Ramblings: Updates on Jarvis, Matthews, Kaprizov; Multipoint Marner; Streaming Dach, Sprong, Rittich & More (Nov 25)
Brennan Des
2024-11-25
On Sunday, the Blues fired head coach Drew Bannister and replaced him with Jim Montgomery – who the Bruins had fired five days ago. Read Ian's take on the fantasy implications of this move here.
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Fortunately, the lower-body injury which kept Kirill Kaprizov out of Saturday's clash with Calgary doesn't seem serious. He's officially day-to-day and hasn't yet been ruled out of Monday's joust with the Jets.
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After missing the past couple weeks with an upper-body injury, it looks like Seth Jarvis will make his return on Monday against Dallas.
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Auston Matthews participated in Sunday's team skate, adding fuel to hope he'll feature in Wednesday's game against the Panthers. It's worth mentioning that an optional team skate the morning before a game tends to be less intense than a dedicated practice day, so Tuesday's session should give us more insight into Matthews' status for Wednesday's game.
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Sunday was another two-point night for Mitch Marner. He's managed that feat seven times in his last eight games – which also happens to be the duration of Matthews' absence thus far.
Toronto improves to 7-1 without Matthews this season. Their record during this stretch ranks first in the league, as does their 32.3% success rate with the man advantage. That's a far cry from the woeful 10% rate the Leafs held before Matthews got injured. I'm not saying Matthews made the power play worse, but perhaps the fact that he wasn't 100% had an impact on the team's early struggles?
What a season John Tavares is having. As he handed Matthews the captaincy this summer, I think many expected the theme of relinquishing control would extend to the scoresheet as well. Tavares was coming off a 67-point pace, which had been his lowest output in recent seasons. Yet surprisingly, at 34 years of age, he's rediscovered his youthful prime to post 20 points in 20 games this season. His 18 faceoff wins on Sunday helped me steal the FOWs category in one of my matchups, and I'm sure his eight shots had a similar effect for others.
Playing his first game with brother Alex as a teammate, William Nylander managed a goal and an assist. He has 17 points in his last 12 games (1.42 points/game) – a big step up from the seven points in nine games (0.78 p/g) he started the year with.
With two points on Sunday, Logan Cooley is staving off the sophomore slump. The 20-year-old forward is scoring at an impressive 62-point pace this season – up from last year's 44-point output.
On the topic of young talent, Fraser Minten registered his first career assist on Sunday, giving him two points through two games this season. He's benefitted from skating on PP1, but I don't expect that will last long as Matthews is expected to return soon.
Joseph Woll stopped 23 of the 25 shots he faced to record a fourth-straight victory. This was Woll's second consecutive start, but don't interpret that as him stealing the 1A role from Anthony Stolarz just yet. Stolarz had to bear a heavier load with Woll injured to start the year, so some extra rest now will keep him fresh as the campaign progresses. That's especially important given that Stolarz has never played more than 28 games in a season. Since Woll returned on October 24th, he and Stolarz have started an identical seven games. Expect an equal share going forward unless one significantly outperforms the other for a sustained period.
He came away with the loss, but Karel Vejmelka had a strong game against the Leafs, especially considering he had just played the night before in Pittsburgh. A lack of run support leaves him with a disappointing 2-6 record on the season, but his individual excellence is exemplified by a 2.30 GAA, .926 SV% and 8.7 goals saved above expected (via Evolving Hockey). Vejmelka has comfortably outperformed Connor Ingram this season and should be considered the top option in Utah's net right now.
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This week's schedule is a unique one as no games will be played on Thursday, since it's Thanksgiving in the US. That gives us four days where 20+ teams are in action (Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday), leaving Tuesday and Sunday as lighter days on which you should be able to incorporate streamers into your lineup. Boston, Vancouver, and Montreal are the three teams that play on both those light nights, so players from those teams make for great waiver wire additions this week. Here are a few names to consider:
Jake DeBrusk (LW/RW; Vancouver Canucks; Yahoo: 34% Rostered)
As Ian mentioned in yesterday's Ramblings, blossoming chemistry with Elias Pettersson has DeBrusk producing more lately. The 28-year-old forward has nine points through 10 games this month and has been enjoying a top power-play role while J.T. Miller is away from the team. Much of what I said about DeBrusk also applies to Kiefer Sherwood, who is also thriving in an expanded role. The only reason I listed DeBrusk here instead of Sherwood is because the latter is rostered in more leagues, making it less likely you'll find him on your waiver wire. Sherwood is a hotter commodity due to his added layer of physical impact as he leads the league in hits by a wide margin.
Pavel Zacha (C/LW; Boston Bruins; Yahoo: 10% Rostered)
What kind of silly goose endorses a player scoring at a 26-point pace this year? Me. That's who. The Bruins have only played two games since Jim Montgomery got fired, but Zacha skated over 20 minutes in both of those games, totalling nine shots in the process. He's in a good spot beside star sniper David Pastrnak and looks primed to benefit from that new-coach boost. Boston has a favourable schedule this week due to the light-night factor mentioned above, but also because of the teams they're facing. Matchups against Montreal and Pittsburgh – two clubs that have struggled to keep the puck out this year – puts Boston's skaters in a position to succeed this week.
Kirby Dach (C/RW; Montreal Canadiens; Yahoo: 4% Rostered)
It's been a frustrating season for Dach, who's still shaking off cobwebs after missing almost all of last season due to a torn MCL and ACL in his knee. He hasn't found the scoresheet much this year, but some of that seems fuelled by bad luck as his current shooting percentages are uncharacteristically low. Dach has just one goal despite boasting 5.7 individual expected goals (ixG), adding weight to the bad luck/shaky confidence theory. Although the results thus far haven't been great, he remains in a prime position to succeed, seeing a prominent role in both the top six and first power-play unit. He acknowledged a need to elevate his play after a particularly poor performance on Saturday against Vegas, so let's see if he can start to turn things around this week. Dach provides an extra bit of value in leagues that track hits, averaging roughly two per game. However, you may want to stay away if your league tracks plus/minus, as he's among the league's worst in that stat, currently sitting at a minus-15. If you like the Habs' schedule this week but you're not a believer in Dach, Brendan Gallagher is another name to consider. The 32-year-old forward is widely available in fantasy leagues and in good form right now with 10 points in his last 12 games.
Daniel Sprong (RW; Seattle Kraken; Yahoo: 3% Rostered)
It's been a couple weeks since the Kraken re-acquired Sprong, and although early results aren't eye-popping, I'm optimistic about his outlook this week. On the surface, you might be discouraged to see that Sprong only has one goal in four games with Seattle, but he's seen more opportunity lately, posting ice times of 14:10 and 18:36 over his past two games. That extra opportunity has helped him rack up nine shots over these last two outings. He's currently skating beside Chandler Stephenson and Jaden Schwartz on Seattle's second line, and is seeing significant power-play action as well. This week, the Kraken have two games against Anaheim and two games against San Jose. That's four games against the league's weakest defenses (based on expected goals against stats from Natural Stat Trick). Available in most fantasy leagues, Sprong is in a prime position to produce this week.
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If anyone reading this is a lawyer, I'll need help drafting a liability waiver to wash my hands of the following goaltending endorsements. Predicting a goalie's performance over the course of a full season is tough as it is, but trying to project how they'll play in a measly one-week sample – which is even more prone to variance – is a fool's task. Fortunately for you, I'm a fool. If you're in need of some netminding support this week, here are a couple names to consider. I should also mention that because of American Thanksgiving on Thursday, most teams have a back-to-back set on Friday and Saturday, so there should be plenty of opportunities for spot starts from backup goalies.
David Rittich (G; Los Angeles Kings; Yahoo: 27% Rostered)
Don't look now but Big Save Dave has been quietly excellent this month, allowing a total of seven goals in his last six appearances. He's jumped into a bigger role recently as a result of Darcy Kuemper getting injured on November 13th. Through six games in November, Rittich sports a .938 save percentage, 1.35 GAA, and has saved 3.41 goals above expected (via Evolving Hockey). He's insulated by an excellent defense in LA, which sports a league-low expected goals against per game of 2.40. The Kings have favourable matchups against the Sharks and Ducks this week – although that game against Anaheim is part of a back-to-back set, so Rittich may start the next night in Ottawa instead. Regardless, he should see significant action this week given Kuemper's injury and his own strong play.
Elvis Merzlikins (G; Columbus Blue Jackets; Yahoo: 12% Rostered)
His numbers on the season aren't great, but Merzlikins is currently riding a four-game winning streak. This pick is primarily motivated by Columbus' opponents this week as the Canadiens, Flames, and Blackhawks are all below average in both goals per game and expected goals per game (via Natural Stat Trick).
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Thanks for reading! Hope you have a great week :)