Ramblings: Kaprizov Top of Scoring Race; Selling Seattle, Buying Bruins & Islanders; Dostal’s Dominance (Oct 30)
Brennan Des
2024-10-30
Hi friends, it's Brennan filling in for the handsome and talented Alex MacLean today, but fear not, he should be back next week. Let's get right into Tuesday's action!
The Bruins-Flyers game featured two goaltenders with hideous numbers to start the year. Joonas Korpisalo and his .850 SV% + 4.57 GAA went up against Samuel Ersson and his .872 SV% + 3.56 GAA. Naturally, they combined for just one goal against as Philly took this one 2-0, with Joel Farabee adding an empty netter late. Korpisalo was solid and showed he can be a serviceable option against weaker opponents. Although his previous two performances as a Bruin were bad, he was up against the powerhouse Panthers and Avalanche.
Boston's scoring woes have been a major storyline this season. After scoring 10 goals in their first two contests, the Bruins have managed just 17 goals in their last eight, or 2.13 per game. San Jose is the only team with fewer goals per game during that span. It's no coincidence that Charlie McAvoy hasn't registered a point in his last eight appearances.
Now, many of the team's fantasy relevant players are sporting abnormally low on-ice shooting percentages (the percentage of shots for that player’s team, while that player is on the ice, that were goals – via NaturalStatTrick), so I imagine there will be some bounceback as the season progresses. I'm not eager to invest in Boston's offense given what we've seen so far, but if you're getting a heavy discount, it might be the right play from a value perspective.
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Tuesday's clash with the Kraken added another page to the book of Montreal's defensive woes this season. The Habs entered this game with the league's highest expected goals against (via Natural StatTrick) and proceeded to make error after error as they surrendered eight against Seattle. The Canadiens will soon get some help from Kaiden Guhle, who was wearing a regular jersey during morning skate and seems on the verge of a return.
Sam Montembeault was excellent in Montreal's first two games, but since then, his numbers have been awful. He sports a 5.51 GAA and .829 SV% in his last five outings, with Tuesday marking the second time during this stretch that he's been pulled. While he's shown solid individual ability, I don't think it's enough to overcome his team's defensive flaws. Montreal's young blue line will likely need some time to develop before Montembeault becomes a reliable fantasy option.
Another game, another goal for Cole Caufield. He's tied with Nico Hischier for most goals this season, boasting nine through 10 appearances.
Juraj Slafkovksy returned to the lineup after missing Montreal's last three contests with an upper-body injury. Although he started the game on line two away from Nick Suzuki and Caufield, he was reunited with his usual linemates early on as the game quickly got out of hand. Slafkovsky got the primary assist on Caufield's goal.
Lane Hutson failed to find the scoresheet and now has just one point in his last seven outings after posting four in his first three. Despite the lack of tangible production, he's been creating some impressive offense these past games, so if someone is panicking and cutting bait early, I encourage you to capitalize on their haste. This kid is the real deal.
Seattle's scoring barrage featured three power-play goals on six opportunities, helping the team jump from a 15.4% success rate to 21.9%. It's a good reminder that we're still early in the season and single-game outbursts can have a big effect on overall numbers. Speaking of which…
With four assists on Tuesday – three of which were secondary – Chandler Stephenson went from 0.44 points per game to 0.80 points per game on the season. His overall offensive numbers look decent as a result of this one game, but he hasn't looked good enough to warrant a roster spot in most fantasy leagues, even though he's seeing 20 minutes a night.
It's a similar story for Brandon Montour, who managed a hat trick and assist against the Canadiens, jumping from 0.50 to 0.90 points per game. He's seeing just 54% of Seattle's time with the man advantage, which isn't enough opportunity to match the 73-point campaign he posted two seasons ago in Florida. During that year, he held a 74% share of the Panthers' power-play time and racked up 33 points with the man advantage. The three PPPs he registered against the Habs on Tuesday were his first three of this season.
Unlike Stephenson and Montour, Jared McCann's multipoint night against Montreal was not an anomaly, as he's registered a point in eight of 10 appearances this year. His 14 points place him in the top 10 for league scoring. Despite McCann's consistency thus far, his astronomical on-ice and individual shooting percentages are indicators he won't be able to keep up this pace all season.
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Anything you can do; I can do better. That's what the Sens said to Seattle's 8-2 thumping of Montreal as they dismantled St. Louis by a slightly more impressive 8-1 scoreline. Joel Hofer gave up five goals on 21 shots, but Jordan Binnington wasn't much better in relief, giving up 3 on 14.
In contrast, Linus Ullmark was solid when called upon, stopping 26 of the 27 shots he faced. Ullmark's overall numbers may seem substandard given the lucrative deal he recently signed, but it's important to consider he's had just four starts so far. Two of them were good, and the two that were bad included a game where he got injured, and then the first game back from that injury. He's got a good team in front of him and I'm optimistic about what the rest of the season holds if he can stay healthy.
Tim Stützle was the biggest beneficiary of Ottawa's offensive explosion, tallying two goals and two assists. He has 14 points through nine games and is on track to flirt with a 100-point pace, as he did two seasons ago.
Brady Tkachuk posted two goals, while Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson each had two assists. All three players boast above point-per-game rates on the season. 10 of Ottawa's 12 forwards registered a point on Tuesday.
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It's Lukas Dostal's world, and we're all just living in it. 41 shots against, 40 saves. That's four-straight games where he's allowed just two goals or fewer. The inexperienced team in front of him gives up plenty of opportunities but he's stood tall time and time again, posting 30+ saves in five of his seven appearances this year. Small sample be damned, a healthy John Gibson is not stealing the net from him. Now, it's important to keep in mind that Dostal is just 24 years old and this brilliance will be hard to maintain all season, especially considering the team in front of him is still developing, but there's no harm riding this wave for as long as it lasts.
Troy Terry extended his point streak to eight games with his goal on Tuesday. 19-year-old Leo Carlsson also scored and has four goals in his last seven outings.
I wrote above about Boston's offensive struggles, but I'd be remiss if I didn't highlight that the Islanders are very much in the same boat. It's been all-or-nothing for most of the season as they've scored four or more in four games but have also been shutout in three. They need to be more consistent, especially on the power play, where they currently rank 29th with a 13.3% success rate. There's been a lot of experimenting with different personnel, but it seems they've recently gone back to the combination of Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri and Noah Dobson, which clicked at a respectable 20.4% last year. I'd be trying to buy low on Barzal and Horvat because their on-ice shooting percentages are less than half of what you'd expect over a full season, so some favourable corrections should be coming as the campaign progresses.
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With plans to retire at the end of this season, Tuesday's game in Pittsburgh was Marc-Andre Fleury's last hurrah – barring a Stanley Cup Final matchup against the Penguins – in the city he called home for a decade. The Wild helped him secure a 5-3 victory over his former club.
Minnesota was led by three-point outings from Frederick Gaudreau and Kirill Kaprizov – a rarity for the former and a regular day for the latter. Those were Gaudreau's first three points of the campaign as he mostly plays a depth role in Minny, but Kaprizov is now up to 18 points through nine games, putting him in a tie with Mark Stone for the league scoring lead.
Marco Rossi, who registered an assist on Tuesday, has benefited from centering Kaprizov this year. Rossi, who's just 23 years old and only has one full season under his belt, already has eight points through nine appearances despite seeing minimal power-play time.
From Pittsburgh's end, Rickard Rakell made the most of his promotion to a line with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, tallying two goals. After posting just one point in his last five games, Sid racked up three assists against his old netminder.
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The Capitals outshot the Rangers 46-19 en route to a 5-3 victory Tuesday. The sample is still small, but advanced stats paint a rosy picture of this Washington team. It seems their little offseason retool is paying off so far. One area they'll need to improve, however, is the power play. They rank second last in the league with a success rate of 7.4% after going 0 for 4 on Tuesday.
39 years old and still a multicategory beast. With two goals on Tuesday, Alex Ovechkin has tickled twine four times in his last five outings. He's supplementing near point-per-game play with 3.25 shots and 3.25 hits per game.
Riding shotgun beside Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome is paying dividends for Aliaksei Protas, who tallied a goal and two assists against the Rangers, giving him seven points through eight games this year.
It takes nine letters to be a good hockey player: 'Connor Mc'.
McDavid may be injured, but Connor McMichael has been a master of on-ice ceremonies lately. A goal against the Rangers gives him nine points through eight appearances. Drafted 25th overall in 2019, a great start to the season sets McMichael up for a big step forward in his development this year. That said, he's riding some unsustainably high shooting percentages right now, so don't expect this pace to last all season. Regardless, considering he's rostered in just 10% of Yahoo Leagues, it won't cost much to add him to your roster and ride this hot streak while it lasts.
Chris Kreider's Cy-Young bid continues as he now has six goals and zero assists after scoring against the Capitals. This broke a bit of a cold spell for Kreider as he failed to tally a point in his previous three appearances. His ice time – like line mate Mika Zibanejad – is down roughly a minute and a half relative to last year. That's likely due to New York's other lines playing so well. Speaking of which, that third line of Will Cuylle, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko stayed hot on Thursday as Cuylle and Chytil scored, while Kakko chipped in an assist. They've combined for 22 points through nine games – which is simply outstanding considering they're averaging ~14 minutes a night. The Rangers' deep offense makes them a force to be reckoned with this year.
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24 hours after a shocking comeback against Utah to secure their first win of the campaign, the Sharks decided to make winning a habit, beating the Kings 4-2 on Tuesday. They were led by Jake Walman, who registered a goal and two assists, giving him back-to-back three-point games.
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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!