I'm taking a break from regularly scheduled Roos Lets Loose content, since it's a bit too early to dissect data for the current season. But at the same time, decisions made, and actions taken – or not taken – at this juncture can be among the most consequential. 

That begs the question of when to know to be patient and steadfastly stay the course, versus not sticking with the status quo. It's a question I hope to answer here for the various contexts in which it is most likely to arise. Yes, I did run a similar column this time last year, but I promise there's been some refreshing/rethinking, so it will be worth your while even if it's not the first time you'll be seeing some of what you read. As a reminder, all or nearly all the information discussed here can be found in Frozen Tools, which, although always an invaluable resource, should be visited by you at least on a daily basis in the early going.

Now that you know why I'm doing this, as well as what makes it worth your attention, I'll get to the actual DO's and DON'T's. One last thing – I've tried my best to make these applicable to those in both one-year and keeper leagues, as well as to roto and H2H; however, in some cases the advice is not one size fits all, especially when it comes to differing categories and weighting.

PP Usage (Don't – focus on PP minutes; Do – look at PP percentage usage and non-PP ice time)

Don't forget that unlike the playoffs, the refs usually call a lot more penalties in the early going to try and set a "we're in control" tone. Although over time the whistles become less frequent, the key to remember is that most everyone's PP TOI will be highest in Q1. If a player isn't getting PP time during this early juncture of the season, it's indeed an issue. But remember, teams who've had the most PPs thus far could have had some occur when, for example, their top players were just finishing a shift, such that instead of the normal PP1 unit skating for most of that PP, the second unit likely will.

What allows you to not be "fooled" by PP minutes is focusing on PP usage, namely the percentage of time a player is on the ice while his team is on the PP. It's not perfect, but it is far more reliable than straight up PP TOI averages. Also, if a player is skating a lot on the PP, but not a lot overall, that is a good news bad news situation at best, since although he could shine on the PP and earn more ice time, it's a sign that the team doesn't think enough of him to give him regular shifts. Also, keep in mind that only Colorado and the Rangers had four forwards take the ice for two-thirds or more of their PP minutes in both the last two seasons. As such, even if you think a PP1 for a team is set in stone, chances are it isn't, such what you're seeing now isn't necessarily going to be unchanged over the long haul.

OZ% (Don't – assume the worst if it's a bit low; Do – beware of high OZ% not correlating to high TOI)

Offensive zone starting percentage is among the statistics most predictive of success, or lack thereof. It's understandable why, since not only is a player more likely to score if it's high, but if it's not high he's also likely not playing with others who are offensively talented. But it also is more predictive with every game played, and less so early on.

Why? For one, as I noted above, more penalties are being called in the early going, meaning that some teams will be killing more penalties, lowering the OZ% of those doing so. As such, a lower than expected OZ% isn't as concerning as it would be further down the road, that is unless the player also is not seeing much PP time. And teams are still tinkering with lines and usages.

Be careful not to overrate a player just because his OZ% is high. Quite often that occurs when a team is sheltering a player. What you want to see if both a high OZ% and a high TOI in general. A high OZ% but lowish overall TOI means a team is uncertain about the extent to which they can count on that player. In some cases though, a high OZ% leads to success, which leads to more TOI, while in others it can be the last step before the press box or the AHL/Juniors if a player fails to captizalize. There is no golden rule, but if a skater has an OZ% of 60%+ yet an overall ice time per game under 14:00 (if a forward) or 18:00 (if a defenseman) he's being sheltered and his future is uncertain. So if a tradeoff is having an OZ% of 55% instead of 60%+ but getting 17:00+ per game (forward) or 21:00+ (d-man) that is a net positive, since it's still a decent OZ% but a good bit more TOI overall.

SOG (Don't – just focus on a player's total; Do – look for consistency and trends, and focus on S/60)

No question SOG is a stat where you want to see your players having more, versus less. After all, even if SOGs are not resulting in goals, more SOG will help your fantasy team, or, even SOG isn't a category, will open the eyes of those who make decisions about line-ups and ice time.

Do not look only at a player's total. Why not? Because doing so would be analogous to looking at a student's GPA as a whole rather than what their test scores were. For example, which student would you say is a better bet to keep up an GPA of B, one who has test scores of B+, B, B-, B, A-, C+, or another who had A, A+, D, B-, A-, D+-? I'd say the first student, and the same holds true for SOG, as you want to see consistency, rather than someone who has been all over the place, both great but also bad.

Also, take the time to assess SOG/60 minutes. That's because those who aren't getting a lot of ice time yet are making the most out of it when it comes to firing pucks on net could perform better than those getting more ice time, not to mention by shooting a lot could pave the way to earning more ice time.

For those lucky enough to be on the PP, do note their average number of PP SOG per game. If a forward is on PP1 and taking the ice for 60%+ of his team's PP time, plus averages at least 2-3 SOG per game, I'd say he should be at or near one SOG per game. And if a player, other than a true pass first guy, isn't shooting on the PP, chances are the coaching staff will take notice, and he might end up ceding his spot to someone else.

Goalie Workloads (Don't – expect all to be normal right away; Do – focus on who had short offseasons) 

Even though goalies don't play 82 games like skaters, they are on the ice for all 60 minutes. Yes, in some stretches of the game they aren't doing anything, and they also don't have to expend energy skating up and down the ice like skaters, but they are definitely putting forth a lot of effort and often under the most stressful situations. As such, they need time to recuperate. The issue is if a goalie is on a very good team that goes deep into the playoffs, that goalie not only will be most likely starting every playoff game, but once the playoffs are over will have less time to recuperate. Look at Andrei Vasilevskiy – although he wasn't even 30, over the past few years so many games played and so many deep runs in the playoffs seemingly took their toll. As such, be prepared for possible let downs from workhorses (Sergei Bobrobsky, Jake Oettinger, Stuart Skinner) whose teams also played 10+ games in the playoffs.

And teams are cognizant that at least some goalies need time to get into their rhythm. As such, you might see even proven starters not playing two-thirds of games over the first month as would be expected. If that happens, don't panic, that is unless the workhorse is matched against weaker teams, as in that case his status as a cemented #1 might be more in doubt than was thought.

Teens (Don't – expect many 18 year olds to stay in the NHL; Do – pay attention to draft status)

Going back to 2000-01, a total of 32 forwards and defensemen played 41+ games in their age 18 season. That is barely one per season. So don't pin your hopes on them helping your team right away. That having been said, of those who did, nearly half hit the point per every other game mark; so if they do stick around, they could indeed contribute.

Not surprisingly, the number of 19-year-old rookies was much higher, with 120 playing 41+ games as a rookie. And although those who produced best also tended to do well over the long haul, plenty panned out very well despite not hitting the ground running, including the likes of Jesper Bratt, Nikolaj Ehlers, Robert Thomas, Eric Staal, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ales Hemsky, Tim Stutzle, Phil Kessel, Travis Konecny, David Perron, Drew Doughty, Morgan Rielly, Erik Karlsson, Tyler Seguin, Victor Hedman, and Dougie Hamilton. What did all of those players have in common? They were first round picks, meaning they were able to make the NHL sooner and their teams were patient with them, unlike some of the other teen rookies. So if a 19-year-old former first rounder disappoints as a rookie, don't necessarily write him off, as he should continue to get chances and, in many cases, pay dividends for your patience.

Those on the Waiver Wire (Don't – let early results sway you; Do – look at the big picture)

We've all seen it – a player no one had pegged for success thrives in the first few games (hi Paul Cotter!), leading to a stampede among GMs to pick him up. But in as many – if not more – cases than not, he doesn't pan out long term. You need to pause to ask yourself why this person wasn't already on someone's team, especially if your league is deep enough for 150-200 skaters to have been drafted. And remember that in picking up a player, you normally have to drop someone, and doing so can come back to haunt you.

This all having been said, there are indeed times to grab someone ASAP. For one, if your league allows unlimited moves and you either have a deep bench or can put someone on IR, then go for it, since if he is a one hit wonder, you can get rid of him as fast as you added him. But otherwise, even in the early going you have to factor things like lines, PP usage, positional eligibility, ability to produce well for your league's categories, and salary, among others, to get a true sense as to whether this is a player who is worth you grabbing.

Hits (Don't – assume early hit totals are normal; Do – look at how many hits there were overall)

What some don't pause to realize is that hits is a subjective stat, meaning it is up to those assessing that game whether something was or was not a hit. Although there isn't really a source that specifies where hits are more often called, that doesn't mean you can't do some deeper analysis. If you see that one player had a lot of hits in a game, ask yourself if he is normally a hitter, and, if not, see if there were others who racked up a good number of hits in the same contest, in which case the player on which you're focused might not have changed into someone who hits more, but instead he played in an arena where more hits are called, or even in a "chippy" game with players throwing around their bodies more than normal, which you can determine by looking at PIM.

Also, young players, particularly those who are either fighting to stay in the line-up or to show they can't be pushed around, might be prone to hitting more early on. That doesn't mean, however, they should be counted upon to continue doing so indefinitely. 

Top Six (Don't – assume top six spots lead to ample PP time; Do – be wary of guys bouncing around)

Back in the day, NHL teams pretty much all used two defensemen on PP1, and the three forward spots went to the three members of the first line. And PP2 would be two more d-men, plus those who were normally on the second line. It really was that simple. Not anymore.

Yes, most of the players on a team's top line will get PP time; however; not always on PP1. With a number of teams putting their PP1 out there for two-thirds or more of their PP time, those who don't get a coveted spot on PP1 might not see much PP time. Cases in point for 2023-24 were Brandon Hagel and Alexis Lafreniere, both of whom were cemented in the top six but barely sniffed the PP. That's because sometimes teams use players who don't slot into the top six on the PP. Last season that was the case for the likes of Nicholas Paul, Stefan Noesen, James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Johnson, Eeli Tolvanen, Cody Glass, Robby Fabbri, Dmitri Voronkov, Dominik Kubalik, Marcus Johansson, and Ryan Johansen to name some examples. On the flip side, players like Mikael Backlund, Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli, Charlie Coyle, Philipp Danault, Yanni Gourde, Nick Bjugstad, Trevor Moore, Alex Kerfoot, Dawson Mercer, and Jordan Greenway all averaged over 17:00 per game of overall TOI, but only a small fraction of that was on the PP. The lesson is before you rush to grab a player who is seemingly locked into a top six spot, make sure he also is getting PP time, since, of course, in most cases a PPPT is a double dip, meaning PPGs and PPAs also count as goals and assists.

Then what of teams where the top six is in flux? Or teams where rather than a top six they seem to have more of a top nine, with no line getting that much more ice time than the others? Those are situations which are not ideal for fantasy. Yes, in the early going many teams will try different combinations to see which ones work best. This is especially the case if players joined or left in the offseason. But even in those cases, there will be some who don't go in and out of the top six. They're who you want, as the others could just as easily end up in the bottom six as the top six, or, if their game is not well-rounded enough and they don't have a big contract, the press box. As for teams, like LA and Seattle in particular last season, which rolled out three lines but didn't especially favor one over the rest? That is great if you're trying to stock up on guys who produce in the 40-55 point range, but less so those who'll be 70+ point guys, as you need ice time for that to occur.

Talent (Don't – assume talent equates to production; Do – be more patient with talented players)

There is a trap that ensnares many in fantasy, which is they think that just because a player is talented means he will produce in line with that talent. We must remember that fantasy hockey is not real life, and these teams want to win, even if it wreaks havoc with your fantasy expectations. Case in point last season was Jason Robertson, who I think everyone can agree is a very, very talented player. But when even someone like him is barely in the top 90 in TOI per game among forwards who played in 41+ games, and outside the top 90 in PPTOI, that will throttle his production. Or to put it another way, quite often in fantasy just because someone is an objectively better player than another doesn't mean he will do better than that other player because of it.

By the same token, however, talent does buy opportunity. Teams are not blind to players who are more skilled than others, giving them a longer leash and trying to position them for success so long as it also leads to success as a team. So if a player has high IPPs and 5×5 team SH%, teams will notice that and will likely let that player play through slumps more so than others who are iffy in those areas.

Making Trades (Don't – turn trades into FPS; Do – take advantage of other panicking GMs)

As those of you who post there know, I'm quite active in the DobberHockey forums, which are an invaluable resource. QPPuite often, posters will ask for opinions on trades they're thinking of making. In far too many cases these are trades with three, four, or even five or more players swapping sides, or are attempts to cover several bases all at once. The term I use for that is FPS, which stands for fancy play syndrome and basically says that the more complex or convoluted a trade is, the more there is a chance for it to not work out as hoped. I know it's boring, but early on try to focus on trades where only one or two players are coming or going. If possible, trade players at the same position(s). Otherwise, there is a much higher likelihood of the trade going wrong, or you being convinced by a shrewd GM that the trade is great for you when, in truth, it isn't. Later in the season is when to get more creative. 

I realize that just like pick-ups, there is a desire to trade early and often. Unless you're dealing with a season-long injury or something else that causes you to have to radically reexamine things, you are often better off having a mindset of playing the waiting game on trades. Let the dust settle a bit. Sure, maybe you went 0-2 in your first two weeks of H2H; that doesn't mean you necessarily need to blow things up. My general rule is early trades should be made if there are limits on free agent moves or you can fleece another GM who is panicking.

That brings up another point, which is let's say you do practice patience and don't rush out to initiate trades right away. That doesn't stop other GMs from approaching you. If they do, then your mindset should be to not be afraid to play hardball, but respectfully. If their offer isn't enough of a clear win for you, just politely tell them no. They will likely ask you to counter, at which point you should tell them you're inclined to stand pat, but they should feel free to reshape the offer. Often they won't, but there are poolies who are so hell bent on trading, or are just panicking, that they end up making a deal that is lopsided enough for you to say yes. It's all about the power you have to say no, or to walk away.

Multi-cat players (Don't – think of them as scarce; Do – try to grab ones who aren't one dimensional)

Although it is true players who hit, block shots, take shots, and score are a rare breed and rightfully coveted in fantasy. That is certainly not the case when it comes to those who are not scorers. The expression I use is scoring does not grow on trees, but those who can be plugged in so as to help in other areas do. So don't go crazy at your drafts obsessing about players who stuff the stat sheet but don't score as much, as scoring is still what normally wins leagues, especially since, as noted above, a PPG or PPA also counts as a goal or assist, and a goal or assist usually results in a +1 for the player(s) involved. That kind of double dipping in not the case with other categories. Yes, high volume shooters are more likely to score goals, but things like Hits, Blocks, and PIM stand on their own. Also, if you're hitting, blocking shots, or getting PIM often, you run the risk of injury, and that's less so with players who shy away from those activities.

If you do try to grab a player for his SOG, HIT, BLK, or PIM, try to double dip. For d-men, ideally they both hit and block, while for forwards it's all the better if they shoot too, even just 1 or 1.5 SOG per game, plus give you at least a block every other game. And in all instances, do try to get ones who are +, if your league counts that as a category. I know it sounds like an oxymoron, but one-dimensional multi-cat guys exist and you should try to look elsewhere.

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Let me end by again stressing that not everything I wrote is "one size fits all," meaning it will depend on your league, its format, its categories, etc. But I feel that even if what I wrote doesn't apply to you in particular, it is still something worth keeping in the back of your mind, arguably more so the "dont's" than the "dos" since the former can often hurt you even more so than the latter can help you. Again, best of luck for all of you and your fantasy teams!

Questions for Mailbag Column

Got questions about your team, or certain players? Send them to me so I can answer them in my upcoming monthly mailbag. To get questions to me, you can either private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line.