Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. The Midseason Guide will be available in just over a month’s time, on January 16! The plan is no different from previous seasons, where you’ll receive second-half projections, insider tips, goaltending, peripheral stats, trade block, fantasy prospects, and plenty of analytics. It’s all there for you again. 

Reserve your copy here, so you have it ready in time to make that strong second-half push in your fantasy league.       

2. In Tuesday’s Ramblings, I talked about players I was high on for fantasy that just haven’t panned out, and are unlikely to do so. Today, let’s go in the other direction and look at players I wasn’t high on that have been good-to-excellent this year. As usual, data is from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools. Also, when preseason projections are mentioned, those are for a full 82-game schedule, so keep that in mind. And it’s not as if these are players I thought would be outright bad, just that I had them ranked much lower than where they were being drafted. (At time of writing:)

Adrian Kempe

In a lot of drafts I did, I saw Kempe often going around the top-40 picks, so late in the third round or early in the fourth. Among only skaters, I had him as a sixth-round pick, so when we include goalies, he was closer to a seventh-round pick. The big problem was I thought there would be a drop in his power play production, and there has been: He averaged 0.35 PPPs per game last season and sits at 0.18 PPPs per game this season. Kempe has also seen a huge rebound in his goal and assist rates at even strength, and that has more than made up the difference in the drop in power play points. As things stand, he’s a top-25 player in standard Yahoo! leagues, and a top-40 player in ESPN points leagues. He has been as advertised.

Kempe is shooting 17.9%, and that helps a lot, but he also averaged 15.3% from 2021-2023. Even if that falls off a bit, a (hopeful) rise in power play production should offset that. He is once again in the second tier of multi-category wingers in fantasy hockey. (dec12)

3. Sam Reinhart

I thought this was an easy one: ‘Player who has never shot 20% before in his career and averaged 15.5% in his first two seasons with Florida shot 24.5% en route to a career year, which won’t be replicated’. Reinhart said, ‘You’re right, I won’t replicate 24.5% shooting. Instead, I’ll shoot 24.7%, you a****le.’ As things stand on Wednesday afternoon, Reinhart is second in the league with 19 goals and leads the league with four short-handed tallies. Just another unreal start to this season.

Again, this isn’t a player I was incredibly low on; my preseason ranking for him was a 45-goal scorer and a top-40 fantasy hockey option. I just did not think he would get back to his 57-goal total while pushing for 100 points, and worth a second-round pick. To date, he’s pacing for 54 goals and 110 points.

Reinhart is inside the top-5 for standard Yahoo! fantasy rankings, and inside the top-10 for ESPN points leagues. I still have doubts he’ll shoot in the neighbourhood of 25%, but even if he’s a 15% shooter the rest of the season, with his current assist pace, Reinhart will be a 40-goal scorer and 95-point player. He is even on pace for over 100 hits for the first time in his career. Barring a lengthy cold streak, this looks like a big miss. (dec12)

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4. As mentioned above, there are players who were due for positive regression that are now getting it (looking at you, Zach Hyman), players who were due to go the other way and it’s now happening (sorry, Cale Makar), but we have a pretty good idea of who will be successful fantasy options this year and who won’t. Things can change, but I wanted to take some time to go over players I was high on before the season and I’ve been flat-out wrong about. (At time of writing:)

Timo Meier

Presuming an 82-game season, my projection for Meier was 42 goals, 35 assists, 297 shots, and 132 hits. His current 82-game pace is for 25 goals, 31 assists, 263 shots, and 161 hits. At least the hits are looking good.

The big part of my projection was assuming he’d have a top power play role for the vast majority of the season. He started there, but it wasn’t long until he was supplanted by Stefan Noesen, and that’s been the case for nearly two months now – it has been 25 games since they made the change, and New Jersey has the league’s top power play in that time. It is safe to say that without an injury, Meier isn’t getting that role back.

There is still good multi-cat value, but Meier was often going as a top-40 pick in September drafts, which is a stretch now. He won’t be a 75-point player without top power play time, so we’re going to have to chalk this one up to a loss. (dec10)

5. Juraj Slafkovsky

I drafted 20 teams this year and don’t have Slafkovský on any of them. That was more because his draft position was way too inflated, and not because I wasn’t relatively high on him. My preseason projection was 25 goals, 40 assists, 193 shots, and 164 hits. At time of writing, his 82-game pace is 7 goals, 41 assists, 106 shots, and 222 hits. The assists and hits are good, the shots and goals are not.

From Christmas onward last season, Slafkovsky averaged 6.5 shots per 60 minutes. The assumption was he’d hold onto a 19(ish)-minute role on the top line and marginally improve on that. It clearly hasn’t happened, but what is curious is he’s landing just 40.7% of his shot attempts on goal; that number was 47.7% in his first two seasons. Teams are generally landing fewer shot attempts on goal as block and miss rates have increased, but this is extreme. Even if he just starts landing more of his attempts on goal, his shot rate will rise, but he clearly won’t be a 25-goal scorer, so this is a big miss.

Adam Fantilli

If you told me back in September that, two months into the season, Columbus would be seventh by goals-for per game, and higher than teams like New Jersey, Dallas, the New York Rangers, and Colorado, I would have drafted even more Fantilli than I did. (Out of 20 teams drafted, I took him nine times. Nine!) My preseason 82-game projection was 31 goals, 33 assists, 227 shots, and 113 hits. His current pace is 15 goals, 24 assists, 170 shots, and 128 hits. Hey, we got the hits right again.

What really hurts here is the same as with Meier: A lack of a power play role. Fantilli has seen some top PP time, but is seventh among their forwards in percentage of power play time. With Kent Johnson back and healthy, and with Yegor Chinakhov potentially back soon, Fantilli may not see a regular top PP role this season. It still wouldn’t be enough for Fantilli to get to the 30/30 mark, though, so we can write off 2024-25 (‘he’ll be a great draft value in September’, I tell myself). (dec10)

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6. If Shane Pinto was your Friday streamer, congratulations. Pinto scored two of Ottawa’s goals, breaking a 15-game point drought. Because of an injury, Pinto’s last point before Friday dated all the way back to October 19, while his last goal happened during the first game of the season. Josh Norris‘s absence for a significant portion of last season elevated Pinto to a scoring line and to some success (27 PTS in 41 GP) after he served his half-season suspension. Norris has been healthy all season, which has pushed Pinto down the lineup. (dec14)

7. The Anaheim Ducks announced that forward Trevor Zegras will miss at least six weeks after surgery to repair a torn meniscus. When the injury first happened, it certainly seemed as if things would be a lot worse than that. Do not expect him back in your fantasy lineup until the end of January, and depending on whether it takes a bit longer, maybe the team waits until after the Four Nations Cup. (dec13)

8. Good news/bad news situation for Nashville. Forward Ryan O’Reilly returned to the lineup on Thursday night, slotting in on what would be the second line. He had missed the last three games and the ‘week-to-week’ designation seemed to indicate he would miss a lot more than three games. That’s the positive. (dec13)

On the negative side, Roman Josi wasn’t in the lineup after suffering an injury in their loss to Calgary on Tuesday. No confirmation on all the details of the injury at time of writing, but Josi wasn't expected to play Saturday.  

9. JT Miller returned to the lineup for Vancouver on Thursday night. He had missed three and a half weeks after taking a leave of absence from the team. It is good to see him back in the lineup and hopefully whatever issue was going on is behind him. Miller had two assists (one PP) in his return to the Vancouver lineup, as the Canucks shut out the Florida Panthers 4-0. The Canucks had a 3-0 lead 25 minutes into the game so they rolled lines, and no forward reached 17 minutes, so Miller’s 14:17 in TOI doesn’t stand out given that context. A nice game for him to get his feet back under him after weeks away from the team. (dec13)

10. Still with the Canucks, Thatcher Demko made his long-awaited return from his "unique" lower body injury on Tuesday. It's great to see him back and I hope he has a long career moving forward, but I don't think that injury is something I am going to take my chances with, so I doubt he ends up on any of my fantasy teams for at least the next couple years. 

This also likely spells the end of Arturs Silovs' minimal fantasy value for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Kevin Lankinen has likely earned himself a sizable role the rest of the way. It would surprise me to see either goalie get a higher than 60% share of the team's starts either way. Demko may be the golden boy, but there's no need to over-exert him at this point, risking wearing him out or aggravating the injury. 

11. Will the Ducks play musical chairs with their young defencemen for a little while yet? Jackson LaCombe was back in uniform Thursday, while Olen Zellweger took the scratch. (dec13)

Yesterday, they traded veteran defenseman Cam Fowler to the Blues. Ian has the breakdown here.

12. Entering Saturday, Aliaksei Protas was up to 11 goals and 50 shots in 28 games. He’s riding hot, but he’s also been very good, so it’s a combination of playing well and getting a bit of luck. Always nice when that happens. (dec13)

13. Also entering Saturday, Zach Werenski had 10 goals and 102 shots in 29 games. It is the seventh time he’s reached double-digit goals in his career, and the only times he didn’t do it was the 2021 Bubble Season (and he still had seven goals in 35 games), and last season when he played 13 games. His goal on Thursday was also the 100^th of his career as he is one of six defencemen with 100 goals since the start of the 2016 season, Werenski’s rookie year.

Meanwhile, teammate Kent Johnson had 17 points in 15 games. He had 16 points in 42 games last season, so he’s a little bit ahead of that pace right now. (dec13)

14. Nikolai Kovalenko, in his debut with San Jose, had a trio of assists while skating on Macklin Celebrini‘s line at even strength, adding a shot and three hits. He didn't receive power play time (yet), but a great start in his new locale. (dec13)

15. Since his week of healthy scratches, Shane Wright has 11 points in 10 games (entering Saturday). He has had some good underlying numbers for most of this season, and now the production is starting to catch up to it. His third line with Oliver Bjorkstrand and Eeli Tolvanen has been tremendous at 5-on-5 for the Kraken, managing a 59% expected goal share and a plus-6 goal differential in nearly 115 minutes together. (dec13)

16. Adam Fox scored his first of the season with an empty net to get the Rangers the win on Wednesday. At time of writing, Fox was up to 25 points in 29 games, and in the 20-game slide the Rangers have been on, the team is plus-4 with him on the ice at 5-on-5 and minus-14 with him off the ice. The team is a mess, but he remains one of the best defencemen in the game. (dec12)

17. What's happening in Nashville? Thus far, they're in the race for first overall pick, but that's the opposite of where they wanted to be. 

I'm a fan of Andrew Brunette, and he seems to take any team in his first year there and turn them into a high scoring team to be reckoned with, punching above their weight on paper. However, he hasn't had a long shelf life anywhere, and it feels like his expiration date is closing in. 

Normally a coach in his second year with a team where the team gets off to a slow start is something where I would preach patience. However, GM Barry Trotz seems to have made it clear from his roster moves that the team is in a win-now window. Unfortunately, the team played above their heads last year, and the new additions just haven't gelled. 

At this point though, the Predators look like they have to pivot. The hole is too deep in the West to realistically have playoff expectations this year, so selling off a piece or two that won't be around next season anyways like Gustav Nyquist and some of the extra depth forwards send like the way to go. The draft lottery could be a bonus, but sorting out the second line centre role is a must, or even transitioning Ryan O'Reilly there and bringing in someone for the top line. 

Filip Forsberg only seems to have a star year every second season anyways, might as well continue to aim for next year. (dec11)

18. While Vince Dunn's return from injury might have a modest impact on Brandon Montour's numbers, it's Ryker Evans who stands to lose the most, with a bigger drop in ice time, and a near-full removal of his power play time. Entering Wednesday, Evans played only three of the five games since Dunn returned (missing two games with a hand injury) and had one point in those three games. 

Dunn is technically on the top power play, but for a team that splits their units fairly equally, being the QB of unit one vs unit two isn't a huge difference. Montour holds the puck and shoots enough that regardless which unit he's on, he's going to be getting points. (dec11)

19. The recent goalie trades by Colorado highlight how volatile value can be at that position, and how much it is tied to their team. If you are a top team in your win-now window, then owning a sure thing goalie that isn't moving anywhere, like Andrei Vasilevskiy or Connor Hellebuyck, locks you in best. If you don't own those sure things, then a trade can destabilize your player's value. 

On the flip side, if you need to swing for the fences or want to take as many longshot chances in the offseason in order to make up ground with a suboptimal roster, then having a few middle and lower tier goalies can allow you to have one either get traded or flourish, gifting you a top tier goalie that you can then insulate. It's a lot cheaper and quicker to take risks with goalies, so for those of you in rebuilds for example, stock up on netminders and watch at least one or two of them turn into valuable assets within a year – just don't hold them too long. (dec11)

20. To me, Mackenzie Blackwood immediately becomes a potential top-12 fantasy goalie and anyone that bought that lottery ticket in September should reap the rewards. (dec10) 

Brennan had a breakdown of the Blackwood-Alexandar Georgiev trade here.

21. Nikolaj Ehlers has returned to practice with the Jets. Ehlers’ absence obviously has an impact on our fantasy rosters, but it’s also had an impact on the Jets. At time of writing earlier this week, Winnipeg went from averaging 3.88 goals per game before Ehlers got injured, to just two goals per game without him in the lineup. The power-play went from 32% to 13%. There are other factors at play as well, but Ehlers adds a level of depth and dynamism to Winnipeg’s offense that the team is sorely missing right now. (dec9)

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!
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