on his body. Perhaps we see a scenario where Carlson's minutes are better suited elsewhere in order to increase his impact and longevity, like many are projecting for Brent Burns in Carolina. If Chychrun gets the call for the top unit, he will be one of the best draft-day defensemen on the board. Carlson is a right-handed shot, and Chychrun a lefty – so the dynamics could deter coach Spencer Carbery from making that adjustment.
Lindgren was in a four-way tie for the league lead in shutouts (6). It's important to note that shutouts are the most variant statistic for goalies and also the most variant position year to year. Lindgren's save percentage was .899 in games that were not a shutout, so counting on 6 shutouts again next year might be unwise. Lindgren's shutouts were against teams that are impossible to discount: VGK, NYR, BOS (2x), PIT and WPG – so saying his is an .899 save percentage goalie would also be unwise. The aerial view of Lindgren's season will probably land somewhere in the middle.
The battle for 1A in the goaltending tandem will likely go to Lindgren first based on rapport and support from management and the team who largely credited his play as the sole reason for making the playoffs last year while he dragged a stagnant offense into a first-round exit. Logan Thompson is three years younger than Lindgren and has experience with Vegas that should make competition fierce. Thompson requested a trade out of Vegas on the basis that he wanted a bigger role with the Knights and Adin Hill made that difficult to promise, so the assumption might be that the Capitals might be obliged to give Thompson more of a starter's workload.
Long term, this is an aging team (or at least their stars Ovechkin and Carlson are aging) without a surefire 80-point player, or even an 80-point hopeful, with a prospect pipeline that is probably in the bottom half of the league, if somewhere near the middle.
Grade: C+ (last year was a C+)