Ramblings: Updates on Durzi, Marino, and Thomas; Dubois’s Big Night; Rangers Rolling; Anaheim’s Power Play; Early Shot Rates – October 24

Michael Clifford

2024-10-24

Maveric Lamoureux has been called up by Utah. The 29th overall pick from 2022 had three points in four games to start his AHL season in Tucson, but is already with the team as they look to rebound from their 4-0 loss at the hands of Ottawa. Utah is at home to Colorado on Thursday.

The Lamoureux recall was necessary because of some bad news from Utah as Sean Durzi had shoulder surgery and will be out a minimum of four months while John Marino had a back surgery and is out a minimum of three months:

That is a big blow to the blue line to lose both defenders, even if Marino has yet been able to suit up in a game. This could be a good chance for Lamoureux, though, so let's see what he does with it.

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St. Louis provided an update on Robert Thomas after leaving Tuesday's game following a blocked shot and it wasn't good:

Six weeks isn't the end of the world, but it is a huge blow to both the team and to fantasy managers.

In a subsequent move, the Blues activated Oscar Sundqvist from the IR.

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On the good news injury front, both Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce were front and centre for Devils practice on Wednesday:

The team would not commit to them playing Thursday night in Detroit, but it certainly looks as if they're getting ready to welcome both back to the lineup sometime this weekend. New Jersey is at home Friday to the New York Islanders before hosting Anaheim on Sunday.

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There was just one game on Wednesday night with the Philadelphia Flyers heading into Washington to face the Capitals for the second time in two days.

The Capitals got an early lead thanks to a deflection goal from Taylor Raddysh before expanding their advantage to 4-0 thanks to second-period goals from Nic Dowd and Connor McMichael (x2). Washington seemed to have the game firmly in hand before Travis Konecny (PP), Owen Tippett, and Matvei Michkov (PP) peeled off three straight tallies to bring it to a one goal game. That's as close as they would get, though, as Pierre-Luc Dubois and Alex Ovechkin scored empty-net tallies to seal the 6-3 win.

Dubois finished the game with that goal, two assists, four shots, a block, four PIMs, and a hit in a fantastic multi-cat effort. McMichael's two goals now give him eight points in six games on the season.

Rasmus Sandin had a great multi-cat night with two assists, two shots, and five blocks.

Michkov ended up with a goal and an assist, both on the PP, while Owen Tippett had that PP goal and an assist as well. Jamie Drysdale had two PP helpers for his first multi-point game in a Flyers uniform, adding three blocks along the way.

Logan Thompson stopped 26 of 29 shots for the win.

*

The New York Rangers are off to a great start with a 5-0-1 record while outscoring their opposition 31-12. What sticks out to me immediately is not the Artemi PanarinVincent TrocheckAlexis Lafreniere line, though they have been great, but it's the first and third lines.

To start with, this is how the Chris Kreider/Mika Zibanejad duo fared per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 from 2021-2024, and how they've fared so far in 2024-25 (data from Natural Stat Trick):  

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 2021-24 (2495:55 TOI)2024-25 (59:07 TOI)
Shot attempts/6058.161.9
Shots/6031.835.1
High-Danger Attempts/6012.818.0
Expected Goals For/602.73.2
Goals For/602.93.1

It is a small sample, and half their games have come against Detroit or Montreal, so this obviously has to be taken with a huge grain of salt. However, things have been going well offensively with Reilly Smith on their line, which gives some hope this line can be productive at 5-on-5 again. Let's see how this goes, but with how good the power play is, if this line can be considerably above average offensively, it changes their fortunes as a whole – especially those of Mika Zibanejad.

As for the third line, they are controlling 58.5% of the shot attempts, have outscored the opposition 7-0, and have more than double the high-danger shot attempts (20-9). They have been completely dominant with Filip Chytil healthy and Will Cuylle fitting in nicely on the wing opposite Kaapo Kakko.

New York is currently top-3 in the league by shot attempt share, expected goal share, and high-danger attempt share at 5-on-5. With their elite power play and Igor Shesterkin in net, they are looking like an even better squad than the one that won the Presidents' Trophy last season. We obviously need a lot more than a six-game sample, but this isn't a team riding a hot power play or an elite goalie. They look like a complete roster, and not only is that great news for Rangers fans, but it's tremendous news for fantasy owners who took the plunge on the likes of Zibanejad, Smith, Cuylle, or Jacob Trouba.

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Again, we're only three weeks into the season (including the games in Europe), but when do we get worried about the Anaheim power play? Aside from games when they're facing San Jose, that is.

Last season, the Ducks finished 23rd by goals per minute with the man advantage. Not good, but not awful, and considering all the young talent they have, it seemed the opportunity was there to improve somewhere closer towards the middle of the league.

Well, so far in 2024-25, the only team with a lower per-minute goal rate on the power play than Anaheim is Buffalo, and that's because Buffalo hasn't scored on the power play yet this season. They aren't lacking opportunities, either, as they've drawn 23 power plays in six games, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

Sometimes, we don't really need to worry about a power play because there's a track record of success; Edmonton fits that bill so far this season. However, Anaheim doesn't have that track record and, as a team, they're generating 1.37 shot attempts per minute of PPTOI. That is the fourth-lowest rate in the league, and things get even worse if we include just 5-on-4 situations (last in the league).

Frozen Tools has the Ducks with nine (!) different forwards combinations to earn at least one minute of PPTOI through six games. None of St. Louis, Montreal, Vancouver, or Winnipeg – the next four worst teams by 5-on-4 shot attempts per minute – have more than six combinations. Anaheim seems like they'll be tinkering until something goes right, but this was a concern of mine in the offseason when doing their projections, and it will continue to be a concern until they show us something.

*

In my Ramblings a couple of days ago, I wrote about early hit and block rates across the league. While perusing some other stats, I became intrigued by shot rates.

According to Hockey Reference, as of Wednesday afternoon, teams are averaging 29.3 shots per game. If that were to hold, it would be the lowest mark in an 82-game season since 2007-08, and the lowest for any season since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 schedule.  

What is curious about that is that according to Frozen Tools, shot rates typically decline as the season wears on:

  • Total shots per game in October of 2023 was 61.5. In March of 2024, that number fell to 59.2, and it landed at 59.1 the next month.
  • Total shots per game in October of 2022 was 63.0. In March of 2023, that number fell to 61.2, and it landed at 61.3 the next month.

Shots went up slightly throughout the 2021-22 season, but we were still dealing with the pandemic and rampant absences in the league, so I'd rather read into the two recent, normal seasons than the abnormal one three years ago.

What is even more curious is how shots are being distributed. There is no question that defencemen have been much more involved than they were even five years ago, but the shot rates have wildly changed. Here is the share of shots by position from 2022-23, 2023-24, and thus far in 2024-25:

 Defence Share of Total ShotsForward Share of Total Shots
2022-2327.8%72.2%
2023-2426.9%73.1%
2024-2528.1%71.9%

A decline in shots from forwards of 73.1% to 71.9% might not seem like a lot, but over the course of a full season, and based off shot rates from 2023-24, it would be anywhere from 900-1000 shots from forwards. If the league's current shot rate of 29.3 per team per game in 2024-25 holds, a rate of 71.9% of shots from forwards would be about 2500 fewer shots from forwards as compared to the 2023-24 season. That is… a lot of shots.

It is still early days of the season, so this is worth revisiting maybe in a month or so, but it is something to keep in mind as we set barometers for acceptable shot rates in fantasy leagues at each position. The game is constantly changing, and we need to update what we think we know along with it. It is nothing to really concern ourselves with, but if these rates hold steady, it will impact how we view and evaluate skaters.

Just for fun: right now, there are nine defencemen with at least five games played that are averaging at least three shots per game. Last season, there were only three defencemen who averaged at least three shots per appearance, and one of them was Dougie Hamilton, and he played just 20 games. There were also no defencemen who managed north of 3.5 shots per game in 2023-24, and right now there are two (Cale Makar, Brandon Montour) who've managed at least 4.0 shots per game.

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