Frozen Tool Forensics: Multicat Forwards

Chris Kane

2024-09-06

Last week we took a look at some potential break out players using a games-played threshold, and prior to that we went division by division to focus on what some of the underlying numbers might mean for player scoring. One avenue we haven't touched on yet going into draft season is multi-cat players.

For the purposes of this article, we are mainly going to be focusing on hits, blocks, and shots (sorry no penalty minutes). I have pulled all the data for the 2023-24 season from Frozen Tools Multi-Category Report, which includes season total as well as per game information. We are going to be looking at per-game data as season totals are certainly dependent on games played which can be fairly random.

In terms of our data set, we will of course be looking at shots, hits, and blocks, but will also have points per game data so we can have that as a reference. When we are considering multi-cat forwards, we typically expect a decent number of shots, a solid number of hits, but not quite as many blocks. I am going to start with some thresholds to whittle down our player list. The first table will include all skaters who averaged over 2.5 shots per game and over two hits per game.

NamePosTeamGPSOGHitsBlocksPTS
BRADY TKACHUKLOTT814.413.580.470.92
ALEX OVECHKINLWSH793.4420.380.82
JOEL ERIKSSON EKCMIN773.472.160.820.83
VINCENT TROCHECKCNYR822.632.051.090.93
EVANDER KANELEDM772.863.190.40.57

It's a short list.

Brady Tkachuk has certainly taken over the throne that used to be Alex Ovechkin's. Ovechkin is obviously still second on this list, but his shot rate no longer keeps up with Tkachuk and his hit rate has never been quite as dramatic. Ovechkin has forever been a point-per-game player, who puts up four shots per game, and two and half hits per game. With his decline in point production and shot rates, there really is no competition for Tkachuk.

Tkachuk has been shooting over 3.5 shots per game for five seasons and generally been increasing that rate with over four shots per game for the past two seasons. He only has one season in the past five where his hit rates are below three per game. Tkachuk also has the most consistent point pace of the remaining folks on this list, though both Joel Eriksson Ek and Vincent Trocheck had excellent scoring paces in 2023-24. Ultimately Brady has elite numbers across multiple categories.

Evander Kane has certainly had a tumultuous career. But if there is something that he has been successful at contributing, it is shots and hits. His health is definitely a question going into the season, but beyond that his playing time is also coming into serious question. He was down below 17 minutes for the first time in 2023-24 since his rookie season, and then Edmonton went and added Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner while keeping deadline acquisition Adam Henrique. Kane was already spending lots of time in the bottom six by the end of the season, and he now has a bunch more competition to deal with for playing time.

Kane did still manage almost three shots per game, but that was his lowest rate since his rookie year. He did increase his hitting though so there was still some value to be had. It is possible he keeps up a 50-point pace and his accompanying three shots and three hits per game, but the increased competition for ice time in Edmonton and his injury status certainly put up a couple of red flags here.

Given we are talking multi-cat players here, I don't want to completely eliminate blocks from the equation. For our second group we are looking at players who have more than two shots per game, more than 1.5 hits per game, and more than 0.8 blocks per game.

NamePosTeamGPSOGHitsBlocksPTS
FRANK VATRANOLANA823.321.840.950.73
JOEL ERIKSSON EKCMIN773.472.160.820.83
VINCENT TROCHECKCNYR822.632.051.090.93
BOONE JENNERCCBJ582.671.971.330.6

We see a couple of the same names so I do want to touch on Eriksson Ek and Trocheck. The last three seasons have really been a coming out party for JEEK. Initially he was a depth center, shooting less than twice a game, hitting less than twice a game, and only putting up a max of a 40ish point pace.

In 2021-22 that started to change for Eriksson Ek. His time on ice jumped, he started getting top power-play deployment, and both kept climbing to the point where he was seeing 20.5 minutes of average time on ice in 2023-24 and about 70 percent of the power-play. With that he has seen a big jump in goal scoring and point production in general (65–70-point paces the last two seasons), but also a big jump in peripherals. He has been shooting over three shots per game the last couple of seasons and was up over two hits per game in 2023-24. His block rates are also quite good for a forward. Overall, he is a significant contributor across the board.

Trocheck certainly benefited from playing with Artemi Panarin in terms of scoring as he rarely has put up a 75-plus-point pace, but we shouldn't sell him short on his other category successes. For three of the last four seasons, he has been between two and a half and three shots per game and over two hits per game. Typically blocks hasn't been that strong of a stat, but he saw a big jump in 2023-24 from about a half block per game to over one. Some of that might be the increased time on the ice while short-handed, but he has had that before in his career without the big block numbers.

Trocheck's team shooting percentage was a little bit high for him but possibly repeatable. If Panarin has another excellent season, Trocheck could see a similar point pace in 2024-25, which certainly would keep his value elevated.

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It was a little surprising to see Frank Vatrano on this list. Decent shot rates were already baked into the equation, but he increased those to over three shots per game for the first time in 2023-24. The surprise was the uptick in both hit and block numbers. Vatrano had been cruising along a lot closer to one hit per game for the last several years and saw a big jump to almost two hits per game. 2023-24 was the second season in a row where he was up above 0.9 blocks per game after three straight seasons of about a third of a block per game. I suppose being in Anaheim these last two seasons has increased the likelihood of being in a position to need to make a block, but it certainly pads his multi-cat stats.

Overall, Vatrano saw over 18 minutes a night on average for the first time in his career plus over 50 percent of the power play. Some of his underlying numbers are a little elevated, though not dramatically so, but it isn't clear whether he can sustain a 60-point pace to go along with his peripherals. At the very least the increased time on ice, power-play role, and shot rates should see him improve from his recent history of a 40ish point pace so add that to decent peripherals and we have a reasonably valuable player here.

The one knock on Boone Jenner is point production. There have been seasons where he lines up on the top line and on the top power-play and puts up a 55–60-point pace to go along with his two and a half shots per game, two hits per game, and a block per game. Without that deployment though, we are looking at closer to a 40-point pace and fewer opportunities for shots.

Adam Fantilli's growth and bringing in Sean Monahan over the summer provides more competition for top deployment, plus there are some big questions about Columbus' ability to score goals in 2024-25 regardless. I don't think Jenner can be counted on for points. He is certainly worth a look a little later in the draft for that cross-category contribution, but the point production could be an Achilles heel this season.

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