Ramblings: What To Do with Georgiev, Jarry; Oettinger Signs Extension, Matheson Injured (Oct 18)
Ian Gooding
2024-10-18
We're barely a week into the season, and already the questions are pouring in about whether to drop a struggling goalie. In fact, it's a usual rite of passage of every fantasy hockey season. This season, the goalies happen to be Alexandar Georgiev and Tristan Jarry.
I didn't expand on the stats too much when I discussed their situations on Sunday, but today I'll just lay the cards on the table.
To start with Georgiev, three of his four games have been of the really bad variety (with a sub-.850 SV%), with the other game only marginally better at .865 SV%. Hopefully you didn't draft him at around his Yahoo ADP at 54; otherwise, you're taking a high sunk cost. In other words, the only goalie you might find that can replicate that ranking is one that starts about once a week at most and can keep ratios low – similar to Anthony Stolarz last season.
Georgiev and the Avs won't likely be this bad all season and should eventually string together some wins once they become healthy, even if the wins are of the empty-calorie 5-4 or 6-5 variety. He should still receive the starts since Justus Annunen is inexperienced and Kaapo Kahkonen is a shot in the dark. Your bench is probably the best place for Georgiev right now. I'm not dropping him, though. After all, he has more wins than any other goalie dating back to 2022-23.
I'm more in agreement about dropping Jarry outright. He was a later-round pick in fantasy drafts, and he may not be starting so often once Alex Nedeljkovic returns. Nedeljkovic has been activated from injured reserve and is on an AHL conditioning assignment. In fact, it wouldn't be a complete shocker if Jarry is placed on waivers once Ned returns. Joel Blomqvist posted strong AHL numbers last season (25-12-6, 2.16 GAA, .921 SV), but he is still at a young age for a goalie (22 years old). Regardless, the Pens are banking on at least one last dance with their veteran core, so they cannot afford to be patient with Jarry for much longer.
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The Stars have made a long-term commitment to Jake Oettinger, signing him to an eight-year, $66 million contract. That term of eight years and cap hit of $8.25 million is exactly the same as the contract that Jeremy Swayman recently signed, although Oettinger's contract is set to begin next season. Oettinger and Swayman are easy goalies to compare because they are the same age (25) and should be their teams' long-term starting goalies while their teams are in their contention windows.
Oettinger was on the bench on Thursday, giving Casey DeSmith his second start as a Star. DeSmith allowed three goals on 26 shots in a 3-2 loss to Washington, which is the Stars' first loss of the season.
Tom Wilson has scored goals in three consecutive games to start the season. He shouldn't be on your league's waiver wire if you are in a bangers league.
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The Columbus Blue Jackets were supposed to have trouble scoring this season, yet they've potted 15 goals over their last three games. Included in that is a 6-4 win over Buffalo on Thursday where Kirill Marchenko and Mathieu Olivier each scored a goal and added an assist. Marchenko is tied for the team lead in scoring with Yegor Chinakhov with six points each. They form what appears to be the Jackets' top line with Sean Monahan.
Zach Werenski chipped in a pair of assists, giving him four points in four games. Among defensemen, only Dougie Hamilton has taken more shots than Werenski this season (20 SOG). Hamilton has four more shots than Werenski while playing in three more games. I made a huge bid to land Werenski in one of my keeper leagues this season, so I'm happy with what I see so far. My biggest concern is whether he will stay healthy.
It wasn't all good for the Jackets on Thursday, as Kent Johnson left the game with an upper-body injury. Aaron Portzline is reporting that Johnson looks like he will miss time with the injury, although more is expected to be known today (Friday).
In the loss, Jiri Kulich scored his first NHL goal for the Sabres while taking five shots on goal. Kulich was on an under-25 line with Dylan Cozens and Zach Benson. I've noticed myself mentioning age multiple times regarding the Sabres, so this is a good time to tell you that Jason Zucker is the only player on their roster who has celebrated his 30th birthday.
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Is it time to be worried about Elias Pettersson? In four games, Pettersson has just one assist and has a combined six shots. Things could change very quickly for a player of his talent level, but his late-season slowdown (4 G in last 18 GP) and underwhelming playoff performance (1 G and 6 PTS in 13 GP) have carried into the regular season. He might be more focused defensively, as his hit and blocked shot totals both match his shot total. Petey was credited with three hits and four blocked shots on Thursday. He's worth a buy-low attempt, but keep in mind that he isn't at the top of his game right now. Not sure whether that's due to a nagging injury or just a lack of confidence.
This is also concerning:
In the Canucks' first win of the season, Quinn Hughes scored a goal and added an assist while taking nine shots.
With injuries to Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, Anton Lundell has landed on Florida's top power play. He also scored a power-play goal on that top power play. Lundell is up to four goals and six points in six games, picking up where he left off after looking strong in the playoffs (17 PTS in 24 GP). At 23 years of age, Lundell appears to have some untapped potential.
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Mike Matheson left Thursday's game against LA with an upper-body injury. With Matheson's injury, Lane Hutson picked up over four minutes of power-play time and 30 minutes overall in this game. Hutson did not register a point in this game and was a minus-2, giving him a minus-6 rating over his past two games. It might be the natural talent and upside, but the 20-year-old Hutson is already receiving a lot more rope than defensemen that fit his profile of being undersized and offensively-minded. Or it might be the fact he literally has the puck on a string.
Should Matheson miss any time, Hutson should instantly be moved to the top power play, and he'll make a strong case to remain there permanently. He's already rostered in over half of Yahoo leagues, so it might be too late to add him.
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If you were thinking Artemi Panarin would regress after his 120-point season, I'm here to tell you he is picking up right where he left off. Panarin recorded a hat trick and an assist on Thursday, with all but one of the goals on the power play. So far Panarin has multiple points in each of his four games, which is enough to tie him with fellow Russian Evgeni Malkin for the league scoring lead at 11 points. Panarin has played one fewer game than Malkin as well.
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You could say the same for Nikita Kucherov after his 144-point season. With a pair of goals on Thursday, Kucherov has scored goals in each of his three games, giving him a league-leading six goals. Kuch hasn't been shy about shooting the puck either, as he has taken at least five shots in each of his three games.
J.J. Moser scored his first goal as a member of the Lightning while adding a pair of assists with a plus-3 and three shots.
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Sometimes we say a player's hot production isn't sustainable because he doesn't have the right linemates. But what if a productive run in the bottom 6 leads to in an opportunity on the top line? That's what happening to Paul Cotter, who was promoted to the Devils' top line with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt on Thursday. Cotter scored another goal on Thursday, giving him five goals in seven games. He will cool down in the goal-scoring department no matter who the linemates are. However, a pickup (18% Yahoo/47% Fantrax) is more justified if he is on a scoring line. Especially if your league also counts hits. Cotter has 20 of them this season and over 200 last season.
In the Devils' 3-1 win over Ottawa, Jacob Markstrom stopped 30 of 31 shots he faced. Markstrom has faced at least 30 shots in four of the five games he has played for the Devils.
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According to Frank Seravalli, Sean Durzi is expected to be sidelined for 4-5 months, as he will undergo surgery. Durzi was injured after taking a hit in a Monday game against New Jersey. That timeline would result in Durzi returning to the lineup sometime in February or March, so this would be a lengthy absence. Utah is already without John Marino, so its blueline is already dealing with multiple injuries. Expect Juuso Valimaki to see more power-play time, which could breathe some life into his fantasy value.
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If I missed anything important from game action on Thursday, I'll try to pick it up tomorrow. In the meantime, follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads.
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Anyone know why Jack Quinn did not play last night?
Quinn was healthy scratched. https://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-jack-quinn-scratched-against-blue-jackets-jiri-kulich-moves-in/