Ramblings: Updates on Domi, Johnson, Dunn, Ingram, and Georgiev; Woll Earns Shutout; Improvements for Eklund and Horvat – November 21

Michael Clifford

2024-11-21

Toronto hosted Vegas on Wednesday night, and the Maple Leafs were already without Auston Matthews, who has been out of action for over two weeks. The recent update on Matthews was that there's a hope he can return to action sometime next week, but given that he's been day-to-day for most of November already, we shouldn't hold our breaths. Max Pacioretty has also been out of action, and Calle Jarnkrok has been injured all season.

There was another notable injury to come through on Wednesday:

Domi had been pointless in six games since the Matthews injury, but this effectively means that their first- and third-line centres are out of action. It puts a lot on the shoulders of John Tavares.

The injury woes continued for the Leafs on Wednesday night as Matthew Knies took a hard hit from Vegas defenceman Zach Whitecloud in the second period and left the game, not to return. Whitecloud did catch Knies in the head, so there is reason for concern here. We will wait for an update from the team.

Toronto did manage the win, though, earning a 3-0 shutout victory over Vegas. Joseph Woll got the start for the Leafs, and it was easily his best start of the season by stopping all 31 shots faced. It was his first shutout in nearly three years (November 21st, 2021).

William Nylander did the damage for the Leafs as he had a goal (PP), an assist, a block, and six total shots on the evening. He now has 13 goals and 22 points in 20 games on the campaign.

Fraser Minten scored his first NHL goal, finishing a nice setup from Nylander in the first period. With all the injuries the team has among the forward group, he may get some run here for the team.

Mitch Marner chipped in with a pair of assists (one on the PP), a shot, and a hit. He now has 26 points in 20 games through the first quarter of the NHL schedule.

Pontus Holmberg scored the empty-net tally for the Leafs, and he skated nearly 17 minutes for his highest TOI total of the season.

Adin Hill took the loss for Vegas, allowing two goals on 23 shots.

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An update on Connor Ingram:

It doesn't seem too serious right now, but we'll wait for more from the team.

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Good news for Columbus as Kent Johnson looks to be on the verge of returning:

Johnson had five points in four games before the injury and it'll be interesting to see if he can help Adam Fantilli's production woes.

A bit of bad news for Columbus on the injury front:

Lindstrom has had known back issues for months, so this tracks, and it's good that he should be expected to return this season. All that said, back surgeries of any nature always scare me a bit.

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It appears as Alexandar Georgiev will be back in net for Colorado very soon:

Keep an eye on Goalie Post for updates.  

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Timo Meier was at practice and skating in his usual lineup spot on Wednesday so hopefully whatever that back injury is was very minor.

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Seattle has been without defenceman Vince Dunn since the fourth game of the season, but things are trending in the right direction for his return:

Dunn did not suit up Wednesday night, and the coach said after practice he’ll be a couple weeks yet, but a good sign nonetheless.

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Carolina went into Philadelphia on Wednesday night and the Flyers did a good job of hanging in the game for the most part, but the Hurricanes just simply took over in the third period. Carolina got third-period goals from Sebastian Aho, Jack Roslovic, and Jordan Staal about six minutes part to take a 1-1 tie into a dominant 4-1 lead, and that's how things would finish.

Jalen Chatfield scored in the first period for Carolina, his first goal of the season. He also had an assist on the Staal goal and finished the game with two shots. He has just six points in 18 games on the season, but that pace is a career-high as his production has improved with a larger role on the team.

Aho's goal was the first of the season for him at 5-on-5. He and Andrei Svechnikov now have two (2) combined goals at 5-on-5 on 67 total shots. It is safe to say they are both due to go on a little hot streak, which is terrifying to think about when we consider that Roslovic is now up to 10 goals on the season overall. Aho assisted on that goal, so he's just off a point-per-game pace with 17 in 18 contests.

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Pyotr Kochetkov wasn't overly busy but made most of the saves he needed to, stopping 18 of 19 shots for the win.

Ryan Poehling had the lone goal for the Flyers.

Ivan Fedotov played well enough again, but allowed four goals on 37 shots in the loss. He has been better over his last handful of starts, and that's important with Samuel Ersson still on the shelf.  

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Dallas did much the same to San Jose as Carolina did to Philadelphia by really pulling away as the game wore on, taking a 1-1 game after the first period and turning it into a 5-2 win. The top line came alive for the Stars as Jason Robertson had a goal and two assists while both Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston had a goal and an assist.

That was Robertson's second multi-point game of the season, and he finished with four shots and two hits. He still has just 11 points in 18 games but hopefully a sign of a turnaround.

Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov had the other goals for Dallas. Benn had a solid overall night with four shots, a block, and a hit.

Thomas Harley managed an assist, a shot, and three blocks. Harley is back on pace for a 40-point season and he's done that without a power play point thus far. There is a lot more upside to come for the young blue liner.

Mikael Granlund had a goal (SH), an assist, with one shot and a hit in the loss. He is back over a point-per-game status with 22 points in 21 games. Jake Walman had the other goal for San Jose, posting five total shots.

Jake Oettinger made 21 saves for the win while MacKenzie Blackwood allowed three goals on 29 shots in the loss.

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Joey Daccord posted a 24-save shutout as Seattle took a 3-0 win at home to Nashville. That was Daccord's first shutout of the season but brings his overall save percentage up to .923 in 13 starts. Going back to last season, Daccord ranks third by save percentage (.917) among goalies with at least 50 starts as he's kept his tremendous play rolling.

Brandon Montour had a great fantasy night for the Kraken with a tally, a helper, five shots, and two PIMs. He now has a 56-point/82-game pace this season as he rebounded nicely from a down year in 2023-24.

Chandler Stephenson had a three-point night by assisting on all three goals. He has 12 assists on the year but just one goal and 20 shots, so his fantasy value is still very meagre.

Juuse Saros was solid for Nashville but took the loss after allowing two goals on 35 shots.

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Even without Tage Thompson in the lineup, Buffalo managed a huge road win in Los Angeles on Thursday night with a 1-0 shutout of the Los Angeles Kings. Jason Zucker played the hero with an early third-period power play goal, the only puck to enter either net on the night.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen posted a 23-save shutout, and that's pushed his save percentage up to .909 on the season, and just behind his mark from last season (.910).

Rasmus Dahlin had another solid multi-cat night with a power play assist, a shot, a block, two PIMs, and three hits. After a slow start, he has 5 goals, 10 assists, 39 shots, 9 hits, 17 blocks, and eight power play points in his last 11 games. He has been one of the best fantasy defencemen over the last month.

David Rittich was solid in net for Los Angeles but took the loss by allowing that one goal on 19 shots.

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Going through tracking data from AllThreeZones, and something stood out to me: the league average of zone entries that are carried in (vs. dumped in or passed in) is dropping. Among forwards at 5-on-5, here are the league averages over the last four seasons:

Season% Of Entries Carried In
2021-2255.2%
2022-2353.2%
2023-2452%
2024-2550.4%

The percentages of entries that were passed in had been dropping but have rebounded so far in the early portions of the 2024-25 season. In other words, a few years ago a 60% carried entry rate was good but not high-end whereas that would be far above average now.

It is worth seeing if anyone is succeeding despite this drop, so let's compare players to what they did in 2023-24. Samples are still limited, so keep that in mind, and we are going to restrict our data to players with at least 200 tracked minutes last season and 60 tracked minutes this season. Here are some forwards who have improved their percentage of entries being carried in.

At the top is Mason Marchment, who had a down year in this regard last season but has rebounded very well. Behind him is Brandon Tanev, which I'm not buying into yet considering he has a long history of not doing anything like this, but the next two names after them are both from the same team, and that caught my eye:

As things stand on Wednesday morning, Kyle Palmieri has the second-highest assists-per-minute rate at 5-on-5 of his last 10 seasons, while Bo Horvat's is a career-high. That second part might catch some readers by surprise, considering Horvat has largely been a fantasy disappointment with 14 points in 19 games. It is worth noting that he is shooting 4.7% at 5-on-5 after posting a three-year average of 11.2% from 2021-2024. If he is at that mark, rather than what he's done, he has eight goals in 19 games and there's probably less consternation about his production.

It is also notable that Horvat has just two (!) power play points on the season. Not that he's been a big power play producer since getting to Long Island, but his first two seasons with the team gave us one power play point every five games. He is about one every 10 games this season. Once his shooting percentage rebounds, if the power play can ever right itself (a healthy Mathew Barzal would help), there could be a big production rise coming from Horvat. Barzal's injury timeline was a return in late November or early December, so fantasy managers might want to check in to see how cheap Horvat is to acquire. I suspect he'll be much more productive over the final four months.

There has also been a sharp increase for a young San Jose Sharks forward:

Only nine Sharks forwards have reached 175 minutes at 5-on-5, but Eklund leads them by primary assist rate at 5-on-5, and by a whopping 42%. Across the league, his primary assist rate is in the 89th percentile of all forwards with at least 175 minutes played.

Eklund has also improved his shot attempt rate at all strengths, too. That has jumped by 23.5%, so what was a fourth-line shot attempt rate is now a second-line shot attempt rate. He is missing the net a fair bit, but once that corrects itself, his shots per game will rise.

It may take a couple years for the Sharks and their young core to start hitting their stride, but there are important and noticeable improvements to Eklund's game. He could be a 20-goal, 60-point forward this year as it is, and that indicates what his upside can be down the road once the blue line is replenished and young stars like Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith come into their own. Eklund might be a future winger version of Robert Thomas.  

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