Buffalo had a thrilling game with Montreal on Monday afternoon resulting in 12 goals and multiple lead changes. Besides the loss, the Sabres had some bad news as all of Tage Thompson, Mattias Samuelsson, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen left the game with injuries. There was an update on Wednesday as to the status of all three players, and there is some good and some bad:

Tage Thompson, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Mattias Samuelsson aren't practicing with the Sabres this morning.

An emergency goalie is here filling in for UPL.

— Lance Lysowski (@LLysowski) November 13, 2024

Thompson and Luukkonen are considered day-to-day, but Mattias Samuelsson will be out longer as his issue requires surgery. He is not expected to miss the rest of the season, but is expected to have an extended absence.

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A good update for Robert Thomas:

Didn't expect to see this today but Robert Thomas is on the ice. Wearing a blue no-contact jersey but nonetheless, skating. #stlblues

— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) November 13, 2024

The Blues will be discussed a little later in these Ramblings, but Thomas was expected out at least six weeks and it's only been three. It is a huge deal for this team to get him back as soon as possible.

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An update from San Jose on Jake Walman as well:

Walman is taking the first run-throughs with Ceci when the next drill starts. #SJSharks

— Max Miller (@Real_Max_Miller) November 13, 2024

Whether healthy scratched or injury, Walman has missed a few games for the Sharks, but is a possibility to return on Thursday night when the Sharks head into New York to face the Rangers.

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Boston announced that defenceman Hampus Lindholm will be out 'weeks' due to a lower-body injury. Hopefully it is on the shorter end and he can be back by the end of the month, but for now, it appears Charlie McAvoy will get his top power play role back. This should mean more minutes for Nikita Zadorov, as a left-handed shot, but we may see some funky defence pairs until Lindholm returns.

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Simon Edvinsson scored his second goal of the season for Detroit, and a timely one at that as it lifted the Red Wings to a 3-2 overtime win in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. Patrick Kane had an assist on that goal, and scored a power play goal earlier, totaling two shots and a block on the night. Kane is now up to 10 points in 15 games on the season, but half those points have come on the power play. If that ever dries up…

Edvinsson finished the game with that one goal on four shots, three blocks, and 22:54 in ice time. Only Moritz Seider skated more as Edvinsson has kind of become the number-2 defenceman on the team.

Cam Talbot stopped 32 of 34 shots for the win.

With that loss, the Penguins have now lost 10 of their last 13 games after starting the season 3-2.

Bryan Rust scored one goal for Pittsburgh, managing four total shots on target, while Anthony Beauvillier scored his fifth goal of the season. Kris Letang had five shots, five blocks, and a hit for a good multi-cat night without point production.

Alex Nedeljkovic allowed three goals on 31 shots in the loss.

Blake Lizotte took the third-line centre role with Lars Eller gone but was injured and did not play the final two periods.  

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Washington was looking to keep the good times rolling and had a 3-1 lead late at home to Toronto on Wednesday night. The top line kept doing their thing as both Dylan Strome and Aliaksei Protas tallied goals while Protas and Alex Ovechkin each had an assist. Strome now has five goals and 23 points in 15 games on the season while Protas is back on a point-per-game pace with six goals and nine assists.

However, William Nylander scored with about four minutes left in the third, and Mitch Marner scored another with under a minute left, to push Washington's seemingly assured 3-1 win to a 3-3 game in overtime.

John Tavares played the hero by scoring his ninth of the season with 50 seconds left in OT to give the Leafs an improbable 4-3 overtime win.

Bobby McMann finished the game with one goal on eight shots to go with two hits in 18:24 of ice time. Maybe he will see a much bigger role with Max Pacioretty injured as he's crested the 15-minute mark in back-to-back games for just the second time this season.

Nylander had a goal and an assist on two shots, and is now up to 20 points in 18 games, though he is shooting nearly 20% after being under 14% for four straight seasons.

Morgan Rielly had an assist, five shots, and two blocks. After a so-so-start to the season, he now has 13 points in 18 games with two shots per game.

Joseph Woll took hung on for the win, stopping 23 of 26 shots.

Logan Thompson took the loss for the Caps, his first of the season, allowing four goals on 35 shots.  

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Nick Bjugstad was on the top line for Utah on Wednesday night, skating between Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, and scored twice en route to Utah beating Carolina by a 4-1 margin. Bjugstad finished the game with three shots, a block, two PIMs, and a hit for a great fantasy night. Just beware that he's still not getting power play time so he'll have to do the vast majority of his fantasy production at even strength.

Jack McBain and Mikhail Sergachev had the other goals for Utah. Sergachev registered two shots and six blocks, and is now up to 3 goals, 8 assists, 28 shots, 32 blocks, and 10 hits in 16 games.

Aside from Bjugstad, goalie Karel Vejmelka had an outstanding performance in net, saving 49 of 50 shots that Carolina sent his way. That performance pushed him to a .926 save percentage, but it was his first win in four starts.

Martin Necas kept his hot streak going by scoring Carolina's lone goal (PP). Shayne Gostisbehere assisted on that goal, adding a shot, a block, and two hits. He now has 10 points in 15 games.

Pyotr Kochetkov allowed three goals on 18 shots for the loss. To make matters worse, he looked to have injured himself at some point early in the third period and was taken out of the game. There are no updates, but with Frederik Andersen still week-to-week, goaltending duties would fall to Spencer Martin if Kochetkov misses any time.

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Colorado's top line did what Colorado's top line does and that's carry the Avalanche to a win. They escaped their game with Los Angeles on Wednesday night with a 4-2 win as Mikko Rantanen had a natural hat trick, added an assist, totaled seven shots, and added a hit in the win. Nathan MacKinnon had a trio of helpers with three shots and a hit while Artturi Lehkonen had a goal, assist, three shots, a block, and a hit. In the five games since Lehkonen's return, the top line has 12 goals, 17 assists, and 59 shots combined. That seems good.

Cale Makar had an assist, a shot, and a block in the win. He is up to 25 points in 17 games played, which also seems good.

Alexandar Georgiev faced just 15 shots and stopped 13 of them for his third straight win. In four November starts, he is 3-1 with a .913 save percentage and 2.25 goals against average.

Trevor Moore was left on the top line for Los Angeles, and the new top line had a pair of goals, both from Adrian Kempe. He totaled four shots, a block, and a hit with those two goals. Both Moore and Anze Kopitar assisted on the two goals, with Moore having a block and a hit while Kopitar had a lone shot.

Darcy Kuemper started the game and allowed two goals on 20 shots before being pulled in the third period due to injury. David Rittich would be the presumptive starter, but Los Angeles has just one game in the next six days, so if it's not an extended absence, there may not be much work for Rittich.

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Tomas Hertl (PP), Pavel Dorofeyev, and Nicolas Roy all scored for Vegas as they took a 3-2 win in Anaheim on Wednesday night. Hertl had five total shots with a hit, Dorofeyev had four total shots, and Roy had five of his own with a block. Dorofeyev was also moved to the top line with Jack Eichel after the first period as Roy was moved to Hertl's line.

Shea Theodore had a pair of assists, one of them on Hertl's power play goal, to go with three shots and a pair of blocks. Theodore does have 13 points in 15 games, which is tremendous, but has just two shots per game, under a block per game, and just one hit on the season, so there isn't much for multi-cat value.

Adin Hill stopped 22 of 24 shots for the win.

Brock McGinn and Frank Vatrano scored for Anaheim. Vatrano had six shots, a block, and two hits for a solid multi-cat night. He now has two goals on the year, but is shooting just 4.3%. He averaged 11.7% across his first two seasons with Anaheim, so once that starts regressing positively, the goals will come in abundance.

Lukas Dostal made 36 saves but the three goals against were enough for the loss. He has a .922 save percentage on the season, but just four wins. In fact, the other five goalies with at least 10 starts and a .915 save percentage are averaging a win every 1.6 starts where Dostal is at one win every three starts. Goal support is a pain.

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We are about 20% of the way into the season so there are roster decisions that need to be made. There are always indicators of regression, both positive and negative, and two key marks are Individual Points Percentage (IPP) and on-ice shooting percentage (OISH%). IPP is simply the rate at which a player garners a point when the team scores with that player on the ice, and OISH% is the team's conversion rate on shots with that player on the ice. Let's set some benchmarks to look at:

• In 2023-24, there were 245 forwards with at least 1000 total minutes. Four of those 245 forwards had an 80% IPP, and none were higher than 83%. Only 18 of those 245 forwards managed at least 75%.
• In 2023-24, there were 131 defencemen with at least 1200 total minutes. Only one of those 131 defencemen reached a 60% IPP (Shayne Gostisbehere, 60.9%). Just eight of those 131 defencemen reached 55%.
• Of those 245 forwards with at least 1000 total minutes, only three reached at least 15% OISH% (J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, and Nikita Kucherov). About a quarter of them (59/245) reached at least 12%.
• Of those 131 defencemen with at least 1200 total minutes, only three (Quinn Hughes, Victor Hedman, and Cale Makar) had an OISH% of at least 13%, and none reached 14%. About a quarter of them (34/131) reached at least 11%.

So, our benchmarks are that anything higher than 80% IPP for a forward or 60% for a defenceman is almost certainly going to regress negatively, and the same for a 15% OISH% for a forward and a 13% OISH% for a defenceman. Cool? Cool. Here are some skaters that are likely riding a bit hot to start the season.

Jordan Kyrou

This is tough because it's not hard to see Kyrou, and the Blues in general, being a bit better offensively whenever Robert Thomas makes his return, especially if he cuts a couple weeks of his timeline. However, Kyrou is sitting at an 87.5% IPP right now. He has had high IPPs for most of his career, but usually closer to the 75% range. The worrisome part is that the team is shooting 10.2% with him on the ice, which is a four-year low but not far off last year's 10.6%. Even at an 11% OISH%, the team would be scoring about a quarter-goal more per 60 minutes, or maybe 5-6 goals in a full season. St. Louis is just really having a tough time creating offence.

At this point, it's probably selling low on Kyrou, and I would wait until Thomas returns to see if they can generate some magic. However, Kyrou is on a 72-point pace right now and I doubt things get much better over the balance of the season. I would likely rather risk that they can go on a two-month hot streak at some point than sell Kyrou for his value right now, which isn't super high.

Kirill Marchenko

It has been a great start for Marchenko, who is at a point-per-game pace right now with six goals and nine assists in 15 games. There is a giant red flag here, though, as he managed an IPP rate of 52.1% as a rookie and 52.5% as a sophomore, but is sitting at 83.3% in his third year. Not that we can't expect improvement in this area from a young player – Travis Konecny was under 70% across the first three seasons of his career but is 78% over the last three seasons – but that is a huge jump. A little under 70% for Marchenko, at his other current rates, would mean 12 points instead of 15 points. That would turn into a 13-point difference over the rest of the season.

Marchenko has definitely taken steps forward in the league and Columbus is a lot better offensively than I expected them to be. With that said, Marchenko is likely closer to a 60 or 65-point/82-game player the rest of the season rather than the point-per-game guy he's been. Maybe someone will bite on him in the trade market, but the fact he's not shooting a lot (2.4 shots per game) and doesn't bring much for other peripherals is a drag. Given his draft cost, it might be better just to hold him and see how far this can go.

Neal Pionk

It has been a great start in Winnipeg, but let's be honest with ourselves: Pionk is not going to be a point-per-game defenceman this season. The warning signs are all there: Career-high personal shooting percentage of 9.1%, career-high IPP of 47.2%, and the team is shooting an absurd 18% with him on the ice (prior career-high mark of 11.3%). Even just being at 12%, which would still be a career-best mark, rather than that 18% would cut him down to 11 points and a 56-point pace. And that's if he stayed at a career-best rate.

This all depends on his value in the trade market. If I have him on my roster and can deal him as if he's a top-25 defenceman, I probably move on from him and use him to improve my roster elsewhere. It is probably worth seeing what he can fetch right now because things will not get better than they have been.