Capped: Reviewing the Contracts For Guentzel, Reinhart, Stephenson, and Duclair

Andrew Santillo

2024-10-03

Hello all and welcome back! Let's dive back in on some summer signings, or as we say in fun 9-5 world, "let's circle back". Can't put offseason signings on the backburner. Let's touch base on a deliverable you can bring to the table for your fantasy draft.

Jake Guentzel – LW – Tampa Bay – 29 years old

Contract: $63M $9M AAV – Seven years remaining – NMC, M-NTC 2029-2031

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

67           30           47           77           22           20:01     3:37        238         48           30


This was a head start signing and one that we probably all saw coming. The Tampa Bay Lightning traded a third rounder to Carolina for the rights to negotiate with Jake Guentzel, and that's a hefty price tag for just the negotiating rights. When that happened, I think we all assumed Tampa was going to be serious about signing Guentzel and they were, as he inked a $63M deal with the club. As far as term and AAV go, I like it and not sure there's a world where the fit doesn't work. You're likely looking at a line of Guentzel – Brayden PointNikita Kucherov, which is fantastic when looking at fantasy output for Guentzel.

Depending on how many people are in your league, and if there's keepers or not, Guentzel is going off the board in the late fourth/early fifth in most drafts so he's going to be a player that odds are is in your draft queue along with a couple other league mates. The offensive output will be there for Guentzel, and if he plays in the 75-80 games this season, then 30 goals are well within reach for him. I will say as well, his position is valuable and what I mean by that is for leagues that play C/LW/RW. In years past I've often felt that no one position was deeper than another but coming into this year you can get in trouble by sleeping on LW. Once you pass that Cole Caufield/Kevin Fiala/Andrei Svechnikov group, you could be in hot water all of a sudden debating between Eeli Tolvanen and Adam Henrique.

Guentzel's health has been an issue in the past but again, if he's at the 75-game mark you'll be looking at or around a 30-goal season from him. One stat I will note, his hits and blocked shots went down from two seasons ago last year as two seasons ago he tallied 83 hits and 46 blocks, last year 48 hits and 30 blocks. To me this was like Alex DeBrincat last season as well, those stats go down but with the offense Guentzel should provide this is still a good player to target in fantasy.

Sam Reinhart – RW – Florida – 28 years old

Contract: $69M – $8.625M AAV – Eight years remaining – NMC, M-NTC 2030-2032

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

82           57           37           94           34           20:18     3:45        233         78           71

Last season's stat line is out of this world for Sam Reinhart and if you asked me how many points he finished with I would have thought it was over the 100-point mark. Florida was my CentreIce team of the year and had them on most nights, his power play scoring looked so easy and even if his stats fall back slightly, he'll still be excellent on Florida's power play.

When the signing was announced I thought it was a good contract and AAV and in the ballpark of where I sort of assumed he was going to land. The team that wins the Cup usually loses some depth pieces and is able to sign one player back on a big ticket, this happens most summers for the club that gets to parade around with the Cup. Florida had decisions to make on their blueline and will have to figure a way to keep some of their F pieces this season, but they didn't shy away from signing Reinhart which was the right move. Remember, when you're in a championship window, you can't cheap out.

As far as fantasy is concerned, Reinhart is either going to be drafted right around where he should be, or this is the player in drafts that someone is going to reach up and take off the board early. Sure, his offense might decline from last season but a drop off would still be somewhere in the 82- to 85-point range. That said, if Aleksander Barkov stays healthy for 82 games or close to it at center and with Carter Verhaeghe on his opposite wing, we could see very similar output from Reinhart at even strength.

Chandler Stephenson – C – Seattle – 30 years old

Contract (extension): $25M – $6.25M – Four years remaining – NMC

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

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75           16           35           51           13           18:29     2:53        97           43           41

Ah Chandler Stephenson. My DFS darling! Just reminiscing on all the times I needed a cheap center or a second-line Vegas filler stack…good times with good friends. This signing might not have shocked the hockey world, but I do think it's important here for Seattle.

When Vegas signed Tomas Hertl on deadline day last season seemingly with 10 seconds remaining to get trades in, I thought that meant that next season Stephenson would be in a new city and that was indeed the case. I can see the argument that this might have been a slight overpay but I take that as the free agent sticker tax. Seattle was my front runner last season that needed to sign a centre at the deadline to stay in the playoff hunt. Well, that and not running all four lines out at near even time on ice like an AHL club. Now this season they'll have Matty Beniers at the top, Chandler Stephenson, Yanni Gourde, and maybe we see Shane Wright take a bigger role during the season. That's not a bad group to have down the middle coming from what they had.

For fantasy if you end up with Stephenson, my guess is it was the later rounds, and he was available. I wouldn't be surprised at all in smaller leagues if he's not taken at all, but he's someone to keep an eye on at times this season. There's going to be injuries and typically the scoring from C's can be hard to come by, so he might make for a nice addition at some point during the season.

Anthony Duclair – LW – Islanders – 29 years old

Contract: $14M – 3.5AAV – Four years remaining

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

73           24           18           42           12           15:46     1:44        129         49           40

I just want to give a shoutout to Anthony Duclair here for the wildest Hockey-Reference page of all time. Rangers from 2014-15, Coyotes 2015-18, Blackhawks 2017-18 what were you doing clotheslining him Brad Marchand, Columbus 2018-19, Florida 2020-23, San Jose last season, current NY Islander. Along with playing for what feels like half the league, Anthony Duclair is represented by…himself, Anthony Duclair. Incredible.

The term and AAV is good, and for fantasy this isn't a player that many are targeting unless you're in a larger league. This could be a good move for the Isles getting a top line LW to give Anders Lee less minutes up top, and I wouldn't be surprised if Duclair and Mathew Barzal work well together at even strength.

*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com  

For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.

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