Ramblings: Ehlers Update; Cirelli Injured; Hot Streaks from Bjorkstrand, Lee & Cooley (Dec 9)
Brennan Des
2024-12-09
Sincerest sympathies to anyone who trusted the usually reliable Jonathan Quick for a spot start on Sunday. After allowing just four goals across his first five outings, Quick has allowed 15 in his last three. Igor Shesterkin didn't dress for the game because his wife was in labour, but I imagine he'll be available for Monday's battle with the Blackhawks.
Speaking of Chicago, netminder Petr Mrazek is expected to miss a week or two with a groin injury. Arvid Soderblom, who has been decent this season, should see significant action until Mrazek returns.
Seattle's 'third' line of Eeli Tolvanen, Shane Wright and Oliver Bjorkstrand led the team to a 7-5 victory over the Rangers on Sunday. The trio was excellent against New York, but they've been playing well for a while now. Through 95 minutes together this season, they hold an expected goals share of 62%, outscoring opponents 8-3.
Bjorkstrand had his best game of the season on Sunday, racking up two goals and two assists. He struggled out of the gate this year, posting five points in his first 13 appearances, which led to him being a healthy scratch on November 5th. That seemed to be an effective wake up call as Bjorkstrand now has 15 points in 15 games since the scratch. He's averaging ~16 minutes per game during this 'post-scratch era' – up from the 14 minutes he was averaging prior. He's flirted with a 60-point pace in four of the past five seasons and looks primed to do so again this year.
The healthy scratch treatment is also proving effective for Wright. After starting the year with two points in his first 18 appearances, the fourth overall pick from 2022 was scratched for a few games. He's come back with a vengeance, racking up nine points in his last eight games, including a goal and assist on Sunday.
Eeli Tolvanen had a three-point showing against the Rangers, giving him seven points in his last seven appearances. I'm hesitant to endorse him in fantasy formats because he doesn't get a lot of ice time, but he could be a solid short-term option given how hot he and his linemates are. Tolvanen is especially valuable in leagues that count hits, averaging 2.4 per game.
Wright isn't the only high-profile pick from Seattle that's in good from right now. Two assists against the Rangers gives Matty Beniers six points in his last five games.
Minute-muncher Chandler Stephenson also tailed two assists on Sunday. Stephenson's overall production isn't bad, but his offensive output has been sporadic. He hasn't shown enough consistency for me to feel confident starting him in my fantasy lineup every night. He is valuable in leagues that track faceoff wins though, sitting top 5 in faceoff wins as I write this.
Entering the game with just four points in 25 games, K'Andre Miller picked up a goal and assist on Sunday. He was largely helped by a struggling Philipp Grubauer, who probably could have done more to stop both goals that Miller was involved in. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see if Miller's able to perform better now that Jacob Trouba's no longer in town. Miller saw significant minutes beside Trouba this year and the results were not pretty. I imagine Miller's impressive skillset will have more opportunity to flourish beside different partners.
New York's top trio of Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafrenière seems to be back together and in form after some recent line shuffling. Lafrenière scored on Sunday, while Panarin and Trocheck each tallied two points.
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With significant changes to Tampa's power play this season – namely the departure of Steven Stamkos, arrival of Jake Guentzel, and promotion of Brandon Hagel – the team understandably needed some time to adjust. After ranking 26th in the league with a disappointing 14.7% success rate in October, the Lightning have been in form since the beginning of November, sitting second in the league with a 34.9% conversion rate. After scoring two power-play goals on Sunday, they've now scored a power-play goal in six-straight games.
Nikita Kucherov got the primary assist on both of those PPGs against the Canucks. Sidelined for Tampa's last two games because of an injury, Kucherov made up for lost time with three points against Vancouver.
Brayden Point factored in on all four of Tampa's goals Sunday, giving him back-to-back four-point games.
Anthony Cirelli left the game with an apparent injury in the first period. Coach Jon Cooper didn't have any updates after the game but said they should learn more on Monday. Riding shotgun beside a red-hot Brandon Hagel has helped Cirelli to a career-best start featuring 24 points in 25 games.
With a goal on Sunday, Quinn Hughes extended his point streak to seven games. Roughly a third of the season is complete and Vancouver's captain is still scoring at a hundred-point pace.
Pius Suter continues to benefit from J.T. Miller's absence. An assist on Sunday gives Suter nine points in nine games since Miller announced his leave from the team. Ian shared a few thoughts on Suter a couple days ago, so I'll avoid repeating them here.
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The New York Islanders started Sunday with the league-worst 11.5% success rate on the power play, but against all odds and expectations, scored two power-play markers against Ottawa to secure a 4-2 victory. The Senators deserved a better fate after outshooting the Isles 31 to 13.
Given the tough task of starting back-to-back nights, Ilya Sorokin stopped 29 of the 31 shots thrown his way to secure the victory over Ottawa. He's seen a heavier workload lately as Semyon Varlamov is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
With two power-play helpers against the Sens, Noah Dobson extended his point streak to four games. He's finally showing signs of life in recent weeks after opening the campaign with just eight points in his first 21 games – a far cry from the 73-point pace he posted last season.
After posting a goal and assist on Sunday, Anders Lee now has nine points in his last six games. The 34-year-old forward has enjoyed an expanded role these past weeks, with Anthony Duclair and Mathew Barzal injured. In October, while Barzal was still in the lineup, Lee posted three points in 10 games while averaging 15 and a half minutes a night. Since November 1st – which was New York's first game without Barzal – Lee has 20 points in 19 outings and is seeing over 18 minutes per game. With Barzal skating on his own and having roughly a week left in his original recovery timetable, I fear Lee won't be able to maintain this pace for much longer, but we may as well enjoy it while it lasts.
Tim Stützle tallied two assists on Sunday and is up to 34 points on the year. After posting a 77-point pace last year, he's pacing for 103 this season. His increased output is partially explained by a more successful Senators' power play. Last season, the Sens had an underwhelming 18% PP success rate and Stützle posted 20 PPPs through 75 games. This year, Ottawa boasts a 25.8% success rate and Stützle already has 12 PPPs after just 27 outings. You'll see a similar pattern for Drake Batherson, who tallied a power-play assist on Sunday and is scoring more this year than he was last year. Some smooth puck movement preceded Ottawa's power-play goal against the Isles on Sunday.
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Columbus' new-look top line of James van Riemsdyk, Sean Monahan and Kent Johnson led the team to a 4-1 win over Winnipeg on Sunday. Johnson scored two goals, van Riemsdyk tallied two assists, and Monahan chipped in a helper as well. I'm not sure how long this combination lasts, but JVR could provide some sneaky fantasy value from this position.
Zach Werenski stayed hot with an assist on Sunday, bringing him to 28 points through 27 appearances this year. Nine of those points have come with the man advantage, which is worth mentioning because he tallied just 12 PPPs in 70 games last year. Much of Columbus' power-play offense runs through Werenski as he's registered a point on 90% of PP goals scored while he's on the ice.
Kyle Connor's snipe on Sunday was his 15th of the year, leaving only six players ahead of him in the league's goal scoring race. It's worth noting that nine of Connor's goals came in his first 10 games, giving him just six in his last 19.
It sounds like Nikolaj Ehlers should start skating again this week. As someone who's rostering Ehlers right now, I'm not holding my breath for a return any time soon. Assuming his solo skates go well, he'd likely need a full-contact team practice before we could start talking about a return. Ehlers' absence obviously has an impact on our fantasy rosters, but it's also had an impact on the Jets. Winnipeg went from averaging 3.88 goals per game before Ehlers got injured, to just two goals per game without him in the lineup. The power-play went from 32% to 13%. There are other factors at play as well, but Ehlers adds a level of depth and dynamism to Winnipeg's offense that the team is sorely missing right now.
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Up against New Jersey's potent offense, Scott Wedgewood stood tall and posted a 25-save shutout. This is now the third game he's played for the Avalanche. In the first, he stopped all 22 shots he faced in relief for a struggling Alexandar Georgiev. In the second, he surrendered four goals but still had a decent showing against a strong Hurricanes' team. The sample is small, but early returns are promising. Although Georgiev is coming off a good start against Detroit, he's struggled more than he's succeeded this year, leaving the door wide open for Wedgewood to steal some starts going forward.
In his second game back from a six-week long injury absence, Ross Colton tickled the twine and now boasts nine goals through 12 games. Of course, the rest of those goals were scored early in the year when many of Colorado's forwards were out injured, allowing Colton to see 20 minutes of action a night along with top power-play duties. He'll be hard pressed to match his early-season output now that he's relegated to a minor power-play role and just 13-14 minutes per game.
An assist on Sunday gives Valeri Nichushkin 10 points in his last nine games. He took some time to shake off the rust as he went pointless in his first three appearances, but it seems he's firing on all cylinders again. Nichushkin is still available in 41% of Yahoo Leagues as I write this.
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Stop what you're doing and go check your waiver wire, because in 61% of Yahoo Leagues, there's a gem just sitting there. With a goal and assist on Sunday, Logan Cooley now has 11 points in his last eight games. Four of those points have come with the man advantage as he's been promoted to Utah's top power-play unit during this hot streak. As evidenced below, he has the talent to stay on PP1 all year.
Sunday's goal against Utah broke a 12-game goal drought for Joel Farabee. His scoring struggles weren't for lack of trying as he's put at least three shots on net in each of his last eight appearances. Individual and team shooting percentages while he's on the ice suggest he's suffered from a bit of bad luck thus far, so let's hope his fortunes change going forward. He's in a good position, seeing significant minutes beside quality linemates in Travis Konecny and Sean Couturier.
A goal on Sunday gives Owen Tippett four goals in his last four games. Tippett entered this stretch with four goals in 24 games but is finally heating up on a line with rookie sensation Matvei Michkov.
After missing about a month of action due to injury, Jamie Drysdale had a solid return to the lineup on Sunday. Through 19 minutes of action, he managed a hit, two blocks and a goal that was overturned due to a questionable goaltender interference call.
Also making his return after a month away, Samuel Ersson allowed four goals on 25 shots – although it's hard to fault him after looking at the goals he gave up.
Making his second start of the season, Jaxson Stauber turned aside 21 of the 23 shots he faced en route to a 4-2 victory over Philly. His first start was a 29-save shutout over Vegas, so he's certainly establishing himself as a reliable backup to Karel Vejmelka while Connor Ingram is injured.
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Rookie netminder Dustin Wolf made several strong saves early against the Stars but faltered in the third period as Dallas scored four goals unanswered. Wolf has frequently displayed high-end ability this year, but hasn't been in great form recently, allowing 14 goals over his last three appearances. Part of the growing pains for an elite young netminder.
With a goal and assist on Sunday, Jason Robertson is up to nine points in his last 10 games, finally showing some signs of life after an awful start to the season. We'd like to see him shoot the puck more as this season's 2.4 shots per game sit well below previous season averages of 2.8, 3.8 and 3.0.
In a similar way, Robertson's linemate Wyatt Johnston is also showing signs of life lately. After scoring on Sunday, Johnston has registered at least a point in nine of his last 10 games. That's a high level of consistency which had been missing in previous weeks. Perhaps we're witnessing the start of a turnaround for Dallas' stars.
While Sunday's scoring was spread throughout Dallas' lineup, Thomas Harley had a particularly strong fantasy showing, posting two goals, three shots and two blocks.
In his first game back after a couple of healthy scratches, Andrei Kuzmenko tallied an assist. Encouraging, but we'll need to see a lot more from him before talking about him as a fantasy target again.
Jonathan Huberdeau extended his point streak to four games with a goal against Dallas.
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Thanks for reading! Hope you have an awesome week ahead :)