Anthony Duclair was still on the New York Islanders' top PP unit in practice yesterday. Projections will be discussed later but having L1/PP1 status matters a lot to Duclair's 2024-25 fantasy outlook.

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Buffalo Sabres defenceman Rasmus Dahlin was skating before Buffalo's practice as he had been injured very, very early in training camp:

Rasmus Dahlin and Viktor Neuchev among a handful of skaters who aren't playing tonight who are on the ice right now.

— Heather Engel (@engelheather) September 23, 2024

He isn't back practicing yet but that he's on the ice is a very good sign in the right direction. The team hopes he'll be in a non-contact practice before they head to Europe to start the season.  

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Rickard Rakell is skating on Pittsburgh's top power play unit:

#Pens doing power play for the first time.

PP1 (Erik Karlsson still missing): Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Rakell, Letang

PP2: Bunting, Eller, Hayes, Beauvillier, Grzelcyk

— Wes Crosby (@OtherNHLCrosby) September 23, 2024

This has implications for Michael Bunting's fantasy prospects, so it's something to keep an eye on.

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As seemed likely, Mikhail Sergachev was running Utah's top PP unit in practice:

Power-play units Utah is practicing with right now:

PP1: Sergachev, Keller, Schmaltz, Doan, Hayton
PP2: Durzi, Kerfoot, Maccelli, Crouse, Stenlund

— Belle Fraser (@bellefraser1) September 23, 2024

This group didn't include players that played on Sunday night like Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, so keep that in mind.

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Unfortunate injury news for Minnesota Wild winger Matt Boldy:

Major #mnwild news right off the hop: Matt Boldy week to week with a lower-body injury.

— Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) September 23, 2024

We will see how long this lasts but John Hynes later said that it’s not expected to be long-term and he may be ready for the start of the season.

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The Winnipeg Jets and Cole Perfetti ended the contract stalemate as he signed a bridge deal for two years at $3.25M per season. The fact it took this long and ended up at a very reasonable number makes it curious that things got so far, but it's done and he'll be in camp shortly.

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It has been a bit of a slog, but I've finally finished my forward point and shot projections for the 2024-25 season. This week I will tackle defencemen and hopefully have those done for discussion next week.

Before we get to projections that are standing out to me, a few notes on these:

• Rookies are not included yet. Those are a separate calculation added at the end.
• All players are projected for 82 games played.
• These projections function in a 'market share' manner. That means figuring out what percentage of goals/assists/shots a specific player will register on the team's goals scored with him on the ice, and then extrapolating that for their ice time rates and 82 games.
• Assumptions are made to a player's role. There is a big difference between Brandon Hagel playing on Tampa Bay's top PP unit and the second unit.
• I will release full rankings before the season starts, but not my per-player projections. Dobber has those covered in the 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide, which is available now in the Dobber Shop!

Alright, with the preamble out of the way, let's get to some interesting names.

Returning to the 50-Goal Plateau

There are two names that reached the 50-goal mark back in 2022-23 that are projected to return there in the 2024-25 season:

Looking under the hood, a big reason for Draisaitl's rebound is an increase in shots on goal. In 2023-24, he landed 50.9% of his shot attempts on goal. Across the prior two seasons, that number was over 58%. That makes a difference, and while I do think NHL teams are getting better at altering shot paths from attacking skaters – and Draisaitl has unique shot selection – that is likely too big of a single-season drop.

As for Brayden Point, it basically comes down to picking up a few extra power play goals with Steven Stamkos gone. There really isn't a whole lot expected to change for him, though he should also add some more even strength assists with either Jake Guentzel or Brandon Hagel assumed to be the left winger on Tampa Bay's top line for basically the entire season.

The 90-Point Mark

There are four forwards expected to land right at the 90-point mark (rounded up or down). These are four forwards well worth discussing because two of them are going outside the top-100 players off fantasy draft boards so far:

It isn't really a huge surprise seeing Robert Thomas there. He had 86 points last year, is going to have a heavily featured role, and is finally shooting at a level that puts 30 goals within range.

Clayton Keller's name being on this list isn't much of a surprise, either. He is over a point-per-game player across the prior two seasons and rebounding even-strength goal scoring from Utah is a big factor here. Also, though Keller is thought of as a playmaker – and he is – he has averaged 36 goals every 82 games across the last two years.

These projections are generally very bullish on Buffalo, and Tage Thompson is no exception. After a down 2023-24 season, these projections have him getting back to the 90-point mark that he reached in 2022-23 when he had 47 goals and 47 assists. A much-improved power play along with more ice time is driving this projection, so if the power play doesn't improve much and he stays around 18 minutes a game, the 90-point mark is out of reach. 

What floored me was seeing Jared McCann here. He had a 70-point season two years ago, reaching the 40-goal plateau, and career-highs in both goals and assists are projected now. The big reason is an expected jump in ice time. The way former Seattle Kraken coach Dave Hakstol split ice time among the skaters crushed fantasy upside because ice time is a big factor in fantasy production. So far in training camps, McCann is skating on the top line with Matty Beniers, so the expectation is McCann is north of 15 even-strength minutes per game (he has been under 13 in each of the last two seasons). The ice-time leap includes more power play minutes, as the expectation is the top unit gets a bigger share of the available ice time, pushing McCann towards, but just under, 3:00 PP minutes per game. All told, the ice time leap amounts to about 2:30 per game, and for McCann, the ice time leap alone means an additional 10 points. Add in a rebound in the team's scoring, and here we are. I will say I'm very skeptical of this projection and will have to investigate this more when I make further adjustments.

40-Goal Wingers

The projections have five wingers hitting the 40-goal plateau on the nose. It is a good mix of veterans and younger players:

Seeing Jonathan Marchessault's name here is interesting as he reached the 40-goal mark, finishing with 42, for the first time in his career in 2023-24. The projections think a lot of him playing on a line with Stamkos and Tommy Novak, as well as on the top PP unit. That power play role is crucial here because if he is Yo-Yo'd between the two units like Novak and Luke Evangelista were last season, it cuts his power play goal expectation in half, and brings him closer to 35 goals. If he declines for age-related reasons, it may be closer to 30. There are reasons to think he won't hit 40 goals again even if he plays a full season.

William Nylander is expected to land on 40 goals for the third season in a row, but training camp is making me nervous. If he is the center on a line with Max Domi, Nylander could see an ice-time drop. A big reason he finished with 40 goals last year was because he skated nearly 20 minutes a night. If he drops back to the 18:30-19:00 range, that puts 40 goals in peril.

Since Chris Kreider hit 52 goals in 2021-22, he's averaged 38 goals every 82 games. He will still have a featured role in the New York Rangers lineup, but he's also a 33-year-old power forward and age-related decline can kick in hard and fast at any time. He is kind of like Jonathan Marchessault in that I would draft Kreider expecting around 35 goals in a full season and anything more than that is gravy.  

It was a down year for Jordan Kyrou in 2023-24 and he still had 31 goals. He is 26 years old and the projection assumes he passes 19 minutes a game, which is part of what's driving the 40 goals shown here. The other is shooting-percentage rebound and when we add all the incremental improvements together, it adds a lot to his profile.

The one name that might really stick out is Cole Caufield. He has never reached 30 goals, let alone 40, but he saw a significant ice-time jump last year. The top line was very good offensively and looks to be reassembled for training camp. A big rebound in shooting percentage – largely based on the assumption that his shoulder is healthy – has him projecting for 40 goals in a full season.

Three 70-Point Centres

There are three centres projected for exactly 70 points, and it's quite the mix:

There is a goal-scoring rebound expected for Roope Hintz and that should get him back near the 35-goal plateau. The only reason he's not projected for more than 70 points is his role. Last season, he skated 17:14 per game and he's averaged 17:23 across the last two seasons. If he was an 18:30-19:00 player, he'd be close to a point-per-game projection. He relies on maximum efficiency for point production and that's a tough way to live.

I assume that when age adjustments are made, Nazem Kadri's total will drop. He turns 34 years old in a couple of weeks and that's getting to dangerous territory. However, with Elias Lindholm gone for the full season and no replacement brought in, the assumption is Kadri creeps past 19 minutes a game, and volume matters a lot. A drop in team quality is lowering his totals from what he did in 2023-24, but there's still a very useful fantasy player here, if only because of volume.

The expectation is Dylan Cozens gets to 70 points after flirting with the mark in 2022-23 (68 points). While a shooting percentage rebound is helping here, the big driver is the improved power play mentioned in the section on Tage Thompson. If Cozens has a consistent PP1 role for the entire year, he can exceed 20 power play points and that is helping his overall projection a lot. The top Buffalo fantasy skaters' seasons are dependent on a PP turnaround and that should be a bit worrisome.